本报告研究范畴为具有敏感肌问题，年龄在18-45岁，正在使用抗敏感护肤品或计划使用抗敏感护肤品的女性用户，人群总数为612人。针对性研究其人群特征、护肤认知及行为态度，并针对当前整体护肤环境，探索未来护肤行业对敏感肌这一细分消费人群的发展价值。

The market dynamics section discusses on the various factors which have the potential to alter the dynamics of a market. Market drivers push the market forward allowing the market to grow in due course of time. The factors which act like constraints to the growth and development of the market are called market restraints. They affect the production activities associated with the market, negatively. Apart from the drivers as well as restraint, various opportunities provide a window for the growth of the construction sealants market. These opportunities open gates for the new market entrants to set their foothold ultimately strengthening the market ecosystem. The market is subject to certain challenges, which may arise either on the technical side or owing to numerous regulations imposed by the government bodies. Although these challenges hinder the market growth these can be overcome by certain efforts made in the direction to push the market forward. The present section provides an in-depth understanding of the various drivers, restraints / constraints, opportunities and associated challenges with the global construction sealants market.

The packaging in the cosmetic industry has gone leaps and bounds in recent years. The cosmetic industry has the most varied packaging requirements of all the other sectors. The materials used vary from different metals from glass, paper, and Plastics, and these materials are used to make containers with different shapes and sizes and dispensing mechanism.  Plastic in the form of primary containers, secondary flexible pouches, caps and closure, and the nozzle is one of the major packaging materials used by the cosmetic industry. The plastic tube is one of the major containers in the cosmetic industry as it is able to store liquid-solid and semisolid materials and able dispense products in the controlled proportions. Also, the, when compared to other containers tubes, are able to provide better contamination protection.  In order to cater to the increasing demand for tubes, various suppliers have come up with innovative offerings in the market. Most recently, Sally Hansen, a major cosmetics manufacturer in the global market, developed a squeezable tube paired with an applicator tip with the help of Topline.

2020 年年初至今（截至2020 年6 月24 日，下同），沪深300 指数上涨1.04%，化工行业上涨2.36%，跑赢沪深300 指数1.32 个百分点，在A 股28 个行业中涨跌幅位列第15 名。目前化工行业市盈率为23.10倍，显著低于近5 年均值（30.63 倍），相对沪深300 市盈率（12.38 倍）溢价率为86.59%，行业估值水平不断抬升，整体估值修复阶段有望持续，子板块整体估值水平趋于平稳。化工行业2020 年第一季度营业收入同比下降18.6%，归母净利润同比下降107.14%，排名靠后，行业业绩一方面受疫情拖累，另一方面受原油价格崩盘影响较大。

短期来看，由于部分纱厂无法承担亏损而选择减产，下游需求依旧较为低迷，粘短价格或以低位徘徊为主；而中长期随着新增产能放缓，全球纺服需求逐渐修复，未来粘胶短纤价格拐点有望来临，中枢或将上移。

短期，在原材料成本支撑与需求端环比改善的利好下，氨纶价格进一步向下空间有限。长期而言，氨纶行业竞争格局正加速转向龙头主导，落后产能持续退出，利于供需格局改善，长期价格中枢有望上移。

上半年疫情及油价下跌推动下，化工行业盈利增速加速阶段性见底，行业估值低位有望修复。推荐三条主线：1）受益油价回升的恒力石化、卫星石化；2）估值调整到位后续高弹性的鲁西化工、奥克股份、三友化工、金石资源、宝丰能源、嘉化能源；3）长期有望跑赢同行的优秀龙头公司万华化学、华鲁恒升。

6 月我国官方制造业PMI 50.9%，比上月上升0.3 个百分点。构成制造业PMI 的五大分类指标中，生产指数、新订单指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临界点。

在化工行业环保及安全持续高压下，具有完善环保安全设施的头部企业将持续受益，行业集中度有望进一步提升。新材料供应短缺问题凸显，市场缺口将提供巨大的发展空间和市场潜力，同时加速推进关键材料的进口替代。建议持续关注新材料板块及具有安全环保高壁垒的龙头企业。

原油价格影响因素较多。一般而言，除了其商品属性，还有金融属性等。列述各影响因素没有意义，因为再不同的时间段，主导因素很可能大不同，且扰动因素较多，因此市场普遍认为较难研究。

短期看，随着供方控量与密集检修利好，MDI 价格出现回升。长期而言，MDI 供给格局稳定，新增产能以技改扩产为主，当下MDI 价格已处于近十年底部区间，随着海外需求逐渐修复，未来MDI 价格中枢有望上行。

需求整体下行，下半年不容乐观。2020 年初新冠疫情突袭全球，一季度国内供需双杀，单季度GDP 增速为-6.8%。二季度复工复产后内需复苏，房地产、汽车产销均出现回暖，但复苏的持续性仍然存疑。海外需求则更糟，二季度海外疫情爆发，主要经济体PMI 数据均出现大幅下滑，进而影响国内化工行业出口。随着6 月底美国疫情的二次爆发，海外能否持续复工复产存疑，我们对下半年整体的需求依然偏悲观。

1）整体景气度： 20年6月淘系美妆全网gmv增长49%，其中护肤品gmv增长51%，环比加速；彩妆类目gmv增长40%，今年以来逐月环比加速增长；今年线上高景气不变，1-6月护肤品gmv增长37%，彩妆增长23%，合计增长33%。2）细分品类方面，6月精华/香水继续领跑行业增长，乳液面霜当月表现良好。3）竞争格局方面，6月欧美系头部美妆集团代表品牌增长80%以上，国货线中丸美/玉泽/润百颜增势迅猛，实现三位数增长。

市场一些观点认为，万华化学已经成为MDI行业的龙头，市占率在1/4左右，未来在聚氨酯板块的增长有限。我们认为，万华化学在聚氨酯领域仍有巨大空间，未来仍将保持快速增长。