一周板块回顾:本周大盘企稳震荡，上涨 0.54%，食品饮料板块略涨 0.02%基本持平，跑输 0.5 个百分点。在申万 28 个子行业中排名第 24。分子行业看，酒类板块涨幅居前，啤酒（1.91%）、白酒（1.06%）、红酒（0.31%）；跌幅居前的是肉制品（-2.7%）、乳制品（-1.69%）、调味品（-1.36%）。分市值规模看，大盘企稳，中小市值公司出现一定幅度反弹，300 亿以上市值公司跌-4.3%，50-100 亿市值公司涨 2.5%，50 亿以下公司涨 4.3%。

在确定投资安全边际同时，寻求高收益精选个股。

机构板块仓位从2012年的10%以上降至2014年2.5%，目前仓位继续下降。

液态奶是指经80多摄氏度杀菌的巴氏奶和140摄氏度UHT超高温杀菌的无菌包装牛奶，前者常用玻璃瓶、塑料袋、屋顶型纸盒以及塑料瓶装，需冷藏保存、冷链运输，保质期从 48 小时至几十天不等，其被称为“保鲜奶”；而后者称“常温奶”，常用复合塑料袋、塑料瓶、利乐包装等，保质期在常温下可达几个月甚至一年等。另外液态奶按风味不同又可分为纯鲜、果味、果粒、可可味、甜牛奶、蔬菜汁等，从功能方面又可分为营养强化奶、免疫奶等。它具有营养成分保持好、饮用方便、加工费用低、能耗少等优点。目前市场上的液态奶主要分为巴氏杀菌奶、屋型保鲜奶、UHT 奶、酸奶和其他，其中巴氏杀菌奶是液态奶中销量最大的产品种类，约占 50%左右，屋型保鲜奶次之，约占 30%，酸奶居于末位。由于超高温灭菌奶货架期长、包装多样化，保存、携带方便，消费呈上升趋势。报告对液态奶的行业发展前景进行了详细探讨。

持续推荐进口牛肉行业，我们认为海外原料端壁垒不高，如果仅从海外进 口回国内以大宗方式批发销售，利润率非常低。

截至到12月15日整体涨幅21.50%，位居申万行业28个一级分类倒数第六位。基金持仓三季度虽上升至3.87%，远低于历叱峰值的8.8%。从估值角度看，食品饮料丌论相对估值还是绝对估值目前都处于较低水平，绝对估值28.19倍处于申万行业一级分类中下水平，相对A股整体估值溢价为1.79倍，而历史均值为2.08，估值洼地效应显著。而拉长来看，板块从2012年中的鼎盛时期已经沉寂了3年之久。

一年之计在于春，春节旺季基本面旺销趋势确定，市场风格转换催生板块性机会。

历经两年深度调整后， 2015 年国内葡萄酒市场显现基本面底部，1-10 月国产酒与瓶装进口酒产量同比增 4%、 38%，其中瓶装进口占比达 26%，较年初增加 5pct。 因短期内国内消费者对葡萄酒进口偏好需求不减，叠加中国陆续对智利、澳大利亚实行零关税政策，我们预计进口酒占比提升将是必然趋势；但目前消费者对葡萄酒品鉴水平较低、尚未对进口品牌建立足够认知，进口酒市场品牌繁多、格局远未稳定。

1月进入消费旺季；食品板块抬头，食品重点关注白酒板块。

紧密关注年度业绩预期差较大的标的。截至本周末，共有 12 家食品饮料公司发布了 2015 年的业绩预告/修正预告。总体来看，四家白酒企业的 15 年净利润全部预增，白酒行业见底复苏态势再次得到确认；而非酒企业冷暖自知，百润股份神话不再、黑（黑芝麻）白（贝因美）双煞灵光初现，业绩增长可持续性待进一步观察，安琪酵母后期的增长点明朗，持续增长可期（参照我们相关的报告）。

日本食品饮料消费结构变迁：从生鲜农贸向加工食品、餐饮转变。从日本1963-1985 年消费结构看，食品饮料占比逐年下降，而交通通信、文化娱乐等占比增长较快，表明随着经济发展，人们对精神层面的需求将逐步取代生理层面的需求。日本食品饮料 70 年代初期出现过 2 位数的高速增长，之后到 90 年增长放缓基本维持个位数增长，90 年代后日本经济放缓食品饮料基本维持在负增长。日本食品饮料发展 3 大社会驱动因素为：女性进入社会、单身家庭增多、城镇化率提升，这些导致日本加工食品的兴起、餐饮的繁荣、冷冻食品规模显著增加。

According to the SWR 2009, the whisky produced in Scotland should be called Scotch whisky. In addition, it should meet the following guidelines: It should be produced at a distillery in Scotland using water and malted barley (whole grains of other cereals can be added to the whisky).Whisky should be processed at that distillery into a mash and converted to a fermentable substrate only by endogenous enzyme systems at that respective distillery. The whisky should be fermented only by adding yeast and should have an alcoholic strength by volume of less than 94.8% (190 US proof).

The vodka market in Europe accounted for 74.87% of the global vodka market. Though Europe is the largest market for vodka, its market share will decline during the forecast period because of the saturated nature of the market. Stringent government regulations like high taxes and a rising demand for substitute products like nonalcoholic beverages are limiting the growth of the market.

The global soft drinks market comprises the following segments: carbonated soft drinks (CSD), bottled water, juices and concentrates, ready-to-drink (RTD) tea and coffee, and functional drinks. Soft drinks are sometimes referred to as liquid refreshment beverages. The global soft drinks market will be dominated by carbonated soft drinks in terms of both revenue and volume during the forecast period. The consumption of carbonated soft drinks is decreasing because of the increase in health awareness and the increasing number of obese-related cases among consumers. Consumers are now showing more preference toward other soft drinks segments like bottled water and RTD tea and coffee. The preference for low-calorie soft drinks and soft drinks containing natural ingredients is on the rise. The product cycle used to produce most of the soft drinks is as follows:

Sports and energy drinks are drinks that offer a range of functional benefits to consumers. Sports and energy drinks are two entirely different types of drink consumed for different purposes. Sports drinks are rich in carbohydrates and electrolytes such as chlorides, calcium，magnesium, sodium, and potassium and are consumed to replace the fluids and electrolytes lost from the body during sports and fitness activities. There are three main types of sports drinks.                                

The global RTD tea and coffee market is a subgroup of the global soft drinks market. RTD coffee and tea have benefits including antioxidants and lower calorie content than soft drinks. APAC is the largest market with a share of 64.9% followed by the Americas with a market share of 22.9%. The market has a large consumer base across different geographies.

Europe is a major producer of wine, and it accounts for 58% of the wine production worldwide. In 2014, Europe produced around 18.20 hl of wine and exported wine across the globe to countries like Australia, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, the US, China, and New Zealand.

Dairy-alternative drinks comprise plant-based milk obtained from cereals, nuts, and seeds. Dairy-alternative drinks are primarily consumed by vegans, people who have lactose or dairy intolerance, and people with milk allergies. Dairy-alternative drinks have low fat and low cholesterol levels. Demand for dairy-alternative beverages is increasing with the growing awareness of the medical benefits of such products, rising health consciousness, and an increasing vegan population.