2020年1-4月，我国化工行业运行呈现以下特征。一是在政策支持和投资项目建设力度进一步加大的双重作用下，化工行业固定资产投资回升态势持续。二是各地积极推进复工复产保障产品供应，化工生产企业复产增产势头良好，增加值虽持续负增长但降幅有所收窄。主要产品产量虽有所下降，但普遍降幅收窄。三是化工下游需求正在恢复，但减产协议规模不足以弥补石油需求下降，国际原油价格并未得到提振，大多数化工产品价格下跌。化工行业工业生产者出厂价格指数有所下降，低于同期工业生产者出厂价格指数。四是部分化工品出口退税上调，提高了化工企业出口积极性，化工出口交货值降幅收窄。五是疫情冲击宏观经济，导致企业经营下滑明显，2020年1-4月企业整体营收和利润增速仍大幅下降，但降幅较1-3月有所收窄。

Seal coating, also known as pavement sealing, is a process of applying a protective layer/coating to asphalt-based road pavements for providing a layer of protection against elements, such as water, oils, and UV damage. Seal coating protects and prolongs the life expectancy of asphalt pavement by filling surface damage and providing a protective layer to keep out damaging UV rays, vehicle fluids, and water. Apart from the above-mentioned, appearance is a big advantage of sealing an asphalt driveway. Using a sealer will ensure that the driveway looks much cleaner, with a smooth and sleek finish. Road construction is rising moderately, owing to the increasing population sizes and GDP, particularly in developing nations. By the end of 2018, there were around 200 strategic projects under construction in Germany. The total investments in value of the projects stood at USD 129.6 billion. The largest infrastructure project under execution in Germany is the expansion of Brandenburg Airport in Berlin, which is valued at USD 7 billion. The German federal government has focused on the infrastructure growth in the country. Under the 2030 FTIP (Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan), the government has planned to invest USD 147.6 billion in the development of roads in the country, between 2016 and 2030.

Wall coverings protect the wall surface from accidental marks or scratches, besides imparting an air of quality and grandeur to uncovered walls. They further help in interior décor while customizing it with the help of various colors and patterns. Also, these coverings are cost effective. The two common areas of applications of wall coverings include residential and commercial. Residential wall coverings are mainly used in homes and small businesses to add attractiveness to rooms and to express individual style. Many qualities of wallpaper, including color, texture, and design can drastically change the appearance of any room. Commercial wall coverings are used by interior designers, architects, and to enhance the interiors of offices, restaurants, hotels, hospitals, schools, stores, and many other public spaces. Several types of commercial wall-covering products implement high design, while protecting the walls from scuffs, etc.

SiC fibers are manufactured with the help of pyrolysis of organosilicon polymers, such as polycarbosilane. Another method for the production of SiC fibers is the use of the CVD (chemical vapor deposition) method. High strength along with a lightweight, stability over high temperature, and resistance from oxidation and corrosion make it an ideal material to be across various ends use industries such as aerospace and defense, power and energy, chemical, automotive, and others. The rising focus towards the advancement of the performance of commercial and military aircraft is continuously driving the demand for high performance structural materials in the aerospace industry. Composite materials have gained acceptance for aviation and aerospace applications owing to exceptional strength coupled with superior physical properties and stiffness-to-density ratios. The aerospace industry is considered as the prime user of SiC fibers. The use of SiC fibers is important for application dealing in extreme mechanical loads at high temperatures (up to 1900 K in the air) and cannot be met out with any metallic material or intermetallic materials. Another most significant application field of silicon carbide composites relates to the manufacturing of such materials in spacecraft, which could possess lightweight and thermo-mechanical properties at the same time and could bear high temperatures. They are also used to manufacture thruster nozzles, reusable rocket nozzles, thermal protection systems, and turbo pump components for space vehicles. The growing application of silicon carbide fibers reinforced composites is motivating the manufacturers to replace the metal parts in aircraft with the fibers so as to boost the fuel efficiency of aircraft engines and used in the manufacturing of engines, thermal protection systems, and turbopumps. Companies are looking forward to expanding the application base of SiC fibers in the aerospace industry. For instance, in March 2017, it was reported that General Electric had adopted SiC fibers-based CMCs to produce its newgeneration jetliner engines so as to improve fuel efficiency. Furthermore, SiC fibers is also being demanded by the power generation industry. They are used to manufacture land-based gas turbine engines, radiation blankets, furnaces, and components, and other materials in the power and energy generation industry.

Genetically-modified (GM) and hybrid seeds are a significant step forward in the production of agricultural crops. Adoption of new seed technologies such as genetically modified seeds and hybrid seeds has an acute impact on seed coating market. The growers are inclined to use GM and hybrid seeds for various reasons. Some of them would be lower production costs, fewer pest problems, reduced use of pesticides, and better yields. Higher the consumption of GM seeds, more the scope of seed coatings manufacturers. Because of the high cost associated with GM and hybrid seeds, manufacturers are coating their seeds to ensure high germination percentage.

