10 月份，化工行业运行依旧缓慢，工业增加值增速与上月持平；行业营收和利润继续增长，同比增速均有所放缓，且放缓幅度趋大。

Polyvinyl butyral (PVB) market has been segmented on the basis of application and region. Key raw materials utilized for manufacturing polyvinyl butyral include vinyl acetate monomers (VAM), polyvinyl alcohol, and butyraldehyde. PVB resins are utilized in applications requiring flexibility, strong binding, optical clarity, toughness and adhesion to differentiated surfaces. Key applications of PVB includes films & sheets, paints & coatings, adhesives and others. Key end-uses of PVB films & sheets include automotive, photovoltaic, and construction. Other major applications of PVB are printing inks, packaging, lacquers, varnishes and binders.

Russian petrochemicals output grew at a faster rate than industrial growth in 2017. Russian chemicals output grew 4.3% in 2017, largely due to growth in fertilizer, according to Rosstat data. Ethylene output rose 2.5% to 2.86mn tonnes, benzene grew 4.2% to 1.36mn tonnes, caustic soda was up 6.1% to 1.24mn tonnes and mineral fertilizer production grew 8.2% to 22.52mn tonnes. In contrast, industrial growth was just 1.8%. Higher oil prices are spurring the domestic economy following several years of stagnation, but this trend has also hiked naphtha prices and raised the cost of production at a time when markets have been limited by US and EU sanctions.

Glycol ethers are liquids that combine the solubility characteristics of ethers and alcohols since both functional groups are present in the molecule. They are therefore widely used in solvent applications, including formulations such as paints, inks and cleaning fluids. Non-solvent applications include uses as anti-icing agents in jet fuel, hydraulic system fluids and as chemical intermediaries.

The market study for silicone is segmented on the basis of product, application and region. In terms of product, the silicone industry is segmented into four levels including fluids, gels, resin, elastomers and other products. Furthermore, we have drilled down the silicone fluids product segment into modified and straight ones. The market study for silicone elastomers is further segmented into high temperature vulcanized (HTV), Room temperature vulcanized (RTV) and liquid silicone rubber (LSR). We have covered the silicone based products including, wax, caulks and emulsions under the other product segments. We have covered the quantitative analysis on silicone market in major applications including, electrical & electronics, transportation, construction, personal care & pharmaceuticals, and textile industries. Furthermore, we have covered the use of silicone in food & beverage, oil & gas, chemicals, and consumer goods sectors only.

The reverse osmosis membrane is a semipermeable separating laminate used in purification of water from contaminants and excess of dissolve salts. Reverse osmosis removes many types of dissolved and suspended species from water, including bacteria, and is used in both industrial processes and the production of potable water. The result is that the solute is retained on the pressurized side of the membrane, and the pure solvent is allowed to pass to the other side. The reverse osmosis system does not require heat for the process to be performed, hence aids in conservation of energy. The report covers various types of materials, filter modules, and applications of the reverse osmosis membrane market. In addition, the report has been analyzed across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA region.

Isoprene market has been segmented on the basis of type, applications, end-use and regions. Isoprene made from polymer grade and chemical grade find their application in polyisoprene, isobutylene-isoprene rubber, styrene-isoprene styrene and specialty chemicals including epoxy hardeners, vitamins, specialty isoprenic elastomers, agrochemicals, flavors and fragrances, and pharmaceuticals. The end-uses for the isoprene market are medical, coatings, tires, sealants, adhesives, footwear, bitumen modification, electronics, wire and cables, polymer modification, industrial products, building and construction and automotive (non-tires).

Growing demand for ethanolamine from end-user industries, such as oil & gas, cosmetics, and others, are the key factors expected to significantly drive the growth of the North America ethanolamine market. Furthermore, promising growth in the surfactants industry of North America is also expected to augment the market growth. However, volatility in prices of raw material associated with ethanolamine will restrain the market growth. The impact of the driving factors is expected to surpass that of the restraints. Hence, the market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.6% from 2018 to 2025. The presence of untapped markets in developing nations is expected to provide new opportunities for the key players.

Petroleum resins market has been segmented on the basis of product, applications, end-use and regions. petroleum resins are made up of naphtha and are of mainly four types, C5 resins, C9 resins, copolymerization of C5/C9 resins and the hydrogenated resins. These resins are used as a tacking agent in various applications including rubber compounding, paints, printing inks, adhesives, tapes and labels. The major end-use industry of the petroleum resins include construction, automotive, consumer goods, and packaging.

