2012 年以前茅台零售价格同比、CPI 同比以及 PPI 同比走势基本同向，而从 2012 年开始，茅台价格与 PPI 都陷入深跌，而 CPI 同比仍然维持在 2%左右的稳定水平， 2011 年以后茅台价格与 CPI 走势脱轨。2016 年起茅台零售价格开启反弹，与此同时可以看到的是 PPI 增速从 2015 年的-5.2%上升至 2016 年的-1.4%。2017 年以来，茅台零售价格势如破竹，今年 2 月PPI 也走出 7.3%的强劲反弹。从始至终，PPI 与茅台价格的相关性都很高，表明茅台价格一直体现出明显的商品属性，可以说资产价格走势对茅台价 格的影响是占主导的，保值与投资拉动的商务需求茅台涨价的真正推手。

Packaging machinery is used to package products before they are dispatched to distribution networks and for storage. Packaging machinery are used in the primary and secondary packaging of food, beverage, and pharmaceutical and personal care products. Primary packaging is an important part of the marketing mix as it has a strong impact on the buying decision. In addition, packaging machinery is widely used for filling, labeling, coding, and wrapping products.

Technavio estimates that the PET plastic packaging market by thermoformed process will post a CAGR of 4.55% during the forecast period. The growth is mainly driven by the growing demand from end-users, including the food and beverage sector.North America is the dominant player in the market, and the region accounted for a share of 48% in 2015. This is mainly because of the presence of large plastic packaging companies such as Pactiv LLC, Sonoco Plastics, Berry Plastics, and Winpak. The average sales of thermoformed packaged products per company was $50.5 million in 2015.The thermoformed plastic packaging market in Europe is estimated to post a CAGR of 4.31% during the forecast period. The growth of the plastic sheet market in Europe is the major reason for the growth of the thermoformed packaging market in Europe. The plastic sheet market in Europe was valued at $393 billion in 2015 and is expected to post a CAGR of 1.2% during the forecast period.There is a growing demand for thermoformed packaging for food products from food manufacturers, as this packaging helps eliminate the waste material by 35%-40%. The amount of raw material that goes into the making of this packages is reduced by almost 50%. In addition, smaller packages cut down the shipping costs by 35%.

Flavors and fragrances mainly comprise a class of compounds such as esters, alcohol, acids, lactones, aldehydes, and ketones. These are derived from natural and synthetic compounds and are used to enhance the appeal of consumer goods, and food products and beverages. The global flavors and fragrances market includes flavor blends, fragrance blends, essential oils, and aroma chemicals. The formulation of flavors and fragrances involves mixing and blending of different ingredients.

The popularity of sparkling water in Asian economies and the availability of product and flavor variants have contributed to market growth. Sparkling water has garnered attention because it is thought to have numerous health benefits and has no artificial sugar content.Soft drinks, carbonated drinks, ready-to-drink (RTD) tea, and coffee are substitutes in the global sparkling water market. Furthermore, fruit juices are other alternatives.Although not of a similar category, they do pose some threat to the global sparkling water market.Sparkling water in 250-ml and tin formats will be key to the growth of the market during the forecast period as they are small, easy to carry, and the most convenient form of consumption.Hypermarkets and supermarkets will continue to be the most preferred destinations globally for the purchase of sparkling water. This is because these retail formats are large in size and can allocate more shelf space to house more products of different brands than other retail formats. Attractive offers and discounts provided by these stores will continue to attract more consumers during the forecast period.

投资建议：节后三个交易日，雄安主题板块发酵，食品饮料板块相对平淡，跑输大盘 1.5 个百分点。4 月进入年报及一季报披露期，从我们跟踪的情况看，认为一季报多数白酒公 司业绩将符合预期，同时我们认为市场目前尚未将年初以来以及全年的提价幅度充分反映 在 18-19 年的预测当中，一季报后部分白酒公司的预测或存在向上修正可能；在原材料、 包材、运费等成本上涨情况下，对多数食品公司季报保持谨慎。我们全年的观点及推荐标 的本周保持不变，对于白酒认为：1、本轮复苏的主要驱动力是消费升级，复苏具备持续 性；2、行业复苏是分化的，受益的是全国化名酒及地方龙头；3、当前高端酒的量价表现 是超春节前预期的；4、下半年白酒估值会进一步提升，板块溢价+超配成为常态。对于必 须消费品，一季度是成本压力最大时期，全年看成本端压力逐季趋缓，布局提价能力强， 估值有优势的龙头公司，包括伊利、安琪、重啤、双汇及调味品公司。