Rising prevalence of stroke, increasing adoption of exoskeleton, and growing geriatric population at the global level are some of the key factors anticipated to influence the market growth over the forecast period. Moreover, growing usage of exoskeleton in the healthcare industry is anticipated to drive its global market over the forecast period. In addition, with the increasing number of disabled people, there has been an increase in the demand for robotic rehabilitation around the world. The role of technology in healthcare has become evident with the enhanced rate of survival from medical disorders, such as stroke. Robotic rehabilitation and assistive technologies, therefore, promise to ease stress on the physiotherapy staff and control expenseswhile refining patients’ quality of life. Mobile exoskeletons are anticipated to witness significant growth as they can be worn outside or in a person’s home. They are also found supporting the powered hip and knee motion to enable individuals with spinal cord injuries to stand and walk. On the other hand, the cost of exoskeleton is generally found to be high and is not affordable by most people in need. However, there aremany efforts taking place in order to reduce these prices by developing cheaper components so that the technology becomemore accessible for people.

The growth of the extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) system market can be contributed to the growing cardiovascular and respiratory disease burden, rising adoption of ECMO as a bridge to lung transplantation, growing number of ECMO centers, conferences, and training programs to increase awareness, and increasing technological advancements. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death across the world. Approximately 17.9 million people died due to cardiovascular diseases globally in 2016, and it accounted for almost 31%of all the deathsworldwide. In addition, the rising geriatric population and the increasing number of people suffering from diseases in populous countries, such as India and China, are the factors that are expected to offer significant growth opportunities for ECMO systems. Furthermore, the rising popularity of ECMO, due to its increasing applications and the upcoming new advancements in the products, is expected to act as a key contributor in the market’s growth. According to the study of Cureus, the ECMO therapy is observed to be a quite efficient technique in patients suffering from cardiogenic shock and cardiac arrest. It is a preferred therapy and the outcomes are found to be effective in cases of pulmonary embolismand pulmonary hypertension.

Dermatological therapeutics market is being driven by the increase in incidence rates of dermatology diseases, increase in awareness levels of disease progression and etiology and increase in the elderly population. According to the WHO, skin diseases in developing countries has become a serious impact on people’s quality of life, causing productivity lost at work and other places, and discrimination due to disfigurement. Skin changes may also indicate the presence of more serious skin disorders that require treatment. According to theWorld Allergy Organization 2018 fact sheet, globally between 5-30% of the pediatric and 1- 10% of the adult population have atopic dermatitis. According to World Population Prospects 2019 report (United Nations, 2019), there were about 703 million people aged 65 years or over in the world in 2019. The number of elderly population is projected to double to 1.5 billion in 2050. Worldwide, the share of the population aged 65 years or over increased from 6% in 1990 to 9% in 2019.Moreover, by 2050, 1 in 6 people in the world will be over the age of 65, up from 1 in 11 in 2019. As the number of elderly population is expected to grow worldwide and this population are more prone to dermatological disorders which drives the market in near future.

多联苗：四联苗、五联苗保持快速增长，2020年1-7月，康泰生物四联苗批签发数量为367万支（+78%）；赛诺菲巴斯德五联苗批签发量为439万支（+59%）。三联苗由于药品注册文号失效，2019年7月后无批签发数据。

本周上证综指上涨1.33%，报3354.04 点，中小板上涨0.09%,报9095.93 点，创业板下跌1.63%，报2749.95点。医药生物同比下跌0.68%，报12876.04 点，表现弱于上证2.01 个pp，弱于中小板0.77 个pp，强于创业板0.94 个pp。全部A 股估值为14.83 倍，医药生物估值为61.27 倍，对全部A 股溢价率为313.05%，处于历史较高水平。

本周医药行业下降 0.68%，创业板下降 1.63%，前期涨幅较高的疫苗股、疫 情股调整较为明显。如智飞生物、三鑫医疗、康华生物、南卫股份、尚荣医 疗、金域医学、振德医疗等。疫情相关个股需要有业绩坚实支撑，需要考虑 业绩的长久性，以及政策定价的风险。

投资建议：2020年1-7月多数品种实现批签发量稳健增长。新兴事件过后，监管趋严，同时今年疫情导致上半年采浆减少，下半年供给有望趋紧，中长期来看，集中度有望提升，整体未来发展值得看好。 7月多数品种批签发量有所下滑。 重点推荐华兰生物、双林生物、卫光生物、天坛生物等，建议关注博雅生物。

疫情仍在全球蔓延，国内控制较好，日新增确诊有所回落。新冠疫苗研发、产能建设消息不时激发民众热情，首个灭活疫苗Ⅰ/Ⅱ期临床结果显示该疫苗具有良好的免疫原性。因此，疫情起伏之下的疫苗及其产业链仍然是人气之星，鉴于相关产品将在疫苗上市后给研发企业业绩带来较大弹性，推荐关注疫苗研发及产业链相关公司。

