临近 2016 年的尾声，商务部印发了《全国药品流通行业发展规划（ 2016-2020年）》，这也是继我国首次发布药品流通行业十二五发展规划之后，再次从国家层面为未来五年药品流通领域的发展确定目标和指明方向。同时这也意味着，在当前“健康中国”战略实施和医药改革不断深入的大背景下，我国药品流通业的转型升级将更加迫切，“十三五”期间，药品流通产业将进入加速整合和洗牌阶段。

Marijuana, one of the premium variants of cannabis, is used for recreational (psychoactive drugs) and medicinal purposes. It contains a maximum 30% of cannabinoids (CBD) and tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), which is a major psychoactive element. Usage of marijuana for recreational purpose is expected to increase significantly over the forecast period, which in turn, can lead to increase in the global demand for marijuana. Vendors are introducing different products like marijuana-based tablets and topical applications to propel the sale of marijuana. In 2015, the market generated the major part of its revenue from the sales of marijuana through retail and convenience stores. The global legal marijuana market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 37.35% during the forecast period.

The concept of reference laboratory is a recent phenomenon. Reference laboratories are private as well as commercial facilities that usually perform specialty and highvolume testing routinely. Physicians' offices, clinics, hospitals, government agencies, insurance companies, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology companies outsource most of their specialty tests to reference laboratories. Though mid- and large-sized hospitals perform most of the tests at their in-house laboratories but approach reference laboratories for specialized tests that usually require specialized equipment.

The global bone-anchored hearing aids market is a niche segment of the global hearing aids market and accounted for a market share of 2.47% in 2015. The global bone-anchored hearing aids market is expected to see a stronger substantial growth compared with other hearing aids in the market. The factors such as sound quality, less expensive than its alternative (cochlear implant), low maintenance cost, better comfort, and reduced ear infection will encourage customers to opt bone-anchored hearing aids over other hearing aids available in the market.

There is a strong awareness among pet owners for pet food products not meeting the nutritional requirement of pets. Pet owners are paying more attention to the quality of food they are providing to their pets and are realizing the potential benefits such nutritional and dietary supplements have on their pets' health. Many of these added supplements also target specific health issues. Pet owners, therefore, are increasingly willing to spend on these products. The demand for pet dietary supplements is also increasing due to the growing recognition of their effectiveness in providing suitable nutrition to pets. The global pet dietary supplements market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.26% during the forecast period.

Diagnostic wearable medical devices, used for monitoring, controlling, and tracking an individual's vital signs at regular intervals, have gained momentum in the past few years. These devices measure physiological information through remote or wireless communication and transmit this information to medical professionals or the user. These autonomous, non-invasive devices help assess specific medical functions such as body temperature, blood pressure, glucose quantity, respiratory rate, heart rate, and blood oxygen saturation.

本周期招标采购分为两轮，520 基药标和分类采购标。①2013 年开始的520 版基药目录招标于2016 年9 月份陕西省完成基药标后全部结束，3年招15 个省份，进度慢于预期。②2015 年7 号文和70 号启动本轮分类采购，不区分基药和非基药，按照5 大类开展招标，除去广东和重庆通过药交所每月进行交易外，1 年时间8 省份基本完成主体的招标采购，稳步推进。

中泰新三板医药最新观点：关于在公立医疗机构药品采购中推行“两票制”的实施意见（试行）要求公立医疗机构药品采购中逐步推行“两票制”，争取到 2018 年在全国全面推开。我们认为“两票制”是规范药品流通秩序、压缩流通环节、打击“过票洗钱”、降低虚高药价的重要举措，利好大型药品流通企业以及连锁药店，同时区域性流通企业和连锁药店亦可通过低层本的兼并重组快速提升业务规模，建议关注康泽药业、达嘉维康、泰恩康、美福润等。“十三五”深化医药卫生体制改革规划提出在分级诊疗、现代医院管理等 5 项制度建设上取得新突破，建议关注民营医院、区域性检验中心、影像中心、高性价比药企、医疗信息化企业等在下一个五年的投资机会。本周芍花堂和恒升医学公告接受上市辅导。

