中央金融工作会议提出，“要充实货币政策工具箱，在央行公开市场操作中逐步增加国债买卖”。这意味着央行投放资金的方式发生重大转变，引发广泛关注与联想。那么，应该如何理解这一变化？

近年来，美国主权债务持续增长，美国国债余额屡创新高且尚未看到逆转迹象，美国债务可持续性问题，甚至美元信任风险浮出水面。美国债务持续高增的背后本质是一个始于原始赤字的三角恶性循环，为控制该循环风险，减赤控债较为科学但对美国而言难行。凭借美元地位优势和诸多约束，短期内让“雪球”一直滚动下去可能性更高，但不可避免会有诸多外溢效应，包括利率上下两难、通胀韧性风险、美元信任风险等。

行业相对强弱指数的年度信号——高股息、资源品、出海和 AI。截止 2024 年 4 月底右侧景气趋势模型表现优异，相对 wind 全 A 指 数超额 5.3%，绝对收益 3.5%。若进一步叠加 PB-ROE 选股，策略超额 12.8%，绝对收益 11.0%，在底部反弹时跟上趋势并且超额收益稳定。当前观点与之前基本一致，建议以“稳定高股息＋资源品”为底仓，进攻端超配出海和 AI。此外，每年 4 月底我们会及时更新行业相对强弱 RS 指标，提示年度级别的行业信号。当前出现 RS>90 的行业有：煤炭、农林牧渔、电力及公用事业、家电、银行、石油石化、通信、有色金属和汽车。和行业配置模型一致，主线模型提示了四个年度配置方向：高股息、资源品、出海和 AI。历史上轮动模型和主线模型形成共振时，有更大概率成为当年领涨行业，当年更有赚钱效应，值得重点关注。

2024年1月《梳理市场“跌不动”的方向》和《上证50回来的三条线索》再度提示大盘布局机会；《2015年“救市”的回顾与推演》和《市场底部五维跟踪体系与 组合对策》指引如何把握股市流动性冲击下的行情节奏。主要风向标城市全面或局部解除限购引发本轮地产上涨约8%。北京、深圳、杭州、成都、西安等地纷纷优化调整房地产政策，取消住房限购、缩短购房个税和社保缴纳年限等。

2023 年银行净息差持续收窄，各类银行净息差普遍下跌，净利润增速下滑，商业银行或难以通过“利润转增”等内源性补充渠道来补充净资产。经济下行压力下，银行不良资产增加，农商行不良贷款率上行，引起资本充足率下降，核销规模和风险拨备计提增加，削弱了内源性渠道的补充作用，加剧银行资本金不足。在当前经济恢复、加力服务实体经济的背景下，银行信贷投放的持续增长加剧了银行的资本消耗，商业银行需要扩充资本以支撑信贷投放的增加。

低信贷不等同于经济支持力度弱。信贷总量增速从两位数的高增变成个 位数，但当前信贷增速“换挡”不能与“支持实体经济力度减弱”划等号。一是政策对资金空转愈加重视，关注点从“量”变成“质”。二是金 融业增加值核算方式优化，对总量有下拉影响。三是各省贷款增速与经济增速无必然联系。总体看，央行的思维可能已经改变，不追求信贷高增，统计局的统计口径也做了调整，这些变化一脉相承。

2023 年 GDP 规模在千亿元以上的发债区县数量达 199 个，主要分布在江浙粤鲁这种经济大省，数量合计 111 个。从 GDP 同比增速来看，经济大省的发债区县增速中位数为 6.2%，而重点化债省份的区县增速中位数为 5.1%。

传统信用风险指标存在滞后性，我们基于交易特征构建的信用风险监测指标领先传统指标 1-12 个月，高风险组合年化负向超额 6.3%，剔除信用风险组合之后，低估组合年化提升 1.0% 至 18.8%。

