垃e_圾Su焚mm烧a发ry]电 是城市生活垃圾处置的主要方式。垃圾焚烧发电的市场规模快速增长，垃圾分类有助于末端处置。

1 无废城市..........................................................................................................................................................................4

1.1 城市生活垃圾处置................................................................................................................................................4

1.2 垃圾分类的积极影响............................................................................................................................................5

1.3 垃圾焚烧发电是主要趋势....................................................................................................................................5

1.4 垃圾焚烧发电规模快速增长................................................................................................................................6

2 垃圾焚烧发电商业模型清晰...........................................................................................................................................7

2.1 技术路径成熟........................................................................................................................................................7

2.2 盈利模型清晰........................................................................................................................................................9

2.3.1 收入端.........................................................................................................................................................9

2.3.2 成本端.........................................................................................................................................................9

3 垃圾焚烧发电营收要素分析......................................................................................................................................... 11

3.1 电费收入.............................................................................................................................................................. 11

3.1.1 吨垃圾发电量........................................................................................................................................... 11

3.1.2 燃煤火电基准电价...................................................................................................................................12

3.1.3 垃圾焚烧发电的电价补贴.......................................................................................................................12

3.1.4 基于最新政策的售电收入测算...............................................................................................................13

3.2 垃圾处理费收入..................................................................................................................................................14

3.2.1 垃圾焚烧处理量.......................................................................................................................................14

3.2.2 垃圾处理服务费和计量收费制度...........................................................................................................15

4 垃圾焚烧发电成本要素分析.........................................................................................................................................16

4.1 刚性成本..............................................................................................................................................................17

4.2 变动成本..............................................................................................................................................................18

5 垃圾焚烧发电与CCER .................................................................................................................................................19

5.1 碳排放权交易......................................................................................................................................................19

5.2 垃圾焚烧发电参与CCER ..................................................................................................................................20

5.3 项目间的减排量核证差异显著..........................................................................................................................20

5.3.1 垃圾焚烧发电可实现温室气体（GHG）减排......................................................................................20

5.3.2 减排量通过方法学测算...........................................................................................................................21

5.3.3 焚烧项目所在的气候区显著影响减排量...............................................................................................22

5.4 CCER 对垃圾焚烧发电盈利的贡献...................................................................................................................25

6 投资建议........................................................................................................................................................................27

7 重点公司........................................................................................................................................................................27

8 风险因素........................................................................................................................................................................28