Russia’s mining industry is dominated by a few domestic players that control almost all of the minerals mining activity in the country. Russia’s regulatory environment restricts foreign miners from entering the industry which further contributes to the high concentration in the sector. The nickel and diamond subsectors have near-monopolistic structures, with one producer accounting for more than 90% of the total production. Competition is likely to remain low in the Russian mining industry over the next few years, given the government’s restrictive policy towards foreign players. Subsectors that are considered more competitive are coal and gold production. There are 150,00 miners in the coal industry, with the top six players controlling 60% of total production. The leading gold producing company controls slightly over 20% of the market.

The fluctuating product demand of hydrocarbon cracking process steers the demand in the petrochemical industry due to which the industry is projected to grow significantly over the next couple of years in-line to increasing global demand for transportation fuel. Naphtha is procured from multiple sources which includes coal tar and wood feed among others. These sorts of feedstock are included in the process depending upon the demand of downstream products including chemical solvents, formaldehyde, pigment, fuel and yield. They are also broadly used for catalytic reformations in order to enhance fuels and octane numbers. There are multiple regulations that operates in the naphtha market across the globe.

2018 年宏观经济虽承压，但地产投资较好带动产业链条向上支撑终端需求，煤价中枢维持高位。供给方面，煤炭产量虽同比增加，但环保限产及进口政策干扰供给释放节奏，消费端在供给释放节奏被打乱叠加学习效应的强化下，采购节奏随之发生改变，煤价整体呈现 5、6 月“淡季不淡”，7、11、12 月“旺季不旺”的走势。

美国重启对伊制裁打破原本脆弱的供需平衡，加之委内瑞拉持续被动减产，美国自身因基础设施建设进度滞后导致产量无法释放，国际原油在供给层面问题频频，推动油价整体突破“中油价”，进入70-90美元/桶的“中高油价”区间。

预计2019、2020年待去产能分别为0.69、0.58亿吨，剩余产能的退出对行业供给影响非常有限，落后产能淘汰、推进先进产能释放、保证煤炭供应、平抑煤价波动的政策大方向仍将延续，对行业的影响更多的是细节上的优化。

2019年动力煤展望，优质产能投产促进供给放量，需求端韧性较强。2019年焦化行业展望，焦化行业开启环保升级，行业集中度有望提升。

预计2019、2020年待去产能分别为0.69、0.58亿吨，剩余产能的退出对行业供给影响非常有限，落后产能淘汰、推进先进产能释放、保证煤炭供应、平抑煤价波动的政策大方向仍将延续，对行业的影响更多的是细节上的优化。