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食品饮料行业:白酒稳中有进,大众品短期承压-专题研究
CS 食饮板块21H1 营收/扣非归母净利同比+15%/+20%,Q2 分别同比+6%/+10%;其中白酒/啤酒/乳制品/调味品/速冻/休闲食品21Q2 营收同比+19%/+1%/+10%/-12%/+10%/+3%,扣非净利同比+26%/-2%/-1%/-29%/-42%/-5%。白酒21Q2 收入延续较快增长,盈利能力提升显著,高端稳健, 次高端弹性凸显, 21Q2 高端/次高端/ 中端及以下酒营收同比+13%/+47%/+3%;大众品受基数效应/需求较淡/社区团购等渠道分流/原材料成本上行等因素冲击,盈利能力阶段性承压,其中调味品/休闲食品受影响较大,具备成本转嫁能力及独占渠道优势的企业展现更强抗风险能力。
白酒:高端稳健,次高端弹性凸显,势能仍足 ............................................................................................................. 4
业绩表现符合预期,Q2 高增延续,预收款表现亮眼 ............................................................................................ 4
结构维度:高端稳健,次高端增长加速 ................................................................................................................ 6
大众品:Q2 整体业绩表现承压,期待逐步改善 ........................................................................................................... 9
啤酒:Q2 多因素干扰动销,成本上涨及费投增加致盈利能力下行....................................................................... 9
乳制品:Q2 营收稳健增长,利润虽有下滑但预期改善 ....................................................................................... 10
调味品:Q2 业绩低谷,等待需求拐点 ................................................................................................................ 11
休闲食品: Q2 业绩表现承压,静待拐点 ........................................................................................................... 12
速冻食品:高基数效应下21Q2 业绩表现承压 .................................................................................................... 14
重点公司推荐 .............................................................................................................................................................. 16
风险提示.............................................................................................................................................................. 19