“双循环”发展格局下，加快发展新材料，对推动技术创新，支撑产业升级，构建“国内大循环”具有重要战略意义。目前，新材料发展水平已经成为衡量制造业实力的重要标尺，推进新材料产业发展，是我国实现制造业转型升级、打通国内要素循环、提升产业链水平的主要方向。智能材料是继天然材料、合成高分子材料、人工设计材料之后的第四代材料。智能材料产业是新材料领域的一个重要分支，也是现代高技术新材料发展的重要方向之一，它将支撑未来高技术的发展，使传统意义上的功能材料和结构材料之间的界线逐渐消失，实现结构功能化、功能多样化。目前我国智能材料产业存在缺少核心专利，产品种类单一，竞争力不足，产学研结合不紧密，成果转化效率低等问题，与当前国际先进水平仍有较大差距。针对当前我国智能材料的不足，急需加强材料方面的基础研究，加快关键技术的突破，推进新材料的应用，从根本上推动我国智能材料产业转型升级和快速发展。

Methodological understanding of the core and adjacent markets as well as the industry changes, for a critical assessment of business dynamics of the materials in scope Analysis of the impact of developments and initiatives made by governments as well as corporate stakeholders that influence the business environment for both market participants as well as customers Examination of competitor’s strategies and their recent developments for effective assessment of market movements at each level of the supply chain Triangulation of the supply-demand gaps with business drivers and challenges to anticipate business opportunities and revenue pockets

Pad printing has been a conventional method of printing on curved and uneven surfaces for a long time. It involves the transfer of 2D images or texts onto a 3D surface with the help of flexible silicone pads. It is a spin-off of conventional offset printing. Recently, digital printing has paved the way for printing on the surfaces with variable diameter using digital cylinder printing technique. This process directly strews ink over a curved surface which is in a close vicinity to the cylindrical printheads using digital imaging systems. Additionally, this process uses a robot automation system which tracks the surface of the substrate and calculates the angle of inclination with help of a computer-aided software. This ensures that the substrate and the printheads are always less than 5 mm of distance, which is the optimum distance to get a high-resolution print. Thus, digital cylinder printing offers a faster turnaround time than the conventional pad printing method, due to the single-pass mechanism and no requirement of pre-setups for printing. Many companies such as Inkcups, PadJet, Automated Marking, Inc., and BottleJET are offering products to print on curved surfaces. Such developments are going to boost the digital printing ink market in the coming years.

Flexible foam is a processed polymer or plastic made up of hydrocarbons and other organic units joined with urethane connections. They exhibit various characteristics, such as high durability and enhanced shock absorption. Flexible foams are used in automotive, furniture, bedding, and packaging end-use industries. Their uses range from sponges in the kitchen and medical dressings to large filters and soundproofing devices. For the purpose of analysis, the global flexible foam market is segmented into type, application, and region. The report highlights the revenue generated from various types of flexible foams, which include polyurethane (PU) foam, polyethylene (PE) foam, polypropylene (PP) foam, ethylene-vinyl acetate (EVA), and others. The applications covered in the study include furniture & bedding, transportation, packaging, construction, and consumer goods. Region wise, the flexible foam market is analyzed across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA.

The demand for cleaner fuels has been increasing exponentially in colder regions as cleaner fuels have lower freezing points and lower densities. Due to these reasons, the automobiles that use fuel have increased the demand for cleaner fuels as they help eliminate the start-up problems during cold seasons. Countries such as Canada and the U.S. face these difficulties as the temperature during winters reaches as low as -10oC. Cleaner fuels also result in more efficient engine performance, which is a concerning matter, especially in cold seasons, when there is a minimal but effective contraction in the engine. This contraction leads to lowered performance due to ineffective fuel combustion and power generation. Countries such as Canada have implemented “Clean Fuel Standards,” which define the allowed impurity levels in the fuels. This also helps in reducing greenhouse effects as the engines become more efficient. The standards implemented in 2016, were aimed at controlling the carbon emissions by fuel economy.

Superabsorbent polymer (SAP) is a material that has high liquid absorbing capacity. It is cross-linked structure polymer, which avoids dissolution. These types of polymers can absorb liquid up to 100 times of its own weight. Therefore, it is used in products, such as child diapers/nappies, incontinence items, and others, where high absorption characteristics are required. The report focuses on types of super absorbent polymers such as synthetic and natural. The applications covered in the study include personal care, healthcare, agriculture &horticulture, and others. In addition, different production methods analyzed in the report are suspension polymerization, solution polymerization, and gel polymerization. Furthermore, the study evaluates the current market trends and suggests future growth opportunities by analyzing government regulations & policies. The report further covers the strategies adopted by the key players to sustain the competitive environment and increase their market share.

Methodical understanding of the core and adjacent markets as well as the industry changes, for the critical assessment of business dynamics of the markets in scope, including the drivers, challenges, and opportunities for various players Impact analysis of developments and initiatives made by governments as well as corporate stakeholders that influence the business environment for both market participants as well as customers Examination of competitor’s strategies and their recent developments for effective assessment of market movements at each level of the supply chain, along with supply chain analysis and supply and demand analysis for identifying the key stakeholders in the silicon photonics market Triangulation of the supply-demand gaps with business drivers and challenges to anticipate business opportunities and new revenue pockets, along with industry attractiveness analysis for identifying whether new products, services, or businesses have the potential to be profitable in the silicon photonics market