A 股结构分化特征与风格轮动规律：观察近年各指数年度收益情况，发现市场“一九”效应凸显，除了极端风格的涨跌分化，多数主流指数分化显著减弱，传统策略 Alpha 空间被大大压缩，押注极端风格及跟随风格趋势成为部分机构在策略上的首要选择。

上市券商是打造一流投行及投资机构的核心力量，也是加快推进金融强国建设过程中 的关键环节。2009 年，证监会首次发布《关于加强上市证券公司监管的规定》，并分 别于 2010 年、2020 年进行了修订，但从实施效果看，我国上市券商在公司治理、投资者保护、信息披露、合规风控等方面与国际一流投行还有很大差距。2024 年 4 月， 新“国九条”颁布，同日，证监会就《关于加强上市证券公司监管的规定》等 6 项制 度规则向社会公开征求意见。《规定》作为“1+N”制度体系中的“N”，与新“国九条”共同完善资本市场制度建设。

At present, the whole world is experiencing strict data privacy legislation. Globally operating organizations have no options left but to adopt cross-border and cross-regulatory compliance strategies to operate efficiently. One of the major factors that have drastically impacted the way companies interact with customers and use their data is the growing data protection regulations by the governments of different countries. One such regulation is General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), a data privacy regulation enforced by European Union (EU) on May 2018. As per the GDPR, an organization must take consent from the citizen whose personal data it wants to process. Apart from GDPR, various other privacy laws prevail across the globe, such as Brazil’s Lei Geral de Proteçao de Dados (LGPD) and California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Consent management platforms and solutions help the website meet the GDPR and compliance by gaining user consent for collecting their data for further use during website visits via cookies. They also help the websites automate and simplify the consent management process.

Some of the other drivers fuelling the growth of consent management market include stricter data privacy regulations, proliferation of data-driven technologies, increasing awareness and concerns for data privacy, and increasing demand for improved the customer experience. On the other hand, some of the restraining factors of the consent management market include diverse regional regulations, user resistance and consent fatigue, cost of compliance, and implementation challenges. The rise in incidents of data breaches across various industries is propelling the growth of the consent management market. For instance, in November 2021, California Pizza Kitchen (CPK), a restaurant chain, revealed a data breach that exposed the personal details of ~100,000 current and former employees. To reduce such data breaches and protect the information of the citizens, governments of various countries are enhancing their data protection regulations, which is further raising the need for consent management solutions. Furthermore, the growing need for the integration of blockchain technology in consent management solutions to augment user control and privacy will further propel the growth of the consent management market during the forecast period.

At present, the whole world is experiencing strict data privacy legislation. Globally operating organizations have no options left but to adopt cross-border and cross-regulatory compliance strategies to operate efficiently. One of the major factors that have drastically impacted the way companies interact with customers and use their data is the growing data protection regulations by the governments of different countries. One such regulation is General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), a data privacy regulation enforced by European Union (EU) on May 2018. As per the GDPR, an organization must take consent from the citizen whose personal data it wants to process. Apart from GDPR, various other privacy laws prevail across the globe, such as Brazil’s Lei Geral de Proteçao de Dados (LGPD) and California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Consent management platforms and solutions help the website meet the GDPR and compliance by gaining user consent for collecting their data for further use during website visits via cookies. They also help the websites automate and simplify the consent management process.

At present, the whole world is experiencing strict data privacy legislation. Globally operating organizations have no options left but to adopt cross-border and cross-regulatory compliance strategies to operate efficiently. One of the major factors that have drastically impacted the way companies interact with customers and use their data is the growing data protection regulations by the governments of different countries. One such regulation is General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), a data privacy regulation enforced by European Union (EU) on May 2018. As per the GDPR, an organization must take consent from the citizen whose personal data it wants to process. Apart from GDPR, various other privacy laws prevail across the globe, such as Brazil’s Lei Geral de Proteçao de Dados (LGPD) and California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Consent management platforms and solutions help the website meet the GDPR and compliance by gaining user consent for collecting their data for further use during website visits via cookies. They also help the websites automate and simplify the consent management process. Some of the other drivers fuelling the growth of consent management market include stricter data privacy regulations, proliferation of data-driven technologies, increasing awareness and concerns for data privacy, and increasing demand for improved the customer experience. On the other hand, some of the restraining factors of the consent management market include diverse regional regulations, user resistance and consent fatigue, cost of compliance, and implementation challenges.

