行业研究报告题录
电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业(2019年第10期)
(报告加工时间:2019-03-18 -- 2019-03-24)

行业资讯

境内分析报告

  • 能源竞争情报-第737期
    3 月 5 日上午,国务院总理李克强在作 2019 年政府工作报告时指出,深化电力市场化改革,清理电价附加收费,降低制造业用电成本,一般工商业平均电价再降低 10%。
  • 新能源-第595期
    2018 年 9 月中旬,国家能源局一纸红头文件掀起风电行业“摸家底”浪潮,各省(自治区、直辖市)上报纳入“十二五”建设规划但未建成的风电项目清单,并按规定予以废止或作废项目核准文件。
  • 电力-第735期
    3 月 5 日,国务院总理李克强在政府工作报告中指出,要以改革推动降低涉企收费。深化电力市场化改革,清理电价附加收费,降低制造业用电成本,一般工商业平均电价再降低 10%。深化收费公路制度改革,推动降低过路过桥费用,治理对客货运车辆不合理审批和乱收费、乱罚款。

境外分析报告

  • Bunker燃料市场报告(2018-2025年)
    Bunker fuel is the term given to any fuel oil used in marine vessels. It is poured into the ship bunkers to power its engines. The global bunker fuel market is segmented into type, commercial distributors, end user, and region. Based on type, the market is classified into marine gas oil (MGO) and residual fuel oil (RFO). Based on the commercial distributors, it is divided into oil majors, large independent, and small independent. Based on end user, it is categorized into container, bulk carrier, oil tanker, general cargo, chemical tanker, fishing vessels, and gas tanker. Based on region, the market is analyzed across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA. The report also covers the strategies adopted by the key players in the market to sustain the competitive environment and to increase their market share. Sinopec group, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, BP PLC, and Total SA are some of the major players discussed in this report, which cater to the global bunker fuel market.
  • 俄罗斯石油和天然气行业报告(2018-2019年)
    Russia started a privatisation programme for the oil sector in the 1990s, but the drive was reversed in the early 2000s when the government nationalised several companies. Currently the Russian oil and gas sector is dominated by local companies, which are predominantly controlled by the state. As of March 2018 there were 1,700 registered enterprises, operating in the segment of extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas, and about 1,500 companies operating in the segment of petroleum products. In 2017, more than 80% of Russian oil companies were vertically integrated and about 14% of natural gas companies fell within this category.
  • 墨西哥石油和天然气行业报告(2019-2020年)
    Up to 2014, the oil and gas sector in Mexico was wholly controlled by PEMEX. The lack of competitive incentives stalled investment, causing a continued decline in production and reserves since the beginning of the 2000s. From 2000 to 2013 crude oil production fell by 16.8%, which had major implications on earnings for the federal government and led to higher hydrocarbon imports. To counter these trends, in 2013 the country enacted the energy reform, a constitutional amendment that completely overhauled the regulatory framework of the sector, opening it to private participation and foreign investment. Five years on from the reform, private ownership is still at an incipient stage even though more than 100 exploration and production contracts have been awarded to local and international private players through three tenders, comprising a total of eight bidding sessions starting in 2015. Some of the awardees have made important discoveries since, but few have started commercial operations and it is hard to determine when they will begin to make a difference in total production. Furthermore, the sector’s future under Mexico’s new president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, remains unclear. Some members of his cabinet have been critical of the 2013 energy reform, calling upon the government to revise the awarded contracts, whilst promising to respect the awarded contracts if no unlawfulness is found, and even promote more bidding rounds.
  • 巴西电力行业报告(2018-2022年)
    In recent years, Brazil’s electric power sector has witnessed a restructuring process, marked by the entry and the expansion of the positions of both domestic and foreign investors, especially from the US, China and European countries. This process was further supported by the asset divestment plans of incumbent electric utilities aimed at reducing their indebtedness, which allowed the fast entry of new players at bargain prices. An additional positive impact came from government efforts to increase the country’s generation capacity – above all RES-based capacity – and improve the national power transmission network through public auctions.
  • 土耳其石油和天然气行业报告(2018-2019年)
    Turkey’s strategic geographic position at the crossroad between Asia, Europe and the Middle East, makes the country an important energy transition hub. The Turkish Straits, which include the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, are among the busiest waterways in the world and are primary oil export routes for Russia and the Asian oil producers. According to the EIA, some 48,000 vessels transit the straits each year. In 2016, an estimated 2.4 mmbbl/d of crude oil and petroleum products flowed through the Turkish Straits. Crude oil accounted for an estimated 80% of the total. Volumes peaked to more than 3.4 mmbbl/d in 2004, however Russia has shifted crude oil exports away from the Black Sea and toward the Baltic ports.

