4 月，国际航运市场整体处于低位，国内新船订单量 降幅持续收窄，累计新接订单量达到 949 万载重吨，同比下降 47.3%； 供给方面，造船完工量继续增长，涨幅较上月有所扩大；手持订单 量环比有所增加，同比降幅呈收窄态势；新造船价格继续微跌，干 散货船和集装箱船价均有下滑；出口需求保持上涨，出口额同比降 幅继续小幅收窄；行业绩效水平保持增长，利润涨幅显著。 

Expanding rail network and increasing demand for passenger and freight transportation are driving the demand for the bogie, couplers, and body manufacturing across the emerging and maturedmarkets. The shift in trend toward deploying diesel electric multiple units and electric multiple units from conventional diesel locomotives in the emerging markets has urged the manufacturers to expand their production bases, in order to benefit from import taxes and attain supply chain optimization, thereby, extending their support to promote the in-house manufacturing agenda of the developing countries. The costs of manufacturing the braking and suspension system of the bogie capture significant share of the bogie assembly production. Companies, like Knorr-Bremse, Akebono Brake Industry, Federal Mogul, etc., have been offering braking components to rolling stock across major countries.

2019 年 7 月 1 日晚，南北船集团旗下上市公司均公告：接到中船工业集团或者中船重工集团通知，南北船集团正在筹划战略性重组，有关方案尚未确定，方案亦需获得相关主管部门批准。 

2019 年上半年，国防军工指数累计上涨16.92%，跑输沪深300 指数，在中信29个子行业中排名12 位。子板块方面，船舶涨幅最大，达到20.38%。板块估值56X，低于行业历史中位数。2019Q1 基金重仓持股比例为2.63%，较2018Q4 略微下降。

军工MLCC 上市企业商业模式为自产自销+代理销售，市场空间广。自产自销端以军品为主，随单品电子化程度提升叠加信息化装备在各兵种推广加大，处于军品供应链最前端环节的军工MLCC 企业有望领先受益；代理业务端主要销售民品，成长性>周期性，5G+汽车电子化等持续推进亦有望拉升代理端收入规模。但相关上市企业多为授权式经营，新兴领域发展初期日系厂商等多直接参与下游客户研制，后期随标准程度提升及行业技术不断革新，代理厂商或将逐步迎来业绩快速增长期。