5 月，食品三大子行业工业增加值增速较上月呈“两 升一降”态势。食品制造业工业增加值同比增长 4.6%，农副食品加 工业增加值同比增长 4.4%，酒、饮料和精制茶制造业工业增加值同 比增长 5.2%。食品工业主要产品中，乳制品产量增长提速，鲜、冷 藏肉产量跌幅进一步收窄，白酒产量出现负增长。行业固定资产投 资增速与 1～4 月相比均有所放缓，其中，酒、饮料和精制茶制造业 固定资产同比增长 3.4%，农副食品加工业固定资产投资同比减少 7.4%，食品制造业固定资产投资同比减少 1.0%。 

The global dietary supplement market (henceforth referred to as market studied) was valued at USD 101.38 billion in 2018 and is expected to attain a value of USD 151.57 billion in 2024, registering a CAGR of 6.9%, during the forecast period (2019-2024). The dietary supplements market is preliminarily driven by the paradigm shift toward preventive health management practices amid rising healthcare costs and increasing burden of lifestyle diseases. • Digitization in retail is expected to boost the future growth of dietary supplements. Moreover, the popularity of herbal supplements is also expected to drive the market growth in the future.

The demand for avocados is increasing globally due to their health benefits as it increases the vision, prevents heart related diseases, and helps in improving digestion. The United States is the largest importer of avocado, holding about 40% of the share of total imports. China is the fastest growing market due to the increasing awareness among the consumers about the health benefits of avocado. The rising price of avocado has attracted new producers and traders to enter the market. For instance, dairy farms in New Zealand have been converted into avocado farms. Governments of the developing countries also encourage the production and export of avocados through various joint programs formed in partnership with other country governments.

The global prebiotic ingredient market was valued at USD 3847.14 million in 2018, and is expected to reach USD 7509.10 million by 2024, registering a CAGR of 12.2%, during the forecast period (2019-2024).Consumers have become increasingly knowledgeable about the importance of dietary fiber in maintaining a healthy digestive system and prefer a diet with increased fiber intake. Prebiotics are driving the digestive health ingredients market, with bakery and cereal products, expected to witness high demand.

Following the collapse of the communism and the centrally planned economy, big international companies entered the Hungarian the food and beverage sector in the 1990s via acquisitions of stateowned firms and greenfield investments. As a result, at present the foreign presence in the sector is relatively high with foreign companies accounting for about half of the production of the sector. The segments that are to a large extent dominated by foreign players are highly concentrated, such as soft drinks and beer. Other segments, such as bakery, pasta, milling and poultry production, are highly fragmented with no dominant players and a large presence of domestic-owned players.

The global algae omega-3 ingredients market is segmented based on the concentration type, application, product type, and geography. By concentration type, the algae omega-3 ingredients market is segmented into high concentrated, low concentrated, and medium concentrated. The algae omega-3 ingredients market, by application, is segmented into food and beverage, dietary supplements, pharmaceuticals clinical nutrition and animal nutrition. By type, it is segmented into eicosapentanoic acid (EPA), docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), and EPA/DHA.

历史上看，食品制造业成长性和宏观经济具有较高相关性，特别是食品制造业营收和利润跟当期物价有较强追随性，食品制造企业收入与食品价格走势基本一致，食品企业利润略滞后于物价变动。物价温和上涨期，食品饮料企业主动或被动的提价，价格易向下游和终端传导，往往是企业收入增长明显、盈利能力改善的很重要时间窗口。而企业在行业中的议价能力，决定了企业盈利改善的空间和时间。

白酒板块Q2 在高基数下难现加速增长，但仍保持平稳增长，其中高端白酒确定性最强，次高端及中档酒因公司具体情况有所差异。食品板块Q2 预计延续Q1增速，调味品受益减税红利，乳业在持续费用投入换得收入高增。投资建议上，白酒建议继续坚守静待估值切换，重点配置高端茅五泸，食品建议以产业视角长期持有市占率不断提升的行业龙头（海天、伊利），关注“有点瑕疵”而估值压制的品种（桃李、榨菜、中炬），静待基本面改善。

基金持仓的集中度持续提升，消费类蓝筹的占比大幅提升。2019 年基金二季报显示，前十大标的占基金股票投资比重为16.55%，较2019 年Q1 提升4.64pct，其中消费类蓝筹标的占七席，占比达11.45%，包括：贵州茅台（2.89%）、五粮液（2.23%）、格力电器（1.59%）、美的集团（1.34%）、伊利股份（1.22%）、泸州老窖（1.18%）、长春高新（0.95 %）。

总结来看，二季度白酒板块再获大幅加配，带动食品饮料板块持仓水平再创历史新高，这背后与基金抱团行为密不可分，我们认为这种抱团的动力来自于两方面：一方面是外界的不确定性，宏观经济增速放缓以及中美谈判未见明确缓和信号；另一方面是自身的确定性，结合我们的业绩展望，二季度白酒核心公司业绩有望保持20%（或以上）的增长，整体增速依然稳健，且三季度由于低基数以及建国70 周年庆典氛围，预计三季度板块仍有不错表现，内资基金抱团行为亦将有望延续。

m贵ar州y]茅 台公布 2019 年中报，2019 上半年实现营业总收入411.7 亿元：同增16.8%，净归母利润199.5 亿元、同增26.6%。其中Q2 收入186.9 亿元，同增10.9%，归母净利润87.3 亿元，同增20.3%。Q2 收入利润表观增速低于预期，发货与现金流情况正常。

白酒方面，建议持续关注品牌力最强、春节旺季销售反馈较强的高端龙头品牌以及渠道下沉优势明显、具有一定消费刚性的中低端品牌，如贵州茅台/五粮液/泸州老窖/古井贡酒。大众消费品方面，板块估值整理提升，涨幅相对较小的乳业龙头已经具备配置价值；调味品板块竞争格局最优、稳健增长能力强，重点关注经营管理机制边际变化的个股及行业龙头；其他建议关注春节动销良好、有自下而上经营改善的卤制品、休闲食品、保健品等细分行业龙头，如中炬高新/海天味业/伊利股份/洽洽食品/绝味食品/汤臣倍健。