2 月CPI 同比+1%，猪肉价格环比下行 2 月我国CPI 同比+1%，其 中食品价格同比+2.6%，食品中猪肉同比+3.9%；CPI 环比-0.5%，其中 食品项环比-2%。期间猪肉价格处于下跌区间，影响CPI 猪肉环比 -11.4%。2 月我国农产品进口金额182.14 亿美元，同比+27.6%，出口 金额67.67 亿美元，同比+29.9%，贸易逆差114.48 亿美元，同比+26.3%。

一、物价指标相对稳定，农林牧渔行情波动 ...................................................................................................................... 2

（一）2 月CPI 同比+1%，猪肉价格环比下行 ..................................................................................................................... 2

（二）畜禽价格变化带动市场关注度提升 ............................................................................................................................ 3

二、关注养殖产业链，周期变化酝酿中 .............................................................................................................................. 5

（一）白鸡供给收缩中，鸡苗价格高位，利润可观 ............................................................................................................ 5

1. 1- 2 月我国祖代累计更新16 万套，同比略增 ............................................................................................................... 5

2. 后备祖代存栏相对低位，供给收缩进行中 ................................................................................................................... 6

（二）猪价持续低位震荡，能繁母猪环比下行 .................................................................................................................... 8

1. 3 月生猪价格低位震荡，出栏均重略有回升 .............................................................................................................. 8

2. 养殖规模化、集中度提升改变行业格局 ..................................................................................................................... 10

（三）黄鸡产能端低位徘徊，价格具备上行潜力 .............................................................................................................. 11

1. 3 月黄鸡价格略有回升，单位亏损收窄 ....................................................................................................................... 11

2. 在产父母代存栏低位，黄鸡价格走势可期 ................................................................................................................. 12

3. 区域特征明显，集中度逐步提升中 ............................................................................................................................. 13

（四）关注疫苗后周期行情，非瘟疫苗铸就未来Α弹性 ................................................................................................... 14

1. 批签发量边际好转，新品预期提升市场关注度 ......................................................................................................... 14

2. 疫苗迎接市场化大时代，竞争将加剧 ......................................................................................................................... 16

三、农林牧渔在资本市场中的发展情况 ............................................................................................................................ 17

（一）农林牧渔市值占比下行，养殖业占比领先 .............................................................................................................. 17

（二）本月农业板块表现弱于沪深300 ............................................................................................................................... 18

四、投资建议及股票池 ...................................................................................................................................................... 20

五、风险提示 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 20