在多重原因叠加作用下，交通运输“公转铁”式结构调整已经不可逆转，但身在其中的公、铁物流企业乃至工矿企业却要面临产业转型，深受政策之惠的铁路总公司也面临着变革的挑战。

从国家发改委等部门，以及多地政府了解到，央地将进一步加大推动实体经济发展的力度，除了将大力推进实体经济支持政策的落实外，还有一批新的支持政策将密集出台。

发展态势现在很好，市场规模在快速发展，2014年中国电子商务网络购物交易总规模是2.8万亿，增长48.7%，这么高速的增长在任何一个业态里是没有的。网购的渗透率去年年度突破10%，这比美国的比例高得多。

Road continues to be the largest freight mode in India, accounting for around 86.0% of the freight mix. The Indian road network is the second largest in the world, behind the US and ahead of China, and its rail network is the fourth largest in the world. In order to maintain such huge networks, investment is much-needed and various projects are in the pipeline to improve road and rail networks and upgrade air and port infrastructure, all of which will boost the freight industry.

Road freight is the dominant mode in the Namibian freight mix and will remain so well beyond our forecast period. This mode benefits from the highest level of transport infrastructure, not only in Namibia, but in the region, ranking an impressive 31st in the World Economic Forum's 2017-2018 Global Competitiveness Report. Road freight will account for 97.9% of all freight handled within the country in 2018, and we see little scope for this changing over the forecast period.

Road freight will continue as the overwhelmingly dominant freight mode in Thailand over the medium term, accounting for 87.89% of the overall freight mix by the end of 2022. Inland waterways will be the second-most utilised freight mode in Thailand across the medium term, accounting for 9.39% of the total freight mix in 2022. Rail freight is also important, particularly for the country's heavy industries, but infrastructure capacity limitations mean that rail usage only accounts for just over 2.0% of the total freight mix. Air freight’s proportion will remain negligible over the forecast period. A relaxation of rules and regulations relating to exports from Thailand should improve the ease of trade in Thailand, which should translate into smoother logistics processes in the country going forward.

Road freight like in many countries is the dominant freight mode in Panama and will continue to be so in 2018 and over the the course of our forecast period ending 2022. Strong canal usage will support and bolster all freight modes. Road freight has been steadily increasing its influence in Panama, rising from a 95.5% share in 2011 to a 96.6% share in 2018. Air freight and rail have shrunk, but that has not diminished their importance. The low fuel costs and flexibility offered by road have contributed to the speed and cost benefits of this form of transport, while lack of investment in the railways further weakened the rail stronghold.

Historically, road freight has always dominated the freight sector. Rail freight has been important, although it has historically only accounted for just below 20% of the freight mix. The importance comes from a combination of the country's geography, the economic importance of commodity production and heavy industry in Russia, as well as by the limitations of other transportation networks. Russia is characterised by significant distances both between population centres and between suppliers of raw materials and their intermediate or end customers, which naturally benefits the development of rail freight. Russia's road freight is the fifth longest in the world after the US, India, China and Brazil. Historically, road network development has been of minor importance for the government. Little has changed in the freight mix over the past decade. Only road freight has increased its share slightly on the back of growing consumer purchasing power, whereas the other modes have remained unchanged.

The return to growth for Saudi Arabia’s all-important oil sector coupled with a strengthening of non-oil activity will ease the country out of recession over the course of 2018, underpinning a positive performance for the kingdom’s freight industry. The ongoing economic diversification efforts to reorient the economy towards non-hydrocarbons and high capital investments supporting construction and infrastructure development will maintain the relatively steady growth across the freight modes between 2018 and 2022.

