2019 年 8 月，中国物流业景气指数为 50.9%，呈现周期性回落，但仍保持在 50%以上。1～8 月，社会物流总额增速稳中趋缓，全国社会物流总额为 188.6 万亿元，按可比价格计算，同比增长 5.8%，增速比 1～7 月回落 0.1 个百分点，比去年同期回落1.1 个百分点。1～8 月份，全国快递服务企业业务量累计完成 383.1亿件，同比增长 26.6%；业务收入累计完成 4621.8 亿元，同比增长24.4%。2019 年 8 月，物流科技领域不少平台获得融资，多集中于A 轮。

Cold chain logistics is a temperature-controlled supply chain that is an uninterrupted chain of distribution and storage activity in which a given temperature is maintained throughout the chain. This type of logistics is used to ensure and extend the life of the goods and products such as seafood, frozen food, agriculture produce, chemicals, photographic film, pharmaceutical drugs, and others. Monitoring, storage, and transportation are the important factors in cold chain to avoid degradation in the quality of the shipments. Cold chain logistics are anticipated to witness significant growth over the years, owing to rise in need of cold chain logistics in the pharmaceutical industry.

With the rapid growth in stock-keeping units (SKUs), wholesalers and distributors are finding it hard to make informed decisions about their operations. This drives the need for the smarter use of labor, equipment, and technology. The main factors driving the need for automated material-handling systems are cost savings, labor efficiency, and space constraints. In the current competitive landscape, there is an ever-increasing number of available products and demand for more frequent and smaller deliveries. Automating distribution operations can immediately increase an organization’s order accuracy, anywhere from half a percent up to several percentage points.

The global dairy products market is identified as a mature market that has grown significantly to cross over $500 billion in revenues in 2018. The market is characterized by intense competition across all its product categories. The significance of this industry stems from the fact that its products are consumed across all age groups. This makes  the industry highly competitive. The range of products in the dairy industry is also an important factor for the packaging industry as the packaging varies according to the product that needs to be packaged. A combination of a slowing economy and intense competition results in margins pressure as value for money is the key in the industry. Regions with low disposable income or slowing economy face packaging challenges such as efficient packaging with lower cost of manufacturing.

New Zealand observed a steep growth in the Logistics Performance Index from 2016, ranking 34, to 2018, ranking 15th, among 163 countries. The growth in the logistics performance index is observed due to the improving customs clearance systems, international shipments, and logistics quality over the previous year. The international shipments have improved due to the increasing ecommerce cross-border volume. Ecommerce is a major contributor to the growth of the logistics industry in the country. Furthermore, the development of technology in the logistics industry has helped it improve the logistics quality, competence, and tracing and tracking abilities.

2019年初以来，沪深300指+30.56%，A股大部分行业板块均出现上涨，其中食品饮料行业涨幅最大，为+76.30%；建筑板块跌幅最大，为-9.36%；交通运输的板块表现在所有行业中位列第16名，接近中位数，+11.53%。在交通运输行业的8个子行业中，机场板块涨幅最大，上涨幅度为+49.09%；仅铁路板块出现下跌，跌幅为4.39%。

板块上推荐快递和公路（推荐中通、韵达、圆通，关注申通；推荐深高速、宁沪、越秀和粤高速），其他子行业精选个股，推荐深国际、建发股份、嘉友国际。

京沪高铁贯穿东部经济发达地区的黄金通道，区位优势保障客运需求。京沪高铁于2008 年4 月18 日正式开工，2011 年6 月30 日全线正式通车，全长1318 公里。京沪高铁途径东部沿海人口密集省区，通过省市总人口占全国的27.32%，GDP 总和占全国的35.2%，连接京沪两大超级枢纽，区位优势显著。我们认为京沪高铁具有低票价高时效的特点，对航空及公路运输有较强替代能力，成长性强

虽然面临全球经济增长放缓的外部不确定性，但航运板块在结构性变化和供给端改善的情况依然存在投资机会，2020 年我们首推油轮。

9 月与10 月，快递行业业务量增速连续两个月下滑，从8 月高点的29.3%下降至10 月的22.7%，其中异地件增速由8 月的40%降至10 月的30%，是行业增速下滑的主因。结合行业的单件收入增速来看，业务量增速下滑主要是通达系价格战缓和的表现，对于快递公司业绩预计将呈现正面影响。

10 月国航、南航国内线客座率转正，料需求环比改善，期待11 月公商务需求进一步向好。Q4 三大航汇兑收益或6 亿~10 亿、民航发展基金减半3 亿左右，成本端改善持续。10 月春秋客座率仍为最优，新航季国际线结构性优化持续。首都机场现金分红比例升至45%，估值优势仍明显，继续推荐。

人类对于太空的向往从未停步。商业航天是采用市场化机制以获取商业利润为首要目标而开展的航天活动。我国商业航天能够破土而出并且快速发展的原因在于：1）政策端的放宽给予了我国商业航天破土而出的机遇。2）我国工业级产品可以应用到航天领域，并且降低了商业航天的成本。3）资本和互联网企业的进场在资金和生产经营理念等方面对商业航天企业给予了帮助。

10 月（10 月 1 日至 10 月31 日）餐饮旅游指数下跌2.07%，同期沪深300 指数上涨1.89%，上证综指上涨0.82%，餐饮旅游板块跑输沪深300 指数3.96 个百分点。 

目前板块整体估值 34 倍，相对万得全 A 估值溢价 102%，低于 2015 年以来均值。细分板块表现分化，化妆品、免税和人文景区领涨。板块持仓和超配比例继续提升，均创 2016 年以来新高。面对宏观经济和外部环境不确定性，建议自上而下优选高景气度&穿越周期品种：免税&化妆品；自下而上精选自身处在开店扩张周期的火锅龙头，以及低估值、周期成长属性、具备长期投资价值的酒店龙头。 

国内航线方面：10 月份上市公司的运力投放总量同比增长6.6%；除春秋外，其他五家公司单月的运力增速都低于1-10 月的累计增速，整体运力投放较为克制。然而，虽然多个航司连续几个月下调运力供给增速，但对客座率的提振效果却比较有限，今年国庆北京枢纽的情况较为特殊（大阅兵）也使得10 月黄金周的需求受到一定的抑制。

近年来，由于社会经济结构和政策的改变，我国货物运输市场结构发生较大变化，铁路货物运输所占市场份额持续下降，面临严峻的市场经济考验。为抢占更多市场份额，优化当前铁路快捷货运产品，提供适应性强的新产品，将是今后铁路部门物流化改革、提升市场占有率的新利器。以中国铁路北京局集团有限公司快捷货物运输现状为例，从流程优化、服务提升、组织完善、信息化改革等方面对快捷货运产品进行优化设计，建立仓储物流中心，搭建智慧物流平台，构建信息化快捷物流网络，实现铁路物流产品的升级优化，使铁路快捷货运产品更具竞争性、更贴合市场需求。