我国在2020 年9 月第七十五届联合国大会期间提出将采取更加有力的政策和措施，力争于碳排放于2030 年达到峰值，2060 年前实现碳中和。长期来看，生物基产业与部分传统高能耗、高排放石化行业的新旧动能转换将是大势所趋。建议关注卓越新能、梅花生物、凯赛生物、金丹科技、金发科技和华恒生物等。

OPEC+联合减产形成油价底部支撑，但仍需关注非OPEC 产量（加拿大重质油、巴西、中亚）、全球宏观经济下行风险与贸易风险进一步发酵对油价的影响。推荐聚酯产业链一体化建设加快并进军大炼化、布局C2/C3 轻烃裂解的优秀民营炼化企业（卫星石化、桐昆股份、恒力石化、荣盛石化、恒逸石化）；关注宝丰能源。

在油价上行、宏观经济复苏背景下，预计2021年化工行业景气度上行，我们上调行业至“强于大市”评级。目前行业估值及主要化工品价格均处于历史较低分位数水平，后续有较大提升空间。我们给出化工行业2021年十大预测，投资机会主要在碳中和、碳交易、油价上行、顺周期、农化需求、消费品、材料平台、可降解塑料、风光锂军需求、汽车地产复苏等领域。

近期我们对上市品牌商天猫官旗双十二（12.1-12.12）销售额跟踪如下：贝泰妮、珀莱雅主品牌高基数下维持25%+快速增长；华熙旗下新锐功能性护肤品牌受益细分赛道景气，爆发增长；御泥坊（御家汇）、玉泽（家化）表现可圈可点。

在疫情冲击下，2020 年油价总体呈V 型走势： 1）1 月下旬油价于疫情暴发后开始调整，3 月减产谈判破裂后加速下跌；2）5 月后随着OPEC+新减产协议启动，供给削减明显，油价开启复苏之路；3）9-10 月宏观环境较为动荡，市场悲观情绪集中爆发，进而加快了油价的下跌4）11 月后随着疫苗出台以及达成新的减产协议，油价强势复苏。

疫情导致行业至暗时刻，国内国外恢复节奏不同。2020年，疫情影响下，原油价格大幅下跌，终端需求骤然冰冻，化工行业迎来至暗时刻。二季度开始，随着防疫措施推进，全球经济艰难重启，但是国内国外恢复的节奏不同，使中国制造的竞争优势得以凸显。在此背景下，作为中国制造的重要组成部分，化工行业景气逐步走出泥淖，并在下半年开始明显受益于海外需求拉动，产品价格回升明显，并有望将强势延续，充分受益来年全球经济向上趋势。

本周化工新材料指数跑输创业板指，截至 2020 年 12 月 19 日，化工新材料指数收 1070 点，较此前的 1042 点上涨 2.73%，跑输同期创业板指的上涨 3.46%。

核心观点：根据我们方正化工测算，在民营大炼化投产，PX进口依赖大幅下降的情况下，PX价差收窄，日韩的短流程装置由于承受较大的亏损压力有望逐步被淘汰，目前已有33%的短流程装置处于无法生产的状态。中流程装置根据各自盈利能力不同，部分优秀装置持续保持较强盈利，部分落后装置处于亏损状态，为目前行业边际产能，承担较大压力，而长流程的利润优势明显。在今年的价格体系下，未来有望维持短流程PX装置逐渐出清，部分落后中流程PX装置承压，长流程装置PX盈利较好的状态。我们方正化工持续看好国内民营大炼化及部分优秀中流程装置PX端的盈利能力。

中国化工品价格指数（CCPI）：本周CCPI 较上周下跌 0.7%，较上月同期上涨1.3%，年内涨幅为5.5%，较去年同期上涨3.9%。

润滑油由基础油和添加剂组成。基础油占比在65%-98%之间，添加剂占据余下部分。润滑油添加剂可提高润滑油在机械系统中的效率并增强其性能，使其可承受极端操作环境，降低消耗。从产业链来看，润滑油添加剂上游主要为石油化工行业，下游则为汽车、航空航天、铁路、船舶、工业、润滑脂、乳化炸药等需用润滑油的领域。从产品类别来看，润滑油添加剂可分为单剂与复剂。单剂是按功能分类后具有单一特性的添加剂产品，而复剂一般是由多种单剂按一定比例调配而成的混合物，性能更佳。

化工宏观周期景气修复：十年中周期看全球化工业经历三轮景气（每轮景气2年），18H2 转入下行通道，20H1 在新冠冲击下全球化工PMI 触底，随后20H2在主要经济体的货币与财政政策刺激下迅速恢复至景气高点，下一轮景气周期或已拉开序幕。分终端看2020 年复苏是主旋律，地产链方面美国新房销售强势反转；汽车方面，2021 年国内乘用车市场有望维持正增长；其他消费方面，海外社零增长重回景气高点，“宅经济”行业受益，中国“出口替代”作用显现。

玻璃可分为平板和深加工玻璃，下游主要应用于建筑地产。玻璃分为平板玻璃和深加工玻璃，浮法玻璃是通过浮法工艺生产的平板玻璃，占总量的90%左右。玻璃的下游中建筑玻璃需求较大，占比75%。玻璃行业市场集中度低于水泥和玻纤，两大龙头旗滨集团和信义玻璃市占率分别为11%和14%，CR2 仅有25%。

上周Brent原油价格上涨0．99‰WTI原油价格上涨0．60％。化工品价格涨幅居前：维生素A、PTFE、三氯乙烯、氢氟酸、碳酸锂；跌幅居前：液氯、丙酮、活性染料、HenryHub天然气、聚碳酸酉在中金化工统计的144种产品中，有35产品周度价格上涨，32种产品周度价格下跌。