行情回顾：2020 年1 月至今汽车板块上涨31.7%，SW 乘用车板块涨幅较大，同期沪深300 指数上涨16.6%。细分板块来看，乘用车板块涨幅最大，上涨55.17%，商用载货车、零部件、客车、汽车服务分别上涨38.61% 、22.32% 、11.98% 和3.23%。个股来看，新能源和重卡产业链领涨行业。

一、行情回顾 ..................................................................................................................................................... 4

（一）涨跌幅分析：涨幅位于前位，乘用车涨幅最大 ................................................................................. 4

（二）估值回顾：细分板块估值稳步上升 ................................................................................................... 5

二、行业周期反转向上，拐点已现..................................................................................................................... 6

（一）需求恢复，产销持续回暖 ................................................................................................................. 6

（二）内循环逐步改善，行业利润增幅高于营收 ...................................................................................... 11

三、推荐标的 ................................................................................................................................................... 13

（一）长城汽车 ........................................................................................................................................ 13

（二）三花智控 ........................................................................................................................................ 14

（三）中国重汽 ........................................................................................................................................ 15

（四）宁德时代 ........................................................................................................................................ 16

（五）星宇股份 ........................................................................................................................................ 17

（六）比亚迪（关注） ............................................................................................................................. 18

（七）德赛西威（关注） .......................................................................................................................... 19

四、风险提示 ................................................................................................................................................... 20