啤酒指数与估值处于低位，业绩有望加速释放。申万啤酒指数自2015H2 以来一直处于低位，2018H1 受行业性提价影响短暂上升，目前又回落至底部位置，PE TTM 从2018 年5 月份超过70 倍的高点跌落至目前40 倍左右的水平。2017 年开始啤酒上市公司收入与业绩均有一定改善，展望2019 年，我们认为吨酒价格上升+包材成本下降+减税三重因素将推动啤酒行业利润加速释放。今年以来重庆啤酒和华润啤酒收益率明显领先于贵州茅台和沪深300，实现较好的相对收益。

10 月，食品行业生产出现回暖态势，其中，食品制造业工业企业增加值同比增长 7.7%；农副食品加工业企业增加值同比增长 4.7%；酒、饮料和精制茶制造业工业企业增加值同比增长6.0%。然而，主要产品产量均较上月有所下滑。

Lactic acid market has been segmented on the basis of raw material, applications, and regions. Lactic acid products are made of corn, sugar, cassava, and other crops including wheat, potato, rice, and sweet sorghum, and are used in several applications including industrial, pharmaceuticals, personal care as well as in the production of polylactic acid. Lactic acid is also manufactured by other lignocellulosic crops & residues including corn cobs, woody materials, and waste paper. The product is further utilized as descaling agents, neutralizers, and cleaning agents in chemical, metal, and agrochemical industries.

Thailand is also one of the largest producers of processed foods in the world. Thailand's food processing sector is made up of mostly small firms and cottage industries, with medium-to-large enterprises accounting for 15% of the sector. Thailand's largest drinks company ThaiBev purchased 252 KFC outlets in the country for approximately USD470mn. Thailand-based conglomerate Charoen Pokphand Foods (CP Foods) plans to increase the proportion of sales it makes from its overseas business in the next five years in a bid to 'tackle global economic uncertainties'. The government has announced a food and agro-industry project to support farmers and businesses, creating a Northern Thailand food valley to help make crop prices more stable and boost rural incomes.

South Korea's food industry is fairly well developed, producing traditional and modern food products. The industry is sophisticated and relies heavily on imports of raw materials, intermediate products, ingredients and additives. Other than rice and certain dairy products, in which it is self-sufficient, South Korea imports almost all types of agricultural products for processing. South Korean agriculture has long been plagued by the country's climatic and topographic unsuitability and accordant scarcity of agricultural land. In the past, government policy has also been viewed as impeding output growth, with tightly controlled limits in place on the ownership of agricultural land and tight restrictions on trade. However, faced with a growing food import bill, the government appears to be changing its stance.

嘉士伯2016年在中国关闭17家工厂，16年底仅剩15家酒厂分布于重庆、四川、湖南（重庆8家、四川4家、湖南3家），关厂减产工作基本完成；华润啤酒也在15年关停3家，16年关停2家，17年预计关停3家，18年预计要将四川的5家工厂（成都、遂宁、达州、内江、西昌）合并。

我们判断经济对消费的滞后影响已经显现，食品饮料的必需消费品特征鲜明。如果不出现经济失速下滑及房价大幅下跌，我们预计2019年食品饮料行业收入有望超过10%。

18 年食饮股价表现全行业第六，股价下行主因估值回落。往19 年看，经济下行压力较大，需求放缓、成本略有压力。行业层面，景气回落，洗牌在即，各细分赛道绝对龙头有望借机扩大优势、收割份额。建议关注三选股思路：1、优选绝对龙头过冬，伊利、双汇、茅台、洋河；2、关注“小而美”细分赛道龙头，绝味、克明、元祖、安琪；3、观察等待反转改善型机会，三全、大北农。

“消费品品牌化”必然沿着“消费频次”由低到高逐步渗透，以“三维模型”为方法论辩证角度看品牌化发展轨迹。在2018 年策略报告中提出“高端商品大众化和大众商品高端化为当前终极表象的消费趋势”，延伸探索后，我们认为消费品品牌化难易程度与消费频次高度相关，品牌化进程已深入高频消费，中心化与去中心化螺旋式动态发展。

周期性调整而非断崖式下滑，行业量价齐升逻辑受到挑战，高基数+需求边际放缓+库存消化，业绩预期与估值仍需下修；以史为鉴，预计顺势而为和提升自身竞争优势的公司表现将相对较好；抱团取暖后遗症，仍需等待微观结构改善。

2018 年名义 GDP 增长和居民收入增长放缓，需求增长有放缓迹象。消费品制造业指数落后于恒生指数，主要原因为悲观预期导致的估值收缩。2019 年上半年宏观经济可能经历第二轮放缓，需求压力犹存。预计2019 年下半年宏观经济对行业需求的冲击将逐步减弱。预计 2019 年原材料成本压力缓解，人工成本受社保新政影响将会上升。 

我们认为，食品饮料具备一定必选属性，抗经济波动能力较强。同时，随我国经济增速换挡，品牌化、高端化、个性化仍是趋势，食品饮料行业潜力依旧较大。行业短期调整后，估值逐步合理，未来蓄势而发。

受经济不确定性影响， 2018年食品饮料行业下跌20.47%，小幅跑赢大盘0.73pct，其中调味品板块一枝独秀（+8.63%）。

食品饮料前高后低，总体表现与指数持平。维持行业“推荐”评级。白酒短期处于周期下行阶段，重点看好高端贵州茅台和低端顺鑫农业。

白酒行业趋势向上，增速回归稳健，关注中长期价值。大众食品行稳致远，静待穿暖花开。

食品龙头净利润增速滞后于GDP 和PPI 增速，且抗周期能力强，白酒龙头净利润增速基本同步于GDP 和PPI 增速（PPI 增速衡量工业企业产品出厂变动程度，PPI 增速下行意味着企业景气度下降）。从股价表现来看，经济衰退期食品龙头股价表现明显优于白酒龙头和大盘。

我们认为白酒行业的升级、扩张和整合三大浪潮有望在2019年延续，进而推动龙头企业以优势价位为中心，走向龙头争霸格局，建议战略性布局五家公司，分别为贵州茅台、五粮液、顺鑫农业、洋河股份、泸州老窖，同时我们预判中档价位古井贡酒、口子窖、今世缘、水井坊等具备成为细分市场龙头的条件。