宏观层面：流动性相对宽松，白酒景气度高：龙头积极应对疫情，头部集中趋势不改；疫情背景下流动性保持相对宽裕态势，风险偏好较低情况下资金偏向避险资产。

1. 白酒：十四五新起点，疫情低基数后期待“开门红” .................................................................. 5

1.1. 流动性相对宽松，白酒景气度高 ........................................................................................ 5

1.2. 中长期视角：行业向好趋势不改，关注五大趋势 ............................................................ 8

1.2.1. 产业趋势一：把握高端酒确定性，首推茅台次推五粮液 .................................... 10

1.2.2. 产业趋势二：酱香风起，关注郎酒国台 ................................................................. 11

1.2.3. 产业趋势三：洋河汾酒或将站上新一轮次高端风口 ............................................ 12

1.2.4. 产业趋势四：产品力时代，玻汾/牛栏山/尖庄逐鹿高线光瓶酒 .......................... 13

1.2.5. 产业趋势五：地产酒强者恒强 ................................................................................ 14

1.3. 短期视角：低基数背景下业绩有望实现高弹性增长 ...................................................... 15

2. 啤酒：高端化趋势不改，提价助推产品结构升级 .................................................................... 16

3. 食品：压力测试分化加剧，龙头提效强者恒强 ........................................................................ 21

3.1. 调味品：成本上涨龙头提效，加速行业集中度提升 ...................................................... 21

3.2. 乳制品：奶价温和上涨，结构升级推动良性竞争 .......................................................... 24

3.3. 小食品大空间，寻找中国卡乐比与麦当劳 ...................................................................... 26

4. 投资建议 ........................................................................................................................................ 28

5. 风险提示 ........................................................................................................................................ 29