Cloud ERP is known as an enterprise resource planning software that can be accessed over the Internet. Hosted on a provider’s cloud computing platform, cloud ERP is typically delivered as a service (software-as-a-service or SaaS ERP). Cloud ERP software provides various advantages; one of the largest advantages of cloud ERP software is its almost limitless customizability. Add-on solutions, open APIs, industry-specific functions, and role-based dashboards allow companies to implement powerful decision-making tools, unparalleled data visibility, and a future-proof platform for success. Enterprises can implement chosen editions that have been designed to the needs of their specific industries— distribution, manufacturing, retail, and construction, among others. The field and office teams work in tandem to complete multiple projects under budget and on time, but challenges arise when they do not have efficient information. Constructionspecific ERP software integrates applications and systems—including financials, job cost accounting, inventory, CRM, payroll, and project management, among others—for a complete, real-time view of the business that instantly connects all workers in the team.

在“央行—商业银行”货币体系下，央行通过各类货币政策工具向商业银行投放基础货币，商业银行则通过发放贷款的方式进行信用派生。央行的操作行为都会体现在资产负债表上，不同的操作行为对应的资产负债端的科目也不一样。因此，深入把握央行资产负债表对于我们理解央行的行为至关重要。

中国目前是全球最大的机器人市场，占全球安装量的52%。工业机器人产 量全球占比45%。中国工业机器人市场规模2023年达到610亿元，人形机器人市场规模预计2024年将达到200亿元。

我们对科技创新公司债、科创票据研究已久，于去年 8 月起陆续发布科创票据、科技创新公司债、混合型科创票据市场、高技术行业产业债深度解析相关的 6 篇专题报告。本篇分析科创品种债 2024 年 以来发行结构，以及首次发行科技创新公司债（以下简称“科创公司债”）、科创票据的主体的特征。

收益率是决定资金投向的一个关键性因素，如果金融市场收益率较低，实体投资收益率在扣除风险补偿后仍然较高，则会增加实体经济的吸引力。从投资性价比角度来看，当前我国金融市场投资收益率相对贷款利率可能偏高，国债、同业存单、企业债等金融产品相对吸引力偏强，一定程度上会影响资金进入实体经济的幅度，进而影响货币供给的有效性。随着经济增速下降，投资收益率也会降低，需要较低的利率水平与之配套。国际经验显示，美国和日本在经历经济增长降速换挡后，利率水平均同步下行，经常处于极低水平。中长期看，我国经济增速已在缓慢下降，利率有下行诉求。实际利率角度，无论与国际相比，还是与我国历史中枢水平相比，当前我国实际利率明显偏高。

泡沫危机爆发后日本寿险业陷入长达二十年的利差损，前后共有七家寿险公司相继破产，反观我国寿险业，负债及资产均优于彼时的日本。利差损的爆发时期（1990-2001 年），非“一日之失”，而是风险长久积累后的逐渐爆发。风险积累：1990 前日本经济快速增长叠加较高的预定利率，1960-1990 年寿险保费收入 CAGR 高达 16.9%，寿险深度由 1.6%大幅提至 6.2%，且预定利率在 6%以上，再是超长期储蓄产品占比提升，积累了大量的、高成本的、超长期负债。风险爆发，泡沫经济破灭导致股市和房市先后崩盘，长端利率快速下行，而彼时行业资产结构配置非常激进（1990 年国债占比仅 3.8%，贷款、股票高达 37.9%、 22%），且资负久期缺口高达 10-15 年，因此利差损危机开始爆发。