外卖催生、新零售驱动，即时配送发展迅猛：即时配送是应O2O 而生的物流产物，是用户通过网上平台下单，平台安排线下配送的一种新兴的物流形式。即时配送的货物不经过仓储和中转，直接是端到端的送达服务。回顾即时配送的兴起和发展，我们认为，首先是外卖催生了即时配送，新零售的提出又对即时配送的发展起到了良好的推动作用，未来随着外卖和新零售的发展，即时配送市场将有很大发展。

社服板块作为朝阳行业的代表，仍然保持较高速的增长。①行业数据：除了酒店受到差旅因素影响，增速略放缓外，其他行业仍然保持了正常增速，出境游+15%，年免税行业提速，北京上海和三亚免税营收增长 30+%。②公司数据：2018 年上半年社服板块表现强劲，超过50%的公司收入增速高于 10%，其中腾邦国际收入增速 82%，中国国旅收入增速 68%；三分之一的公司归母利润超 40%，其中新智认知归母利润增速达 55%，中国国旅归母利润增速 48%。

我们策略的出发点始终立于去寻找在未来更加激烈、开放的竞争环境中，如何能够尽可能摆脱波动性，（逐步）展现自身盈利稳定性、持续性以及确定性的公司，从而穿越宏观周期。历经三个季度的完善，我们从寻找核心资源具备议价权到寻找周期中的消费再到：进一步提出：护城河将推动企业从优秀走向卓越。我们认为护城河的分类：品牌带来溢价；网络推动延展；区位造就“垄断”。结合行业成长性以及消费属性，选择具备护城河的行业与公司：航空公司、机场、顺丰控股。

三季度VLCC运价已经出现回暖迹象。8月集运市场跟踪。8月国际干散货市场跟踪。

维持汽车行业“增持”评级。当前汽车行业的主要研究方法为跟踪短期量价数据，但对长期的需求和现金流预期的把握存在偏差，以及对整车公司的综合竞争力研究明显不足，我们基于对日本汽车产业发展的研究，认为目前市场忽视了中国整车公司核心竞争力的持续上升，我们从三维竞争力（整合集成能力、供应体系水平、关键零件技术）视角建议增持中国寡头整车公司。1975 年至1990 年，日本车企丰田和本田股价累计涨幅达498%和302%，背后是竞争优势（产品优势）的不断催化，其价值源自核心竞争力。

上半年主要快递企业增速持续超过行业增速使得行业集中度不断提升；7、8 月除顺丰业务量增速与行业持平外，其余上市快递企业业务量增速均超行业 10 个百分点以上，集中度提升进程加速，行业由规模化向集中化阶段整合。市场份额向龙头企业集中、前 8 大企业内部分化加剧的过程中价格战有抬头迹象。8 月行业均价同比下降 3.8%，创今年以来单月最大降幅。

国内两大游乐设施代表企业中山金马、文旅科近期将分别通过直接、间接方式登陆 A 股。2017 年我国游乐设施行业收入估计在 240 亿人民币以上，根据美国经验，游乐设施行业在成熟阶段仍然能保持大个位数可观增长。展望未来，高科技游乐设施是国内主题公园的发展方向。我们认为，中山金马在上市后有望在保持机械式游乐设施领域优势地位的同时，借助资本市场快速向高科技设施赛道切换；而文旅科技在曲线上市后有望借助资本平台获得发展新动力。本周继续重点推荐免税行业巨头中国国旅，酒店行业龙头首旅酒店、锦江股份，景区板块演艺龙头宋城演艺、海洋公园龙头海昌海洋公园、休闲景区稀缺标的中青旅，餐饮板块食品及餐饮双主业驱动的广州酒家，其他自然景区股建议关注黄山旅游、峨眉山 A、三特索道、桂林旅游、丽江旅游、天目湖等。 

易观千帆“A3” 算法升级说明：易观千帆“A3”算法引入了机器学习的方法，使易观千帆的数据更加准确地还原用户的真实行为、更加客观地评价产品的价值。整个算法的升级涉及到数据采集、清洗、计算的全过程：1、采集端：升级SDK以适应安卓7.0以上操作系统的开放API；通过机器学习算法，升级“非用户主观行为”的过滤算法，在更准确识别的同时，避免 “误杀”。2、数据处理端：通过机器学习算法，实现用户碎片行为的补全算法、升级设备唯一性识别算法、增加异常设备行为过滤算法等。3、算法模型：引入外部数据源结合易观自有数据形成混合数据源，训练Ai算法机器人，部分指标的算法也进行了调整。