我们认为，随着技术进步和成本下降，未来五年内中国太阳能和风能项目在没有补贴的情况下将比燃煤发电更具吸引力。随着能源均化成本(LCOE)下降，我们预计下游资本支出将愈发以成本为导向，并将给具有成本优势的高效生产商带来增长机遇，这与我们欧洲新能源行业同事在报告“More Green, More Lean II”中提及的加速增长相似。我们预计，拥有研发和执行优势的上游龙头企业将通过整合实现市场份额增长，而经营效率出色且资产负债状况良好的下游龙头企业将受益于上游的成本下降。我们的首选买入股票是隆基股份、正泰电器和华能新能源。信义光能是我们唯一一只评级为卖出的股票，因为我们认为该股的估值溢价缺乏支撑。

PM Summary 4

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS 7

Cost reductions accelerating 8

Operating environment improving 16

Valuation: Attractive risk/reward profile despite short-term policy uncertainties 21

Risks 26

COMPANY ANALYSIS 27

Longi Green (601012.SS): Driving global mono penetration; initiate at Buy 28

Zhejiang Chint (601877.SS): Driving full-cycle solar solution; initiate at Buy 40

Tongwei (600438.SS): Emerging poly giant; initiate at Buy 52

Goldwind (2208.HK/002202.SZ): Leading turbine maker; initiate H-share at Buy 62

Huaneng Renewable (0958.HK): Continued improvement in utilization to drive EBIT margin; initiate at Buy72

Xinyi Solar (0968.HK): Leading PV glassmaker, but valuation premium unjustified; initiate at Sell 78

Longyuan Power (0916.HK): Offshore projects to support installations; initiate at Neutral on limited upside 86

Sungrow Power (300274.SZ): Growing global shares but valuation fair; initiate at Neutral 92

APPENDICES 101

Appendix 1: Stability of supply from upstream key component 102

Appendix 2: Sector background: high growth fueled by high subsidy 103

Appendix 3: M&A Framework 106

信息披露附录108