In 2017, Brazil’s economy reached a turning point, exiting from the deepest recession in decades. During the year, the economy grew by 1% y/y, supported by a record high agricultural harvest and an uptick in consumption, as a result of lower inflationary pressures, decreasing borrowing costs and positive sentiments over government reforms. Based on these fundamentals, in April 2018 the IMF raised its growth estimates for Brazil’s economy from 1.9% to 2.3% for 2018, expecting stronger private consumption and investment. The institution defended the government drive towards fiscal sustainability – including the adopted public spending cap at end-2016 and labour market reform in November 2017 – as key measures for the recovery of confidence and private sector investment. Nevertheless, economic growth is projected to remain subdued in the medium-term, at about 2.2% per year through 2022, weighed down by an ageing population, stagnant productivity and high uncertainty regarding the implementation of the government’s reform agenda. Mounting corruption investigations surrounding top government officials, coupled with the upcoming General Elections in October 2018, are rapidly closing the window for legislative action. Notably, reforms of the pension system, public healthcare and tax code are seen as essential to support macroeconomic stability, secure confidence and help the economy achieve its potential.

After 17 straight profitable quarters, airlines based in the United States can be expected to keep the winning streak going in 2018 and beyond. Even as the industry’s two largest operating costs – fuel and labor – edge up, a combination of persistent demand for air travel that’s outpacing the overall economic growth and newfound discipline on adding capacity is keeping network and value carriers in the black. A return to growth in passenger yield – the measure of the average fare paid per mile per passenger – is an example of the industry’s enduring strength. After years in decline, year-over-year yield rose 2.3 percent in second quarter 2017, driven primarily by network carriers’ capacity restraint. Passenger yield fell 13.4 percent from 2014 through 2016, hitting a year-over-year quarterly low in third quarter 2016 of 13.4 cents. The systemwide yield by second quarter 2017 was 13.9 cents.

中国财险是国内最大也是亚洲最大的财险公司，2017年保费收入3503亿元，市占率33.1%。2018Q1保费同比增长19.8%，高于行业增速，市占率提升至34.3%，较2017年提升1.2个百分点。母公司中国人保业务包括财险、寿险、健康险等，在香港上市并已过会拟回归A股。

宽口径地方政府信用类债务解构：地方政府债券16 万亿，融资平台债务29.5 万亿。按主体看，（1）地方政府：地方政府债券余额16 万亿，其中一般债券和专项债券分别为10 万亿/6 万亿，主要为银行表内资金所持有；（2）融资平台：有息负债29.5 万亿，其中：①城投债7 万亿，测算银行自营、理财、委外投资分别持有1.5/2.6/0.9 万亿；②预计贷款13.9-14.3 万亿，均为银行表内持有；③非标融资8.2-8.6 万亿，其中银行通过各类通道持有敞口约5.8 万亿。由于地方政府债纳入预算管理，下文主要分析被称为隐性债务的融资平台债务情况。

大资管新规落地，统一监管大幕拉开，行业回归代客理财本源，打破刚性兑付、推动净值化转型背景下，我们预计理财产品收益率下行，保险产品更具吸引力。保险资管早已从多维度进行了政策上的规范，风险控制到位，行业已步入良性发展周期。我们对板块维持“增持”评级，推荐新华、平安、太保。

MPA 考核不是影响信贷投放主因。部分城商行、农商行当前广义信贷增速下对应的宏观审慎资本充足率超标实际资本充足率；未超标银行信贷增速远低于资本充足率可