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餐饮旅游行业:疫情影响逐渐散去,关注优质赛道龙头个股-2020年四季度投资策略报告
2020 年上半年,申万休闲服务行业全部上市公司共实现营收377.06 亿元,同比减少82.29%,行业整体亏损12.57 亿元,扣非后整体亏损25.48 亿元,上半年业绩受疫情影响有明显下滑。
1.整体防控形势向好,现存确诊人数持续下降 ............................................................................................................ 6
2.休闲服务行业上半年业绩受疫情影响 ........................................................................................................................ 7
2.1 营收下滑,板块上半年整体亏损 ..................................................................................................................... 7
2.2 毛利率大幅下降,费用率小幅提升 ................................................................................................................. 7
2.3 全部子版块营收增速均有下滑,近其他休闲服务维持盈利 ......................................................................... 8
2.4 毛利率小幅下滑,费用率基本持平 ................................................................................................................. 8
3.端午游客同比下滑49%,跨省团队游恢复 ............................................................................................................... 9
3.1 端午假期共接待游客4880 万人次,同比下滑49%...................................................................................... 9
3.2 主要景区上半年接待游客数量下滑 ............................................................................................................... 10
3.3 跨省团队旅游恢复,景区游客承载量上调 ................................................................................................... 11
4.国外疫情持续恶化,出境游复苏仍需时间 .............................................................................................................. 11
4.1 国外确诊人数突破2500 万 ............................................................................................................................. 11
4.2 国际航线客运量大幅下滑,主要目的地受到影响 ....................................................................................... 12
5.免税新政效果显著,离岛免税市场再迎竞争 .......................................................................................................... 13
5.1 受政策调整利好离岛免税7 月快速增长 ....................................................................................................... 13
5.2 海南两家公司获批免税品经营资质 ............................................................................................................... 14
6.酒店行业仍受疫情影响,二季度环比有所改善 ...................................................................................................... 15
6.1 二季度有限服务酒店数据环比改善 ............................................................................................................... 15
6.2 中端酒店发展迅速,三大酒店集团具备先行优势 ....................................................................................... 17
6.3 酒店连锁化率仍有进步空间 ........................................................................................................................... 18
7.行业涨跌幅位于前列,估值仍于处较低位置 .......................................................................................................... 19
8.机构持仓情况 ............................................................................................................................................................. 20
8.1 机构持仓比例环比同比均下降 ....................................................................................................................... 20
8.2 全部子行业均获机构减持 ............................................................................................................................... 21
8.3 一季度主要机构均减持休闲服务行业 ........................................................................................................... 22
8.4 休闲服务行业机构持仓比例位列第五 ........................................................................................................... 22
9.投资策略 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 23
10.风险提示 ................................................................................................................................................................... 24