The wood, paper and furniture industry is one of the key sectors of the Polish economy, its combined gross value added stood at PLN 37.57bn in 2016, which represented 2% of the GDP. The gross output of the three sub-sectors stood for around 6.5% of the country’s GDP in 2016. In the same year, it also accounted for 12.5% of employment in manufacturing and 2.5% of total employment in the Polish economy. The industry, supplied with wood by the forestry and logging sector, itself has three subsectors, which we shall refer to as “wood & wood products” (see p.9 for a more detailed definition), “paper & paper products”, and “furniture production”. Their joint share in Poland's total exports in 2017 was 10.8% in 2017. The most important subsector in terms of exports is furniture: Poland had a 5% share in global furniture exports in 2016 (and is the world's sixth-biggest furniture maker). Poland is also the EU’s seventh-biggest paper producer.

2018 年上半年造纸板块营收同比增长 23.03%，归母净利润同比增长33.30%。总体来看，造纸板块收入端仍维持较高增长，主要受益于纸价处于相对高位及龙头纸企新增产能陆续投产；利润端增速中枢有所下滑，但仍维持较高增长水平，成本优势成为纸企盈利水平的重要方面。 

根据我们 7 月 8 日发布的第 10 期周报中的业绩前瞻，对比我们的业绩预测跟实际业绩情况，多数公司符合预期，分行业来看：（1）造纸行业太阳纸业、山鹰纸业、华泰股份、中顺洁柔等基本符合预期，未来我们依旧看好造纸龙头企业在造纸 2.0 中原材料推涨带来的行业景气下的持续增长。（2）印刷包装行业、其他轻工行业龙头公司劲嘉股份、合兴包装、晨光文具略超预期。主要原因在于包装龙头“大包装”战略下多业务、多品类拓展顺利，文具龙头传统文具、新业务线、新渠道全面开花。（3）家居行业略低于市场预期，主要系房地产行业景气度下降、行业竞争加剧、门店扩张增速放缓、精装房、整装公司的冲击等。未来我们关注前端导流能力强、终端运营效率高的公司。

我们认为相较 2016 年起由供给侧改革导致的纸价上行而言，本轮成本支持下的纸价高企效应正边际减弱。分纸种看，文化纸和包装纸核心威胁分别来自需求下行和新增产能投放加速。另一方面，资源禀赋优势将成为造纸企业核心竞争优势来源。浆成本控制能力和外废配额获取能力分别是文化纸和包装纸超额利润的核心来源。建议关注文化纸龙头太阳纸业，箱板瓦楞纸龙头山鹰纸业。

A 股轻工板块（申万分类）123 家企业 2018 年上半年共实现营收 2331 亿元，同比增长 22%，实现归母净利润 173 亿元，同比增长 12%，收入与利润增速均有小幅放缓。我们建议沿两条主线布局家居细分龙头，造纸板块长期看好龙头，包装看好基本面边际改善行情。