在经历了多年的沉寂后，随着 2018 年 FDA 对于 siRNA 药物 Patisiran 的批 准上市，小核酸药物迎来了发展的新纪元。RNA 药物的特点在于它们可 以直接与 mRNA 结合并造成其降解，从而防止致病蛋白质被转录，可用 于治疗 Kras 等传统小分子、单抗认为难以成药的突变，且易于工业化放 大生产。值得注意的是，小核酸药物在研发成功率上达到了突破性的变 革，以 siRNA 领域领先的公司 Alnylam 为例，Alnylam 公司的研发项目从 1 期临床进展到 3 期临床试验结果积极的成功率达到 54.6%，一旦克服毒 副作用和递送手段方面的挑战，成功开发 RNAi 疗法的药物反而会变得 相对简单。

当前处在中报密集披露窗口期，业绩将成为下阶段主线。中短期来看，建议关注中报业 绩高增速、下半年业绩强持续性的公司；中长期来看，我们持续关注高景气度、高成长 性的优质赛道。此外，医药板块本周回调明显，尤其是前期涨幅最大的生物疫苗板块本 周出现快速回调，因此建议关注具有估值性价比、安全边际较高的子行业。

截至 7 月 31 日，WHO 官网上已经备案了 165 个正在研发的新冠肺炎 疫苗，其中有 26 项已进入临床阶段。已有多家研发企业发表了新冠疫 苗临床试验论文，包括国药集团中国生物、康希诺、阿斯利康、莫德 纳、辉瑞和 Novavax。从结果来看，受试者在接种几款疫苗后均产生 了较好的免疫应答。在接种重组蛋白和 RNA 疫苗后，受试者体内产 生的抗病毒中和抗体水平超过康复者血浆中抗体水平的 4 倍，展现较 好的保护潜力。国药集团研发的灭活苗以及康希诺研发的腺病毒疫苗 未能使全部受试者产生中和抗体。此外，结果显示，在接种疫苗的 3 个月内，受试者体内的中和抗体水平出现下降。但抗体水平下降不意 味着失去保护作用，具体时效仍然需要更多的临床数据验证。

近期行情：自 8月 3 日至 8月 7 日的交易周内，恒生指数下跌 0.26%；恒生中国企业指数上涨0.23%；恒生医疗保健指数上涨0.97%。

自 8 月 10 日至 8 月 14 日的交易周内，恒生指数上涨 2.85%；恒 生中国企业指数上涨 1.80%；恒生医疗保健指数下跌 4.44%。

疫情管控常态化下，部分公司2020 二季度业绩表现强劲，看好受益于疫情保持快速增长的子板块以及受疫情影响但二季度快速恢复、长期趋势明确的子板块。

2020 年 7 月，中检所共批签发疫苗 5,605.21 万瓶，同比增长 18.24%。2020 年 1-7 月，累计批签发疫苗 33,599.76 万瓶，同比增长 21.48%。

重申长期检测与社交隔离的必要性。新冠病毒的传播规律类似季节性爆发的大流感，会随着免疫力的持续时间呈现周期性循环爆发。在疫苗成功研发之前，新冠病毒的流行可能会长期持续，且新冠肺炎与季节性流感传播期重合，目前全民筛查与严格实施隔离政策可实现有效疫情防控，除非重症监护能力大幅提高，或者特效药、疫苗成功上市后，才可考虑放松防疫措施。

本周上证综指上涨 0.18%，报 3360.1 点，中小板下跌 0.78%,报 9024.89 点，创业板下跌 2.95%，报 2668.71 点。医药生物同比下跌 5.44%，报 12175.98 点，表现弱于上证 5.62 个 pp，弱于中小板 4.66 个 pp， 弱于创业板 2.48 个 pp。全部 A 股估值为 14.88 倍，医药生物估值为 58.03 倍，对全部 A 股溢价率为 289.9%，处于历史较高水平。

2020年7月，国务院办公厅发布《治理高值医用耗材改革方案》，提出“对于临床用量较大、 采购金额较高、临床使用较成熟、多家企业生产的高值医用耗材，按类别探索集中采购，鼓励医疗机构联合开展带量谈判采 购，积极探索跨省联盟采购”，同时相关部门要求综合试点省份要在2020年探索高值耗材带量采购。截止目前已有多个平台 推进。

上周医药生物行业指数下跌 5.44%，跑输沪深 300 指数 5.37 个百分 点。细分板块中，跌幅最小的是医疗服务板块（-3.24%），跌幅最大的 是生物制品板块（-9.27%）。较上周绝对估值和估值溢价率均有所下降。 近期医药板块持续回调，但从整体宏观环境来看，目前国内疫情仍然存 在散点式爆发的情况，医药行业仍然具备相对确定性。