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休闲服务商贸零售行业:至暗时刻已过,精选增长确定性较高的行业龙头-月度报告
2021 年9 月,休闲服务指数跑赢沪深300 指数6.06pct,商业贸易指数跑输沪深300 指数3.11pct。截至9 月末,休闲服务行业中值法估值39.25 倍,位于2011 年以来的历史41.41%分位,商业贸易行业中值法估值为26.01 倍,位于2011 年以来的历史39.06%分位。
1 社服零售新消费行业本月观点 .................................................................................. 3
1.1 医美:关注光电类医美细分赛道发展,Q4 医美有望迎接消费热潮 ...................................... 3
1.2 化妆品:行业整体淡季承压,国产头部品牌表现突出.............................................................. 4
1.3 免税:国庆期间海南免税表现超预期,大幅提振Q4 离岛免税销售预期 ............................ 5
1.4 餐饮:夜间经济规模渐起,看好连锁酒馆行业发展新契机..................................................... 6
1.5 酒店/旅游:国庆期间旅游市场表现平稳,环球影城开业带动作用明显 ............................ 8
2 市场涨跌回顾 ........................................................................................................... 9
2.1 整体情况 .................................................................................................................................................. 9
2.2 子行业情况............................................................................................................................................ 10
2.3 个股情况 ................................................................................................................................................ 10
2.4 行业估值 ................................................................................................................................................ 11
3 行业信息跟踪 ..........................................................................................................11
3.1 医美 ......................................................................................................................................................... 11
3.2 化妆品..................................................................................................................................................... 12
3.3 免税 ......................................................................................................................................................... 12
3.4 餐饮 ......................................................................................................................................................... 12
3.5 酒店/旅游 .............................................................................................................................................. 12
4 重点公司动态 ......................................................................................................... 12
5 风险提示 ................................................................................................................ 12