近年来，城镇化率的持续提升，使得居民潜力需求红利逐步释放，需求量和品质均有显著提升，城市在让生活和消费更加美好。展望来年，白酒行业持续加速复苏，高端稳赚业绩，次高端蕴含更大潜力， 食品板块受益城镇化提速及消费升级，龙头尽享行业红利，改善企业焕发新春，板块估值可看更高，子行业中乳业及调味品最优，伊利等公司有望重走 15 年茅台、16 年海天的估值提升之路。全年节奏上，行业 Q1 报表低基数高增长，春节及一季报是重要时点，白酒有望重演 17 年，估值切换提前，食品 Q1 后业绩预测上调市值上新台阶，Q3 后当年估值有望再创新高。

2017年板块回顾：前三季度，食品饮料板块涨幅第一，表现最好的是白酒、乳制品、调味品。估值上，板块整体和饮料制造高于历史均值，食品加工略低于历史均值。配置上，17Q3基金配置对食品饮料尤其是白酒的配置水平已高于09年均值，但未到高点，板块整体配置系数2.47处于超配状态。

2017年白酒各企业焕发生机，稳中求变。展望2018年，白酒行业仍处于上行通道，龙头酒企带领行业大步向前。17Q4：中秋销售火爆，高端酒供需关系紧张。四季度泸州老窖、剑南春、洋河等品牌调整了酒类价格体系，为明年做准备。随着中高端白酒市场的持续扩容和大众品消费的回暖，名优酒量价齐升有望逐步恢复到2012年水平。

The global probiotics market is growing at a moderate rate owing to the increasing awareness about the various health benefits associated with probiotic products among consumers. Probiotic products are known to help in curing and preventing gastrointestinal illnesses such as irritable bowel syndrome, inflammatory bowel disease, and diarrhea. They are also used in functional foods such as dairy products to help in digestion, reduce cholesterol levels, enhance brain function, and increase immunity. Furthermore, consumers are now aware of the detoxification and anti-aging properties of probiotics. They are also aware that probiotic products can improve immunity. Hence, consumers are now more exposed to information regarding probiotic products on the internet, through advertisements and other media channels.

Tequila is made from the blue agave plant found in Mexico. Agave can be grown only in the following areas: Jalisco, Nayarit, Tamaulipas, Michoacán, and Guanajuato. However, blue agave is grown only in the Jalisco state of Mexico, which is used in the preparation of 100% tequila.

The global vermouth market is mainly driven by new product launches and premiumization of products. These factors are aiding in the market's growth both in terms of revenue and volume. The introduction of new packaging formats by players operating in this space and the growing popularity of private labels in the US and some European countries are also positive factors for the market. However, natural disasters and adverse weather conditions, coupled with stringent government regulations, constitute significant risk factors for the market's growth.

我国普洱茶行业整体规模大概 120 亿元，过去五年产销量与产值增速均达到 20%，预计到 2022 年市场规模将超过 300 亿元，还存在一倍以上空间。普洱茶产业从本世纪初发展起来先后经历了 07、14 两次高峰与低谷，并从2014 年开始进入深度调整期，我们认为此轮调整也预示普洱茶消费市场进入爆发式增长的拐点。

经过 2012 年至 2014 年的深度调整，葡萄酒行业收入及利润总额增速在2015 年开始触底反弹，未来有望开启恢复性增长。1999 年至 2012 年的14 年间，葡萄酒行业年平均收入增速高达 22%，利润总额年平均增速更是达到 26%。