The global stored grain insecticide market (henceforth, referred to as the market studied) was valued at USD 236.7 million in 2019, and it is projected to reach USD 311.1 million by 2025, at a CAGR of 4.7% during the forecast period. • As of 2019, Asia-Pacific dominated the market with a share of 29.8%. In the same year, China dominated the market with a share of 34.7%. As per FAO, food grain production in the country increased by 3% in the past five years, and it is projected to go up by 4% during the forecast period. Minimal post-harvest wastage of food grains is projected to be achieved by stored grain insecticides, which, in turn, is expected to drive the market studied. • By application, the on-farm segment dominated the market with a share of 48.1%, in 2019. storcide II, reldan, malathion, centynal, or suspend were the widely used stored grain insecticides during the study period. • By product type, organophosphates are the most widely used insecticides. However, due to stringent government rules, coupled with the advent of bioinsecticides as a potent substitute, the growth rate of organophosphate is projected to be low during the forecast period.

营收及净利润方面，根据 Wind 数据显示，单季度营业收入呈现 上升趋势，营收增速自 2017 年 Q1 起出现持续下滑，2020 年 Q1 季度 受疫情影响出现同比下滑（-12.16%）；从归母净利润情况来看，2019 年 Q4 季度受*ST 盐湖大额亏损影响，行业归母净利润出现大幅下滑， 但即使剔除*ST 盐湖亏损额环比仍然下滑严重，2020Q1 季度净利润继 续同比下滑，且下滑幅度大于营收下滑幅度。

行业展望： 年初至今化工行业盈利加速下滑，主要受行业景气周期向下、疫 情影响需求、油价暴跌三重利空因素所致。中期来看需求仍将是最大变量， 建议关注内生增长动力强劲的行业龙头，及业绩持续增长确定性强且有估值 优势的优质成长股，推荐农化、电子化学品、尾气处理材料、食品添加剂、 钛白粉等细分行业。

投资建议。化工整体价格低迷，中性评级。建议关注：（1）基建受益标的天铁 股份、苏博特等。（2）农化受益通胀，农产品价格上涨，拉动农民种植积极性， 有利于提升农化行业景气度，建议关注：国光股份、中化化肥（港股）等。（3） 新材料建议关注：万润股份、濮阳惠成等。化工转债建议关注：博特转债、天 铁转债、光华转债等。

复盘历史，我们发现化工行业的周期性在不断钝化，市场 对标的估值和营收增速越来越看重。因此，我们推荐三条 投资主线:1.业绩增长确定、有壁垒的周期大白马。如万华 化学等；2.有确定增量的子行业，如即将投产大炼化项目 的化纤板块龙头恒逸石化等；3.新材料板块，建议着重关 注涉及 5G 通信材料的 LCP、半导体以及面板 LCD、OLED、 碳纤维等相关子行业的龙头。

5 月化工价格指数上涨4.5%，主要由于同期Brent 原油价格上涨40%以及国内复工拉动化工品需求改善。展望6 月，随着产油国继续执行减产，全球疫情缓解与复工继续深化，我们预计原油、化工品价格有望继续上涨。板块方面，看好涨价周期品：MDI、煤化工与农药；以及科技与产业升级主线的新材料：受益国产替代的半导体材料、国六标准带动需求快速增长的沸石与蜂窝陶瓷等。

工信部召开座谈会推进四川省危化品企业搬迁改造。5月 22 日，为扎实推进 2020 年城镇人口密集区危险化学品生产企业搬迁 改造及长江经济带化工污染防治工作，工业和信息化部原材料工 业司以视频会形式召开四川省危化品企业搬迁改造暨长江经济带 化工污染防治工作推进情况座谈会。工业和信息化部原材料工业 司肯定了四川省 2019 年及 2020 年一季度危化品企业搬迁改造及 沿江化工污染防治工作取得的成绩，要求四川省加快推进园区评 价认定及长江沿线 1 公里内化工企业搬改关，进一步完善细化工 作台账、固化工作任务、落实责任分工，对尚未完成的企业要倒排 时间表，按月调度推进情况，实现“挂图作战、销号管理”，确保 搬迁改造任务按时完成。

我们在2020年1月的可降解塑料行业报告《从“限塑”到“禁塑可降解塑料迎黄金发展期》中，较为详细的分析了可降解塑料行业的发展前景，本文将更加深入的寻找其中的投资机会。

大硅片：半导体画布。硅基半导体材料是目前产量最大、应用最广的半 导体材料。目前，全球市场主流的硅片产品是 300mm 和 200mm 直径 的半导体硅片。其中，300mm 主要应用在智能手机、计算机、云计算、 人工智能、SSD（固态存储硬盘）等较为高端领域，出货面积占比 60% 以上。200mm 硅片主要应用在移动通信、汽车电子、物联网、工业电 子等领域，目前出货面积 20%以上。根据制造工艺分类，半导体硅片 主要可以分为抛光片、外延片与以 SOI 硅片，抛光片为主流半导体硅 片。

2020 年 05 月淘系平台化妆品类（美容护肤+彩妆）成交额合计为 206.52 亿元，同比增长 33.95%。其中美容护肤类成交额 147.12 亿 元，同比增长 32.01%；彩妆类成交额 59.40 亿元，同比增长 39.02%。