在确定投资安全边际同时，寻求高收益精选个股。

机构板块仓位从2012年的10%以上降至2014年2.5%，目前仓位继续下降。

持续推荐进口牛肉行业，我们认为海外原料端壁垒不高，如果仅从海外进 口回国内以大宗方式批发销售，利润率非常低。

截至到12月15日整体涨幅21.50%，位居申万行业28个一级分类倒数第六位。基金持仓三季度虽上升至3.87%，远低于历叱峰值的8.8%。从估值角度看，食品饮料丌论相对估值还是绝对估值目前都处于较低水平，绝对估值28.19倍处于申万行业一级分类中下水平，相对A股整体估值溢价为1.79倍，而历史均值为2.08，估值洼地效应显著。而拉长来看，板块从2012年中的鼎盛时期已经沉寂了3年之久。

一年之计在于春，春节旺季基本面旺销趋势确定，市场风格转换催生板块性机会。

婴幼儿奶粉是就根据婴儿的成长需要特别添加各种配方的奶粉。婴幼儿奶粉不同于普通的食品，它们在配方和生产工艺方面都有很高的要求。近年中国婴幼儿配方奶粉市场需求增长速度较快，2013 年，中国婴幼儿奶粉零售量为 64.31 万吨，同比增长 14.84%；中国婴幼儿配方奶粉零售市场规模为 907.74 亿元，同比增长 16.58%，其中，中国标准婴儿配方奶粉零售额为 254.7亿元，同比增长 14.51%；中国幼儿配方奶粉零售额为 398.0 亿元，同比增长19.32%；中国后续配方婴儿奶粉零售额达到 251.18 亿元，同比增长14.33%。庞大的新生儿消费群体孕育着中国婴幼儿奶粉巨大的市场空间。长期以来，婴幼儿奶粉市场一直被国外品牌垄断，如惠氏、美赞臣、雅培、雀巢、多美滋等。国内婴幼儿奶粉市场上以伊利、圣元为代表的国产品牌与多美滋、美赞臣、惠氏为代表的国外奶粉竞争十分激烈。我国奶粉市场长期被洋品牌所占据，尤其是中高端市场，国产品牌受到很大的威胁。奶粉品质问题备受消费者及业界人士关注。近年来，我国奶粉厂家狠抓质量，力图改变外资品牌在我国奶粉市场占据较大优势地位的格局，收到了一定成效。随着人们对婴幼儿奶粉营养知识逐步认识，婴幼儿生长发育必须有足够营养的奶粉，才能满足其生理需要。关心下一代首先从奶粉开始，婴幼儿奶粉向高端发展的速度猛然加快，从南向北、从城市到农村，整个婴幼儿奶粉市场出现了一种高端化的热潮。市场的变化使越来越多的婴幼儿奶粉生产厂家转向生产高档奶粉，争夺高端婴幼儿奶粉市场成了生产商和经销商的最大目标。

1月进入消费旺季；食品板块抬头，食品重点关注白酒板块。

日本食品饮料消费结构变迁：从生鲜农贸向加工食品、餐饮转变。从日本1963-1985 年消费结构看，食品饮料占比逐年下降，而交通通信、文化娱乐等占比增长较快，表明随着经济发展，人们对精神层面的需求将逐步取代生理层面的需求。日本食品饮料 70 年代初期出现过 2 位数的高速增长，之后到 90 年增长放缓基本维持个位数增长，90 年代后日本经济放缓食品饮料基本维持在负增长。日本食品饮料发展 3 大社会驱动因素为：女性进入社会、单身家庭增多、城镇化率提升，这些导致日本加工食品的兴起、餐饮的繁荣、冷冻食品规模显著增加。

Hot dogs, which are also called frankfurters, originated in the 15th century in various parts of Germany. The concept was commercialized in 1871. Then, in 1893, hot dogs were served for the first time at a baseball park in the US, after which their popularity grew till they became the most popular snack of all time. Sausages, on the other hand, are more than a 1,000 years old. The term is derived from a Latin word "salsus" which means salted. In olden days there was no method to refrigerate meat, so salting meat was the most viable option for preserving it. However, the term for sausage first came to light around 500 B.C. when it was used in a Greek play named "The Orya". Nowadays, the taste and flavor of sausages differs from country to country.

Oils and fats are important sources of nutrition and energy for the human body. They are mainly derived from oil seeds, vegetables, and animal fat. There is an evergrowing need to build nutrition, which has led to growth in their consumption. According to Oil World, the production of oils and fats totalled 196 million metric tons in 2014. The major varieties of oil include vegetable oil, soybean oil, canola oil, peanut oil, palm oil, corn oil, and olive oil.

Food intolerance is generally defined as negative physiological reactions to certain food products. Reactions are usually mild, but at times can be severe. In food intolerance, some people can tolerate a certain amount of food that affects them adversely; however, if this food is consumed in excess the body responds negatively. Some of the symptoms of food intolerance include fatigue, joint pains, dark circles under the eyes, night sweats, cramps, gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhea and gas, and heartburn.

A dietary supplement is a product that aids in ingestion, and comprises of dietary ingredient that further add nutritional value to the supplements. Dietary supplements are available as one or a combination of substances such as minerals, amino acids, vitamins, and herbs. Furthermore, dietary supplements are available in various forms such as powders, pills, tablets, liquids, and gel caps. The aim of using dietary supplements is basically to add nutrients and a few other supplements to the diet to help to improve health and reduce the risk of diseases.

Fresh foods are those foods that are unprocessed and available in a raw state and have not undergone any form of thermal processing, freezing or have had any kind of preservatives added. Consumers realize the health benefits of fresh food and there is a high demand for such products in developed and developing economies. Thus all the major market players are pursuing agreements and partnerships with retail outlets to leverage the opportunity and build a competitive edge.

Halal is an Arabic term which means "permissible" or "lawful". The opposite of halal is haram, which means "prohibited" or "unlawful". These are terms that each Muslim needs to consider in all facets of his/her life such as banking, clothes, and food. Nowadays, halal and haram hold a universal meaning and are popularly used in relation to hygienic and high-quality food products, meat products, cosmetics, personal care products, leather goods, and food ingredients. Though halal foods were initially prepared for Muslims, they are currently consumed globally by people of all religions.

Health and wellness food products can be defined as foods and beverages that are specially formulated and distinctively marketed to provide food with health or functional benefit to the consumers. The health and wellness food category is different from the standard food products but related to a number of other product categories that include functional foods, nutraceuticals, and condition-specific nutritional supplements, as well as the FDA-defined categories of foods for special dietary use and medical foods.