Following a two-year period of growth driven by the general economic expansion and the availability of EU funding, the construction market in Romania experienced a slight shrinkage in 2016, due to a combination of lower construction work volumes in some subsectors, lower investments and political tensions. The construction sector’s output in 2016 (defined in terms of total construction works performed under contract) was RON 67.6bn, down 11.4% y/y in nominal terms. The sector’s gross valueadded (GVA) formed 7.7% of the real GDP. The sector also employed 365,298 people. Construction was driven mainly by rapid developments in the real estate market that stimulated the growth of residential buildings’ construction. Rising income levels and an increase in employment are driving the demand for residential property, particularly among middle-income Romanians. The boom in services in Romania – particularly in the information and communications technology (ICT), business process outsourcing (BPO) and retail sectors – is boosting the demand for office space

Construction was one of the sectors most affected by the deep economic recession in Brazil. The construction activity has been declining since 2014, due to the ailing economy, high inflation, restricted credit supply, low government spending and several corruption investigations involving major construction companies. This has led to postponed projects and mounting financial, liquidity and reputational problems for incumbent players, including bans on participating in public contracts, thus unleashing a profound restructuring process. Yet, with the uptick in the economic activity since 2017, the first signs of recovery in the residential property market, coupled with the active government measures to improve transparency in public biddings and make infrastructure concessions more attractive for private investors, the sector is expected to return to growth in 2018.

年初至今（6 月中旬），建筑行业整体表现低迷，鲜有较为明确的投资机会。自上而下来看，在降低宏观负债率的背景下，基建投资增速快速下滑，但在稳增长的信号指引下，下半年基建投资有望筑底回升；化学工程板块景气度持续提升，随着油价上涨，大型煤化工项目经济性明显提升，新一轮投资周期已经到来；此外，跳出 PPP 来看大生态，环保建设依旧是长期趋势，静待资金面改善修正预期，装饰方面，长租公寓加速全装修应用，家装进展顺利放量可期。个股方面，推荐中国化学、葛洲坝、岭南股份以及东珠景观等。

受中美贸易争端及金融去杠杆等影响，6 月大盘指数延续跌势，其中沪深300 下跌7.66%，上证综指下跌8.01%。建筑板块方面，受基建投资增速下滑影响，6 月建筑装饰指数下跌8.75pct，分别跑输沪深300 和上证综指1.09 和0.74 个百分点。子版块方面，铁路建设跌幅最小(-2.11%)，城轨建设跌幅最大(-14.50%)。截止6 月底，建筑板块PE（TTM，整体法）约11.08 倍，PB（LF）约1.21 倍，均接近历史底部水平。

2018 年上半年建筑行业下跌23%，跑输大盘8.79pct，子行业全面下跌，跌幅较大的是城轨建设和园林工程，跌幅较小的是化学工程、。行业中上涨的个股有6只，比例仅为4%，低于全体A 股16%的比例。行业估值水平重回历史低位，当前PE 约为11.5 倍，仅略高于2014 年历史最低点，PB 估值1.27 倍，已经处于历史最低点。去年建筑行业上市公司实现营收和净利润分别同比增长12%和23%，今年Q1 分别同比增长15%和18%，行业净资产收益率、毛利率和净利率均有所提升，资产负债率逐年下降。行业新签订单近三年CAGR 约为12%，持续保持两位数增速。行业基本面稳健，订单充沛。

结构深度调整期。下游投资增速处于长期下降通道，我们判断制造业投资中游分化、房地产投资阶段性回升、基建投资“朝三暮四”，预计2018 合计投资增速与上年度相同、低位企稳于6.6%。

本周中美贸易战造成 A 股市场大幅度回撤，汇率市场美元表现强势，人民币兑美元汇率快速下跌 796 点至 6.4964，周日，央行宣布定向降准0.5%，但实质与普降相似，总体流动性释放 7000 亿元人民币。

我们通过盈利与估值拆分认为建筑行情主要由估值驱动，Q2 表现最差，大多时候表现为“牛短熊长”、波动大，经济周期和货币信用周期是影响建筑估值波动的两大因素。我们构建了“经济-信用”双周期建筑复盘模型，认为参照历史情况紧信用周期持续约一年，18Q4 有望迎来转机。建筑指数存在显著的26 月、49 月、93 月等三个运行周期，与行业周期相对应。我们预计基建/房建/工建板块或分别在今年8 月/11 月/19 年1 月触底回升。

本周央行货币政策委员会2018 年二季度例会央行对流动性表述从“合理稳定”转为“合理充裕”，引发货币政策进一步宽松预期，促进市场情绪好转。继扩大内需、定向降准、MLF 质押品扩容等政策之后，流动性表述的改变再次印证了经济稳增长信号持续，资金面有望边际改善。

供给侧改革在水泥行业的影响继续深化，以错峰停窑为核心，产能置换、淘汰低标号水泥、加速整合并购等多元化手段并行，行业供给端新增产能明显减少；行业整体需求弱化已成定局，不过不同区域下游行情有所不同，下半年决定价格涨幅的关键因素仍是区域内需求情况。我们认为，行业供需向好将进一步推升行业集中度，落后企业会在供给侧改革进程中逐步淘汰，大企业成本管控优势进而将显现，未来水泥企业将继续呈现强者恒强的态势，重点关注区域龙头企业，推荐海螺水泥、华新水泥。

资金面趋紧，对建筑建材行业影响较大，市场情绪下行，我们下调建筑建材行业评级由强于大市至中性。人口流动与资金面对建筑建材行业影响更大，建议按照人口流动、行业龙头、现金流边际改善、终端服务等主线选股。