我们结合渠道调研+动销增长+库存，总结了收入预测的“三要素法”。在此跟踪框架下，预计二季度海天中炬高新均有望实现双位数增速，当前高估值均可支撑。

写在前面 ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 4

1. 收入篇 .................................................................................................................................................................................... 6

2. 毛利率篇 .............................................................................................................................................................................. 12

3. 销售费用率篇 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 24

4. 管理费用率篇 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 28

5. 净利率篇 .............................................................................................................................................................................. 31

5.1. 财务费用 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 31

5.2. 其他收支 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 32

5.3. 净利率分拆对比 .............................................................................................................................................................. 34

6. 业绩展望 .............................................................................................................................................................................. 36

7. 风险提示 .............................................................................................................................................................................. 40