公立医院是我国医药产业的最大载体，2016 年11 月8 日《国务院深化医药卫生体制改革领导小组关于进一步推广深化医药卫生体制改革经验的若干意见》，其中指出：我国公立医院将全面取消药品加成、药品采购实行两票制、降低药费和耗材费用，药品实际采购价和医保支付标准之间的差价将由医院所有。

国内血透透析率相比国外提升空间巨大。我国目前有超过300 万人的终末期肾病患者，而接受透析治疗的患者不到20%，远低于发达国家70%-90%的水平，主要原因是终末期肾衰竭治疗费用高昂，在农村或中西部等经济落后地区难以推广。另外之前国家对透析中心的设置有严格管制，卫生部规定只有二级甲等及以上资质医院单位才有资格开办血液透析中心，透析中心集中于发达地区，难以满足基层患者需求。

展望 2017，考虑到流动性预期边际向下，新股 IPO节奏加快等因素，我们认为寻找估值提升的逻辑可能难度较大，建议投资者考虑以下几种选股思路：1）业绩稳定增长，估值较低（估值不变赚业绩增长的钱）；2）估值不低但业绩超预期（业绩向上的力量抵消估值向下的动能）；3）低预期下的业绩反转（可能戴维斯双击）。

从2015年开始，医药行业进入优化调整期。15-16年行业增速触底、各地招标推进、政策密集发布、药监系统改革，医药行业正在向正确的方向走，从17年开始进入布局时期。

上周医药股跑输大盘。我们认为2016年行业改革进度加速，2017年作为政策的落实年，行业改革进度依然会加速推进。上周发布了多个十三五规划，《“十三五”深化医药卫生体制改革规划》，《“十三五”卫生与健康规划》，《“十三五” 生物产业发展规划》及《关于在公立医疗机构药品采购中推行 “两票制”的实施意见》。

CMO，即合同定制生产组织(Contract Manufacturing Organization)，其业务涉及药物生产的各个环节，包括药物生产工艺和处方开发，临床试验用药、化学药原料药和中间体、高活性原料药、制剂的生产和药品包装等方面。近年来，“专利断崖”到来和研发成本提升加速了大型药企的外包进程，通过将药物研发和生产中部分环节向CMO 企业外包以达到提升自身经营效率,降低营运成本，分散研发风险的目的。此外，中小型新药研发企业的兴起也进一步刺激外包需求增长。

2016 年医药板块市场表现较弱，从年初至12 月15 日，申万医药生物板块下跌14.23%，其中生物制品板块下跌14.12%，沪深300 指数下跌10.47%，医药板块整体跑输沪深300 指数3.76%，涨跌幅在申万28 个一级子行业中排名第17 位。估值方面，当前医药板块相对全部A 股的估值溢价率处于近5年来的低位水平。子板块方面，生物制品板块估值居中，仅低于医疗服务板块与医疗器械板块，相对全部A 股的估值溢价率处于近5 年来的中游水平。

行业目前处于剧烈洗牌期，对于医药行业长期稳定发展，我们仍然保持乐观。医改全面深化，医药控存量调增量，医保调控是常态，公立医院改革全面推行，为医药行业迎来高质量成长期奠定坚实基础。在目前行业增速筑底期，从行业趋势及政策主线角度，我们建议关注四个领域：需求方变化带来的机会、仿制药一致性评价+政策扶持+医保支付标准受益机会、医保目录调整机会、两票制推行带来的机会。

IVD 行业整体估值溢价率较高，关注结构性分化。根据我们对IVD行业指数一年运行情况的跟踪，基于对未来整个医药行业发展方向和趋势的判断，认为目前IVD 板块整体还处于高位运行状态，结构性分化已经明显，行业二级市场的估值溢价率风险没有完全释放。我们将IVD 指数与自行拟合的白马股指数进行比较，从指数涨跌幅，估值和估值溢价率变化情况，以及板块的财务指标等角度，比较这两个不同的细分板块。我们认为IVD 板块整体处于高估值溢价率状态，应该关注行业的结构性分化机会。