7 月CPI 同比+2.7%，猪肉价格大幅上涨 7 月我国CPI 同比+2.7%， 其中食品价格同比+6.3%，食品中猪肉同比+20.2%。从环比来看，7 月 CPI 环比+0.5%，其中食品项环比+3.0%。期间猪肉价格处于上升区间， 影响CPI 猪肉环比+25.6%。7 月我国农产品进口金额为209.36 亿美元， 同比+8.71%，出口金额为86.10 亿美元，同比+28.98%，贸易逆差123.3 亿美元，同比-2.04%。

一、物价指标上行，农林牧渔业景气度回升 ...................................................................................................................... 2

（一）7 月CPI 同比+2.7%，猪肉价格大幅上涨 .................................................................................................................. 2

（二）猪价持续上涨带动市场关注度提升 ............................................................................................................................ 3

二、猪鸡行情预期上行过程中，景气度逐步恢复............................................................................................................... 5

（一）把握猪价上行对猪股的催化作用 ................................................................................................................................ 5

1. 8 月猪价震荡上行，猪股布局正当时 .......................................................................................................................... 5

2. 养殖规模化、集中度提升改变行业格局 ....................................................................................................................... 7

（二）黄羽鸡产能出清迎来价格上行周期 ............................................................................................................................ 8

1. 黄鸡价格震荡上行，单位盈利显著提升 ....................................................................................................................... 8

2. 多因素分析黄鸡产能去化情况，支撑价格高位 ........................................................................................................... 8

3. 区域特征明显，集中度逐步提升中 ............................................................................................................................. 10

（三）关注疫苗后周期行情，非瘟疫苗铸就未来Α弹性 ................................................................................................... 11

1. 疫苗批签发量好转，后周期行情蓄势中 ..................................................................................................................... 11

2. 疫苗迎接市场化大时代，竞争将加剧 ......................................................................................................................... 13

三、农林牧渔在资本市场中的发展情况 ............................................................................................................................ 14

（一）农林牧渔市值占比上行，养殖业占比居前 .............................................................................................................. 14

（二）本月农业板块表现强于沪深300，动物保健涨幅领先 ........................................................................................... 15

四、投资建议及股票池 ...................................................................................................................................................... 17

五、风险提示 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 17