乘用车市场Q4 将大概率持续回暖。受新冠疫情影响，今年汽车零售下滑较大，据乘联会数据显示，2020 年1-8 月我国共销售乘用车1,101.5 万辆，同比-15.2%。传统汽车消费旺季“金九银十”今年将得到延续，北京车展9 月下旬开幕将进一步带动消费，受目前疫情影响，十一国内自驾游热度预期强于往年，将对Q4 购车需求形成有力支撑。

一、 乘用车向头部靠拢 ...............................................................................................................................2

（一）乘用车市场Q2 回暖，细分市场走势分化 ............................................................................................2

1、乘用车市场整体回暖 .............................................................................................................................. 2

2、上半年年市场分化明显 .......................................................................................................................... 2

（二）乘用车市场向头部公司聚集 .................................................................................................................4

1、头部集中度持续提升 .............................................................................................................................. 4

2、自主强势品牌竞争力赶超合资 ............................................................................................................... 5

3、增量市场-皮卡未来空间可期 .................................................................................................................. 5

（三）重点公司 .............................................................................................................................................6

1、长安汽车（000625.SZ） ....................................................................................................................... 6

2、长城汽车（601633.SH/2333.HK） ....................................................................................................... 7

二、 零部件行业变革机会 ............................................................................................................................8

（一）行业二季度业绩回暖 ...........................................................................................................................8

（二）行业智能化加速 ..................................................................................................................................8

1、消费趋势及政策推动 .............................................................................................................................. 8

2、智能驾驶普及 ......................................................................................................................................... 9

（三）重点公司（不分先后） ...................................................................................................................... 10

1、科博达（603786.SH） ........................................................................................................................ 11

2、均胜电子（600699.SH） ..................................................................................................................... 11

3、华域汽车（600741.SH） ..................................................................................................................... 12

三、风险提示 .............................................................................................................................................. 13