7 月煤炭产量及进口量同比大幅下降，雨季影响下火电需求有所减弱，在库存调节下煤炭整体供需基本平衡，动力煤价格先涨后跌，焦炭三轮提降后稳住，焦煤略有下行。

1. 行业价格及规模指标 ............................................................................................................................................................. 5

1.1. 工业增加值：采矿业6 月同比+1.7%，较5 月上升0.6pct ............................................................................ 5

1.2. 价格：动力煤、焦炭7 月环比均继续上涨 ..................................................................................................................... 6

2. 供给端：7 月国内产量同比-3.7%，进口同比-20.6% ........................................................... 9

2.1. 国内煤炭产量：7 月当月同比-3.7% ................................................................................................................. 9

2.2. 进口煤量：7 月进口煤量当月同比-20.6% ....................................................................................................... 9

3. 需求端：7 月火电发电量-0.7%，固定资产投资+5.6% ........................................................................................... 10

3.1. 电力：7 月火电发电量同比-0.7%，水电同比+6.1% ............................................................................... 11

3.2. 投资：1-7 月地产/基建/制造业投资+3.4%/-1.0%/-10.2% ................................................... 13

3.3. 钢铁：1-7 月生铁/粗钢/钢材产量同比+3.2%/+2.8%/+3.7% .............................................................. 14

3.4. 建材：7 月水泥产量当月同比+0.8%，平板玻璃产量-3.1% ................................................................................. 15

4. 运输及库存：大秦线7 月日均运量同比+4.7% ........................................................................................................ 15

5. 风险提示 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 17