投资分析报告

  • 电气设备行业:新能源汽车月度数据总结,2月产销持续快速增长,动力电池格局向龙头集中趋势显著
    2 月新能源汽车销售5.3 万辆,同比增长53.6%,纯电动乘用车持续爆发。2月我国新能源汽车产销分别为5.9 万辆和5.3 万辆,分别同比增长50.9%和53.6%。新能源乘用车销量4.9 万辆,同比增长52.8%,其中纯电动乘用车2月产销分别为4.1 和3.7 万辆,同比增长57.1%和72.2%;插电式混动乘用车2月产销分别为1.5 和1.3 万辆,同比增长46.6%和15.1%。新能源商用车2 月产销分别为0.3 万辆和0.4 万辆,比上年同期分别增长10.9%和65.5%,补贴政策即将出台,预计近期车企对于新能源商用车排产会比较谨慎。
  • 公用事业行业:水电现金牛,资产为舟,价值为锚-三维度看水电投资机会
    水电作为基本面较稳定的板块之一,2010 年初至今(2019/3/15)SW 水电对上证综指超额收益53%,其中水电龙头长电/国投/川投2010 年初至今股价皆实现翻倍以上绝对涨幅。本文三维度剖析水电投资价值,1)买资产:关注重置资产净值低于目前市值的标的;2)买成长:优选有在建拟建装机投运/资产注入预期的标的;3)买分红:优选稳定高分红收益率标的。值得注意的是,投资者结构(包括一级市场与产业资本)变化带来无风险收益率(P/E 和股息率的锚)和预期回报率(DCF 中wacc 的主要决定因素)的变化是水电股估值近年来最大的变量,不同属性资金眼中水电价值不同。
  • 风电行业:乘风破浪会有时,直挂云帆济沧海-专题报告之海上风电
    中国新增海上风电核准量快速增加。统计数据显示2017 年我国新增海上风电项目14 个,核准容量为070MW。而在2018 年度,根据CWEA 统计,我国新增核准海上风电项目45 个,核准容量达17837MW,分布在辽宁、天津、山东、江苏、上海、浙江、福建和广东等所有沿海省市,其中福建和广东核准容量最大。这些项目将在未来几年开工,我国海上风电将呈现爆发式增长。
  • 新能源行业:叠瓦组件渗透率提升带来的设备投资机会-光伏叠瓦组件设备专题
    光伏行业组件环节未来降本增效主要依靠叠瓦技术的渗透率提高:过去几年光伏行业依靠单晶替代多晶,和PERC 高效电池技术替代普通电池技术完成了硅片和电池片两轮技术迭代带来的行业降本增效。我们判断按照目前叠瓦技术在组件环节的光电转换效率的提升,未来叠瓦可能会是组件环节新的技术革命的核心方向(同等面积叠瓦组件转换效率可达19.3-19.4%左右,传统组件效率是18.9%)。根据草根调研情况,目前叠瓦组件已具备量产的规模效应,2018 年的渗透率不足5%,我们预计叠瓦产能在2019 年有望达15GW(12%渗透率),2020 年有望达30GW 以上(22%渗透率),2021 年有望达54GW(渗透率可达30%以上)。根据我们测算,预计2019-2021 年的叠瓦组件设备的累计市场空间超110 亿。
  • 公用事业行业:少而精,简而远-电力行业可转债专题报告
    公用事业行业可转债发行数和规模在全市场居前,电力行业存量可转债数量少但融资规模占据半壁江山。截至2019 年2 月28 日,中信一级行业中公用事业行业已发行上市的可转债共计8 支,发行数和融资规模分别位列全市场并列第5 位和第7 位。其中,电力行业共有内蒙华电和福能股份2 家公司已发行可转债,合计融资规模达到47.05 亿元,融资规模占公用事业行业可转债总量的57.72%。电力及燃气行业可转债募资主要投向已有项目增资和新项目开发收购。2010 年至今,共有8 家电力及燃气公司已发行或拟发行可转债,从募集资金用途来看,绝大多数均用于旗下核心资产项目投资开发以及参股项目收购。
  • 电力行业:1-2月电力统计数据出炉,推荐核电与大水电-动态跟踪报告
    2019 年1-2 月全国电力工业生产简况:3 月21 日,国家能源局公布1-2 月电力工业统计数据。1-2 月全国全社会用电量11063 亿千瓦时,同比增长4.5%,比上年同期减少8.8 个百分点;发电量10982 亿千瓦时,同比增长2.9%,比上年同期减少8.1 个百分点;累计平均利用小时611 小时,比上年同期减少3 小时。截至2 月底,全国装机容量18.09亿千瓦,同比增长5.6%,比上年同期减少0.7 个百分点;1-2 月新增装机容量1189 万千瓦,比上年同期减少1179 万千瓦。
  • 电力设备行业:估值有所修复,看好光伏和动力电池板块-二季度投资策略报告
    2019 年以来,电气设备(申万)指数涨幅超过34%,行业整体估值从2019年初的22.6 倍提升到2019 年3 月13 日的约30.5 倍。电气设备(申万)三级行业中,计量仪表板块涨幅最大,为45.16%,低压设备涨幅最小,为13.42%。电气设备(申万)192 支成分股中,泰永长征(-17.25%)和森源电气(-12.30%)下跌。涨幅前五个股分别为明阳智能(155.12%)、雄韬股份(142.24%)、风范股份(131.94%)、光一科技(106.75%)和东方电子(82.17%)。
  • 电气设备行业:吉林风电限建解禁,泛在电力物联网提出建设战略安排
    电力设备: 国网召开“泛在电力物联”专项会议,提出两阶段建设战略安排。重点关注软件层:岷江水电、国电南瑞、远光软件;硬件层:金智科技、海兴电力、新联电子等。

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