我们认为，未来大型国有企业仍将是海上风电投资的主角；能够生产更大机型，并且质量有保证的整制造商将获得更有利的地位，海上风机毛利率水平将处 +于较高水平；海底电缆产能在未来 2年相对稳定，随着后续更多海上风电项目的招标启动，海缆供需将会处于紧平衡。

Historically, the development of the domestic industrial chemical and petrochemical industry has been characterised by protectionism. Nevertheless, it is still one of the strongest economic sectors in Colombia. The chemicals and petrochemicals market is competitive and highly price-sensitive as a result of the opening up of the Colombian economy. However, customer and after-sales support are important factors in determining local buyers' purchasing decisions. Compared to other countries, US industrial chemicals are preferred for their higher quality levels.

Russia initiated restructuring and liberalisation of its electric power sector in the early 2000s. The first steps included the liberalisation of power prices but that process did not include the household segment, where prices remain regulated. Another major step was the government’s decision to restructure the power monopoly United Energy Systems of Russia (RAO-UES) by splitting its assets into smaller companies, some of which were offered for privatisation, enabling foreign companies such as E.ON, Enel and Fortum to enter the market. Still, as of end-2017, the state remains in control of most of the power generating capacities and owns the transmission grid.

In 1992, the Argentine Congress passed Law 24,065, establishing a regulatory framework providing guidelines for the deregulation and privatisation of the electric power sector, until then a state monopoly. It also created the wholesale electric power market or MEM, and CAMMESA, the company that administrates the market, owned by the government (20%), generators (20%), distributors (20%) and large consumers (20%). Since then, all segments have been open to private investment, although the combined ownership of generation and transmission is restricted, which means that distribution companies’ stake in power generation and transmission is restricted to 10% and that generation companies cannot have a majority stake in a transmission entity.

The loan agreement between the European Investment Bank (EIB) and ICGB AD company, implementing the Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria (IGB) project, is planned to be signed by the end of January. Albania approved a decision on the temporary use of property for the project of protecting the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which envisages the transportation of Azerbaijani gas to Europe. Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which envisages the transportation of Azerbaijani gas to Europe, will be put into operation by 2020. BP may discover a new giant offshore field in Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani state oil company SOCAR will start detailed technical and economic research to participate in the Bulgarian gas distribution market.

The growing electricity prices along with stringent energy consumption regulations are likely to propel the demand for electric AC motors over the coming years. The increasing number of construction activities across the globe is also expected to act as a key factor for market growth. Moreover, the increasing standards for the enhancement of efficiency and design are impelling manufacturers to design and produce energy efficient motors. Rapid industrialization is also a significant factor anticipated to fuel the demand for these motors.

行业产能过剩与高端产能不足长久并存：从四大主要材料到锂电池环节，锂电池及电解液、正极均是高端产能不足，而低端产能过剩，主要原因是下游整车厂出于安全考虑，会选择可靠性更高的供应商，从而使得行业分化明显。

2018 年受国内政策影响，光伏装机规模萎缩，产品价格下降，随着国内政策转暖及平价上网在全球越来越普遍，行业需求将逐渐转向市场驱动，2019 年有望走出低谷，呈现量增价稳态势，产业链盈利将明显修复。

市场紧盯补贴变化，关注龙头公司在行业整合中的机会：受补贴政策尚未落地影响，市场对电动车板块保持较谨慎态度。退坡趋势中，产业链各环节价格难免将承受降价压力，但在产业整合、估值降温之际，或也蕴育着投资机会。坚持产业链选股逻辑，看好国内及海外龙头车企及电池企业相关产业链。

截至本报告期末，电气设备指数 2019年累积涨幅 8.52%，最近一年跌幅达 26.07%，沪深 300指数同期跌幅为 27%，相对涨跌幅差距已缩小至一个百分点以内。行业整体企价值倍数（EV2/EBITDA）为 17.84倍，整体PE估值回升至 24.96倍。

始于2017 年的“煤改气”政策是驱动天然气消费量增速提升的最大因素。根据发改委最新数据，2018 年1-11 月我国天然气消费量2510 亿方，同比增长18%，经测算2018 年消费量或超2800 亿方，2019 年仍将保持15%以上高增速。以煤改气典型地区河北省为例，河北住建厅披露2017 年实改231.8 万户，消费量同比增长33%达93.5 亿方；根据《河北省2018年冬季清洁取暖工作方案》的预测，2018 年煤改气145 万户，仅采暖季用气需求至少105 亿方，同比增长至少36%。经测算河北省仍有剩余改造量483.8 万户，按照《河北省天然气发展“十三五”规划》，2020 年河北省天然气需求量不低于270 亿立方米，未来两年CAGR 高达42.4%。

随着变电站智能化水平的不断提高，智能变电站一体化信息技术的需求也越来越受到关注.首先介绍了现行智能变电站的通用结构，针对其信息共享不充分的问题提出了“四网合一”的方案.然后基于端对端延时特性分析对其可能的不同网络拓扑进行建模，并对不同数据包大小下各种拓扑的延时和相同数据包大小下不同拓扑的延时给出仿真结果.最后通过对仿真结果的讨论分析并综合实时性和可靠性考虑，对智能变电站“四网合一”方案做出选择.

电力央企整合和核工业改革应同步规划和实施。在进行电力央企重组的同时，同步解决我国核工业存在的结构性问题。

本文基于1984-2016年的数据建立VAR模型，研究能源消费与GDP之间的关系。研究结果显示：经济增长与能源消费间存在长期均衡关系；经济增长和能源消费长期正相关；经济增长和能源消费互为因果关系；国内生产总值对自身的冲击效应要大于能源消费对国内生产总值的冲击效应；国内生产总值对自身的贡献率一直排在第一位，维持在60%以上；能源消费对国内生产总值的贡献率一直为正值，最高达到40%左右。

2018年4季度，新出台的电力行业政策主要涉及电力体制改革、清洁能源发电及转供电工作三个方面。具体来看，第一，电力体制改革加快推进。针对试点项目落地进展情况，建立增量配电业务改革试点项目通报制度和直接联系制度，进一步健全完善电力现货市场建设试点工作机制。第二，清洁能源发电再获政策支持。三部门联合发文促光伏行业健康可持续发展，部分户用自然人光伏发电项目仍可纳入国家认可规模管理范围；《清洁能源消纳行动计划(2018-2020年)》出台，清洁能源消纳工作提速。第三，国家发展改革委清理规范转供电环节加价，优化提升用电营商环境。

中国清洁能源集中在西部、北部，当地用电负荷小，难以就地消纳，需要在全国范围优化配置。从新能源特性的角度研究中国西部地区风能、太阳能、水能等不同种类清洁能源的互补特性，进而研究多能互补在缓解新能源发电间歇性、随机性、波动性方面的效益，提出一种考虑网络约束与新能源随机特性的时序运行模拟技术，并对中国西部新能源大规模开发情景进行生产运行模拟计算。研究结果表明：建设西北与西南联网通道，可以实现多能互补，改善新能源外送电力品质，提高清洁能源外送通道利用效率。