引言：今年以来，各细分板块龙头市值迭创新高，消费品龙头估值已近极致，如何理解以海天为代表的消费龙头的高估值？又如何看待茅台、伊利等细分龙头所面临的市场议论点？站在当下，消费品的投资机会寓于何处？我们希望从企业经营的角度出发，以三种“底线思维”来解答。

引言 ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 3

一、理解三种 “底线思维” ................................................................................................................................................... 3

（一）海天估值的“底线思维” ..................................................................................................................................... 3

（二）茅台定价的“底线思维” ..................................................................................................................................... 3

（三）伊利经营的“底线思维” ..................................................................................................................................... 4

二、对当下市场争议点的解释 ................................................................................................................................................. 4

（一）何为双汇股价涨跌的核心逻辑？ ......................................................................................................................... 4

（二）小家电是否能够持续增长？ ................................................................................................................................. 4

（三）中餐连锁的生命周期有多长？ ............................................................................................................................. 4

三、当下消费品的投资机会 ..................................................................................................................................................... 5

（一）老品牌的势能释放 ................................................................................................................................................. 5

（二）新品类的卖点突破 ................................................................................................................................................. 5

（三）巨大存量的结构重塑 ............................................................................................................................................. 5

四、风险提示 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 6