回顾 2017 年，农业板块表现较弱，生猪成为行业热点。2017 年 1~10 月，农业板块指数明显弱于沪深 300 和创业板。行业中个股分化明显，主要呈现龙头行情，子领域中生猪热度最大，龙头公司牧原股份成为行业表现最好的一只股票。

政策推动农业规模化加速：过去十年，养殖的规模化造就了温氏股份、牧原股份等大市值公司。未来来看，我们认为我国土地确权带动的土地规模化经营、农村土地三项改革以及中低制造业从一二线城市向三四线城市（乃至村镇）转移三者将相互促进，协同发展， 共同推动我国农业规模化经营加速，迎来黄金发展期！

Turmeric or Curcuma longa is a rhizomatous herbaceous perennial plant that belongs to the ginger family, Zingiberaceae. Turmeric as a crop is native to Asia, and it requires temperatures between 68°F and 86°F and a considerable amount of annual rainfall to thrive. The root of the turmeric plant, also known as rhizome, is valued for its medicinal and culinary properties. According to the University of Maryland Medical Center (UMCC), turmeric has been utilized for the preparation of food as well as medicines for over 4,000 years. Currently, in international cuisine, it is widely used for food coloring and seasoning or as a preservative.

Honey is a sweet food produced by bees foraging nectar from flowers. Honey bees convert nectar to honey through regurgitation and evaporation. The bees store the honey as a primary food source in wax honeycombs inside beehives. The beekeepers extract the honey by removing the honey comb and then by crushing it or using a honey extractor. Honey bees form an important part of the food chain as they aid in pollination, which is required to support the food chain.

上周（11 月 27 日～12 月 1 日）农业指数（申万）、沪深 300 指数和中小板综合指数分别上涨-1.34%、-2.58%和 0.15%，其中，农业指数（申万）跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.24 个百分点。

当前，从全球粮食库存量（库消比）下降预期、不利天气的演化（拉尼娜加重并影响当前阿根廷大豆生长）、以及原油价格上涨等多种因素来看， 2018 年全球以粮价为主的农产品价格上涨的概率正在不断升高。所以我们认为 2018 年的配置依旧应该以细分市场龙头为主，重点推荐温氏股份（黄羽肉鸡、生猪养殖龙头）、海大集团（饲料行业龙头，兼具产业链一体化趋势）、中牧股份（市场苗新贵，转型在途）。