2016 年食品饮料大年判断基于三个方面，一方面业绩兑现能力是2014 年以来最好，另一方面是通胀抬头对食品饮料板块的正面影响，三是市场因素，低关注度，低预期，低持仓，叠加以及业绩兑现能力强“三低一强”，板块强势表现在情理之中，全年关注业绩驱动的板块行情。

伴随市场风险偏好下移，高安全边际和高景气度标的倍受青睐。我们认为，轻工板块最大的投资价值便在于“大行业、小公司”的特点，因而，我们将重点关注质地优秀的成长股。当前时点，从追求绝对收益的维度，重点推荐低估值、高景气度的三只标的：骅威文化、宜华生活、广博股份。

食品饮料行业在2004-2006、2008-2011 和2015-2016 期间存在较为明显的超额收益。从基本面来看，在食品饮料行业具有超额收益的期间，食品饮料行业利润增速高于市场平均。从估值来看，食品饮料行业的估值溢价与整个A 股市场的估值水平存在负相关，即整体市场估值水平上升时，食品饮料的估值溢价下降，而整体市场估值水平下滑时，食品饮料的估值溢价上升。

《婴幼儿配方乳粉产品配方注册管理办法》发布。CFDA 发布了《婴幼儿配方乳粉产品配方注册管理办法》，2016 年10 月1 日起正式实施。新注册管理办法对国内生产销售和进口的婴幼儿奶粉配方实行统一注册管理，要求每个企业原则上不得超过3 个配方系列9 种产品配方，在标签、标识上更加规范和严格等。新的配方管理办法有助于规范婴幼儿配方奶粉市场，提高行业进入门槛，同时淘汰行业内缺乏竞争力小企业，有助于龙头品牌公司的集中度提升和品牌力的提升，我们持续推荐乳制品板块，建议继续积极关注龙头个股。

经过本轮行业调整，全国2.1 万家白酒企业经营状况已明显分化，前100家已进入相对复苏期，而后2.09 万家企业经营困难，行业向品牌集中势不可挡。

年轻人群、女性白领消费力处在上升趋势。年轻人群消费成长空间较大，主要原因有以下几点：独生子女增多，拥有父母双方资源；父母出生于60、70年代，有一定经济积累；出身于和平年代，安全感相对较高，储蓄率低；受教育年限增加，偏向于工资更高的白领，结婚生育年龄滞后，更愿意为自我消费。随女性教育程度提升、服务性工种增多，家庭主妇角色正逐步向社会工作者转变，中国女性白领消费力正在迅速增加。据OECD 统计，中国2014年女性就业率达到70%，女性对家庭经济的贡献提升显著。经济话语权增加，女性消费力正在迅猛提升。

2012年反腐和严厉打击三公消费以来，2013年开始，酒水显著回归大众需求和理性消费，流通环节利润首当其冲被大幅挤压，流通效率较低的经销商、餐饮店、个体烟酒店等传统渠道迅速衰减。

In 2013, the US dominated the global hot drinks market with a share of approximately 14.5%. Hot drinks consumption in the country has predominantly been inclined toward coffee. Lately, however, tea consumption is gaining precedence over coffee. During the forecast period, the hot drinks market in the US is expected to grow at a moderate rate both in terms of revenue and volume. By revenue, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.68%, whereas by volume it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.53%. In terms of products, the coffee market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.51% by revenue. Tea, on the other hand, isexpected to post a higher growth rate of 2.55%. The other hot drinks segment is expected to post a CAGR of 1.64%.

Coconut water is the clear liquid extracted from unripe (green) coconuts. It is technically a fruit juice and is most popular in tropical countries. In many countries such as India, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, the juice is commonly sold fresh by street vendors. A tender coconut is one which is 6-8 months old. Packaged coconut water is prepared by extracting liquid from selected tender, fresh coconuts; putting that liquid through special processes; and then packaging it in food-grade cans, PET bottles, or cartons. Coconut water is the perfect natural energy drink, as it has numerous health benefits. It is rich in electrolytes essential for the human body. The common electrolytes found in it are

Beer is the most commonly consumed alcoholic beverage. APAC has become one of the major consumers of beer worldwide. China and India are currently the two highest consumers of the beverage in APAC. Growing disposable income has led to people spending more on non-essential items and the growing affinity toward Western lifestyles has resulted in more people visiting bars and pubs, resulting in a greater consumption of beer. The introduction of premium products and their strategic marketing have also given considerable traction to market growth. The growing demand for craft beers is leading to an increase in the number of microbreweries in the region, and is likely to bode well for the market in the next five years.

Coffee is a caffeine drink, which is brewed from roasted coffee beans. It is cultivated in 70 countries mostly in regions of the Americas, Africa, India, and Southeast Asia. The two most common grown crops are Arabica and Robusta. Coffee is one of the most popular drinks in the world and is one of the primary exported commodities. Coffee is an essential part of the Brazilian history. The French bought Brazilian coffee in the early 18th century. Cultivation of coffee started in the north of Brazil, which then spread throughout the country. By 1820, coffee became the most exported product in Brazil. This put Brazilian coffee at the top position in the coffee market. Currently, Brazil is the largest coffee exporter in the world.