In the first half of 2017, Brazil’s economy reached a turning point, exiting from the deepest recession in decades. The economy was supported by a record-high agricultural harvest and an uptick in consumption, as a result of lower inflationary pressures, decreasing borrowing costs and positive sentiments over the adopted government reforms. Based on these fundamentals, in October 2017, the IMF raised its growth estimates for Brazil’s economy from 0.3% to 0.75% in 2017, and from 1.3% to 1.5% in 2018. The institution defended the government drive towards fiscal sustainability, including the adopted public spending cap in December 2016 and the ongoing pension reform, as key measures for the recovery of confidence and private sector investment. Nevertheless, economic growth is projected to remain subdued in the medium term, at about 2% per year through 2022, mainly due to the recent rise in political instability that poses risks to the government’s reform agenda. New corruption investigations surrounding top government officials coupled with the upcoming general elections in October 2018, are rapidly closing the window for legislative action. Notably, reforms of the pension system, public healthcare, tax code, and infrastructure concessions regime are seen as essential to support macroeconomic stability, secure confidence and bring the economy back to its potential.

房产税是每年两会的热点，市场上很多人担心推行“房产税”会对房价产生负面作用，但情况果真如此吗？从历史经验来看，无论是美国、日本、香港还是 2011 年进行房产税试点的上海、重庆，房产税对房价抑制效果均不显著。尽管有上述历史宏观经验作为依据，但我们仍希望从更微观层面深入地研究房产税对房价的影响。为此，我们引入 MAS 即多智能体系统(multi-agent system,一种全新的分布式计算方法，运用于现代行为金融学研究中)，来对征收房产税以后的市场房价变化进行模拟演绎。

我们认为以前随着移动互联网的发展，线上流量源源不断，很多互联网公司凭借较低的线上获客成本快速成长起来；现在我们观察到移动互联网的渗透率基本见顶，流量红利渐渐消失。

互联网公司细分行业多且同一细分领域的上市公司数量又较少，估值时寻找可对比公司可能比较困难；由于互联网行业公司大多是轻资产公司，所以估值方法一般看盈利，而少用资产来衡量估值。