India is a significant player in the global gems and jewellery market. Gold, in particular, has important cultural importance in India and gold jewellery is frequently purchased for weddings or religious festivals. Additionally, gold jewellery is also used as a form of savings, especially in rural parts of the country where many Indians still do not have easy access to formal financial institutions. In recent years, the tastes of Indian consumers have been shifting. Economic growth has created a widening Indian middle class that has been looking for different aesthetics compared with traditional, heavy gold jewellery. This has created rising demand for jewellery made from other precious metals including silver and platinum, and for diamond jewellery.

Peru is among the leading global players in the production of metallic minerals. In 2017, the country ranked second in the world in terms of silver, copper and zinc output, with global shares of 17.2%, 12.4% and 11.2%, respectively. Moreover, it was the fourth-largest molybdenum and lead manufacturer (with shares of 9.7% and 6.5%). In 2016, mining was Peru’s second-largest economic sector, accounting for 7.7% of GDP, 3.6% of total employment and 58.8% of national exports. However, over the period 2012-2016, the sector was affected by the negative phase in the cycle of international metal commodity prices, which caused a 5.8% average annual decline in revenues from mining exports. At the same time, the volume of foreign sales of mining products rose at a CAGR of 3.9% over the same period, pushed up by the strong performance of domestic output, which increased at a CAGR of 5%.

动力煤价格先扬后抑，炼焦煤价格保持稳定，无烟块煤企稳反弹。6 月底，秦港山西产 Q5500 报价 677 元/吨，环比上涨 5.62%；京唐港主焦煤报价 1760 元/吨，与上月持平；1/3 焦煤报价 1390 元/吨，环比上涨 1.46%；晋城无烟中块车板价报价 1200 元/吨，环比上涨 10.1%；长治喷吹煤 892 元/吨，环比上涨 1.13%；NEWC 动力煤 116.77 美元/吨，环比上涨 7.54%。

受前期煤价持续下跌的影响，煤企固定资产投资大幅下滑，而煤炭作为重资产行业，新增产能复苏仍需时日。根据国家能源局公布的在建煤矿数据测算，全年可释放产量约 2 亿吨，而由于去产能重点转向在产产能，预计全年 1.5 亿吨的去产能计划中，涉及在产产能约 1 亿吨，致使全年净增产量仅 1 亿吨左右，同比增长 2.8%。 

今年以来煤炭供需超预期，一方面受制于安监环保较严的力度，在建矿投产进度较慢，供给端释放也并不快，前 5 月全国原煤产量仅小幅增长 4.0%，进口煤近 2 月增速也大幅回落；另一方面，需求也好于预期，1-5 月火电发电量、粗钢产量累计同比分别上涨 8.1%和 5.4%。

态势。2017 年以来全球煤炭需求同步步入上升期，产能出清叠加下行期投资严重不足，供给相对增量有限，供需错配推动国际煤价逐步上扬，尤其今年以来趋势较国内更为明显。未来全球将迎来新一轮火电装机窗口期，边际拉动上，印度、印尼、日本以及“一带一路”国家巴基斯坦等需求拉动力逐步增强。

今年以来煤炭供应偏紧，产量对需求变化的适应能力不足，供给缺乏弹性。是造成煤价大起大落的原因之一，安监环保趋严且常态化加重了供应偏紧。进口管制较严，对需求变化同样弹性不足，有待放松。预计2018年煤炭产量同比增加1.2 亿吨或3.6%至35.7 亿吨。我们认为进一步增加供给以及增加其对需求变化的弹性是有必要的。