The automotive glass market has been segmented on the basis of product, application, enduse, and vehicle type. On the basis of product, the market has been segmented into laminated glass, tempered glass, and others. Other glasses include insulated glass and complex glass compositions used for special automotive. On the basis of application, the market has been segmented as windscreen, backlite, and sidelite. On the basis of end-use, the market has been segmented as OEM and ARG. On the basis of vehicle type, the market has been segmented as passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, and heavy commercial vehicles.

The global packaging adhesives market has been segmented on the basis of technology, application, and region. In terms of technology, the market has been segmented into the divisions of water-based, solvent-based, hot melt, and others. Water-based is anticipated to be the fastest growing segment. Its high growth rate is on account of the increasing demand for dairy & food products dispatched via vending machines and carbonated beverages.

供应超预期增加、需求不及预期，四季度原油价格迎来大幅下跌，布油一度跌破 60 美元大关，OPEC+达成新减产协议，原油价格有望回升至今年上半年水平；煤炭价格维持高位震荡、明年下行压力较大；冬季北美天然气价格短期上行。综合来看，成本端对化工产品价格支撑的逻辑正在不断弱化。

回顾18 年，环保持续高压加速化工行业落后产能持续出清，需求基本稳定，大部分子行业供需格局紧平衡。成本端受益油价中枢上移，成本支撑较强，化工品价格持续上涨带动营收业绩高速增长。三季度单季来看，需求疲弱压力显现，价格上行动力不足，呈现出量价增长双弱的情形。重点跟踪的化工产品中，70%三季度均价同比提高，59%环比进一步提高。

质地优良的成长股，受益于上游基础原材料价格回落以及行业格局的优化，成长性将进一步凸显，重点推荐电子化学品板块，以及自下而上发掘的中旗股份等优质标的。周期股虽然部分产品或存景气度下行风险，但农化、炼化等细分领域依然具有投资机会。此外，磷矿石及萤石等具有稀缺资源属性的子行业，也具备价值重估的长期逻辑，值得持续关注。 

整体结论：化工行业2019年景气预计将震荡下行，主要下游增速放缓，供给端新增产能提速。2018年里，我国经济形势震荡，中国化工产品价格指数自2018年9月一路下滑，结束两年来的上涨，开始进入下行周期。化工行业主要下游需求放缓，尤其是地产行业较为低迷，房屋竣工面积累计同比在2017年11月开始转负，2018年大幅下滑，商品房销售速度放缓；我国汽车月销量当月同比在2018年7月转负，出现下降；空调月销量自2018年7月起下滑，纺织服装零售额低速增长，并未形成明显需求拉动。

需求方面，受能源结构升级和环保需求推动，《天然气发展 “十三五”规划》提出 2020 年天然气消费占一次能源比例从 2016年的 6.3%提升到 8%-10%，据此测算，2020 年之前我国天然气消费量 CAGR 将保持 15%左右。供给方面，国内天然气供给由国产气、进口管道气、进口 LNG 三部分组成，其中国产气、进口管道气供应量相对稳定，加大海外 LNG 进口是补充国内用气缺口的必然选择。

固定资产投资增速转正，内忧外患需求增速放缓。原油供需与博弈间需求平衡点。

根据百川资讯统计，2017年我国共生产草甘膦50.48万吨，2016年为50.51万吨，产量基本持平，以年平均有效产能78万吨计算（（年初有效产能+年末有效产能）/2），行业平均开工率达到64.7%。其中，2017年大厂产量为43万吨，小厂产量为7.5万吨，2016年大厂与小厂产量分别为44.6万吨和5.9万吨，小厂的产量占比由2016年的11.7%提高到2017年的14.9%，也验证了行业景气上行周期中，小厂出货量及开工率均在上行。

近期部分地区的监管部门出台了对停产整顿企业验收复产的相关文件，受环保限产的部分农化产能目前已逐步复产，2018 年1-10 月份化学农药原药产量累计同比增速达到0.5%，较1-9 月份的-13%大幅提升13.5 个百分点。同时，主要原药企业在农药行业迎来景气周期背景下，积极布局，新建产能将陆续投放。因此，我们方正化工认为，未来原药供给将迎来增长期。