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社服行业:逆境中炼内功,静待疫后重振-2022H1中报综述
社服板块危中求变,下半年聚焦疫后复苏。2022H1 国内疫情防控形势更为严峻,出行受限、堂食暂停等政策对旅游、免税、餐饮等服务业造成较大影响,社服板块业绩承压明显。展望2022H2,随着疫情缓解、防控政策放松以及新冠特效药上市,叠加暑期和双节两大旅游高峰期,疫情期间积压的消费需求有望逐步释放,行业景气度预计将迎来提升,加速释放业绩弹性。
1. 社服板块受疫情扰动,下半年聚焦疫后复苏............................................................................................................. 4
1.1. 危中求变,底部崛起可期................................................................................................................................. 4
1.2. 子板块受损不一,逆境中显韧性 ..................................................................................................................... 5
2. 免税:疫情扰动下彰显韧性,静待疫后复苏............................................................................................................. 6
3. 酒店:板块修复启动,结构升级趋势不变................................................................................................................. 8
3.1. 板块总览:H1 业绩明显承压,Q2 已现修复迹象 ........................................................................................ 8
3.2. 重点个股:龙头拓店进程放缓,经营韧性强 ................................................................................................. 9
3.2.1. 龙头均实现Q2 环比改善,恢复能力强.............................................................................................. 9
3.2.2. 拓店速度放缓,结构升级趋势不变 ................................................................................................... 11
3.2.3. 龙头经营韧性强,已进入修复通道 ................................................................................................... 12
4. 餐饮:强修复性特征显著,展店速度放缓............................................................................................................... 14
4.1. 板块总览:环比实现修复,业绩恢复弹性大 ............................................................................................... 14
4.2. 重点个股:头部餐企开店放缓,降本成效显著 ........................................................................................... 16
4.2.1. 需求端受损,毛利率坚挺 ................................................................................................................... 16
4.2.2. 开店节奏放缓,优化门店结构 ........................................................................................................... 18
4.2.3. 同店业绩承压,消费提质升级趋势不变 ........................................................................................... 19
5. 旅游:需求端受损,疫后复苏可期........................................................................................................................... 21
5.1. 板块总览:二季度环比改善,静待需求回暖 ............................................................................................... 21
5.2. 重点个股:危中寻机,旅游业调整布局 ....................................................................................................... 22
6. 风险提示 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 25