上周市场情绪和资金面略有好转，电子行业出现小幅反弹，但整体行情持续性不高。目前电子行业整体估值依然处于低位，业绩增速较快且保持相对稳定。台南地震对电子行业供应影响甚微，台积电、联电等均表示损失不大，我们估计此次事件对产业供应链影响可以忽略不计。

本周市场行情上扬，沪深 300 指数总体上涨 1.46%，电子板块指数上涨 2.17%，跑赢大盘 0.71%。我们持续关注供需格局改善下 LED 行业变化。2月8日，封测厂商木林森将部分照明用灯珠的价格上调 15%以降低原材料价格上涨带来的压力。芯片、封测两大 LED 供给端持续涨价，验证了前期我们声明的 LED 供给端内部链条不能衔接，与下游应用存在供需差异的逻辑。

A 股相关公司在机构年初调仓、IPO 加速等宏观环境下走势较弱，从而引发市场对基本面的过分担忧。与此同时，海外科技公司股价普遍大涨，我们认为，美国、香港、台湾的不少标杆性龙头公司股价创新高反映了行业基本面的健康，A 股科技公司有望迎来估值修复行情。

在显示技术升级换代加速的背景下，消费者对于显示器性能的要求也在不断提高，OLED显示技术以其全彩色显示、对比度高、视角宽、响应速度快、功耗低、制作过程相对简单、可柔性可透明显示等优点，逐渐从各种显示技术中脱颖而出，将引领新一代显示技术未来的发展。当前，在应用的驱动下，国内外OLED产业投资布局加速。在显示面板的带动下，OLED材料、设备等领域涌动着发展潜力。准确把握OLED产业发展热点和时机，对于政府、企业、机构投资决策意义重大。

整体情况: 截止目前，电子行业共有 130 家公司发布 2016 年业绩预告。其中正面总计 106 家，其中预增 72 家，略增 18 家，扭亏 16 家；负面预告总计 24 家，其中预减 13 家，略减 6 家，转亏 5 家。整体而言，72 家公司的 2016 年业绩预告同比增长中值超越 20%，2016 年一到三季度整体电子行业归属母公司净利润同比分别为 39.5%、34.2%、37.3%，对比我们表3中重点跟踪公司的业绩预估平均同比增幅为38.9%，显示电子产业四季度业绩同比增长幅度仍维持于过去之平均水准，判断电子板块仍持续处于扩张阶段不变，维持“增持”评级。

16 年电子行业延续了业绩普增的趋势，实现正增长的公司占比约 76%，已发布业绩预告的 140 家公司合计盈利约 250 亿元~297 亿元，考虑仍有几十家未发布业绩预告，16 年盈利有望超过 15 年的全年盈利 272 亿元。根据 SW 电子的行业分类，业绩增长超过 100%的共41 家，占比约 28%；共 49 家实现 0%-50%的业绩增长，占比最多，约34%；仅5家公司预计业绩出现亏损，占比约 3.4%。

被动器件是区别于主动器件的电子元器件，通常也被称作无源器件，主要包括 RCL 元件（电阻、电容和电感）及被动射频元器件两大类。电容器是主要作用为电荷储存、交流滤波或旁路、切断或阻止直流电压、提供调谐及振荡等，广泛应用于电路中的隔直通交、耦合、旁路、滤波、调谐回路、能量转换、控制等方面；电感主要功能是筛选信号、过滤噪声、稳定电流及抑制电磁波干扰等；电阻器是电路中应用数量最多的电子元件，具有限流作用。它们均被广泛应用于电脑设备、通讯设备、视频音频设备、消费类电子产品、电气自动化设备、电信广播设备等各类电子产品。

The motorcycle traction control system (TCS) is an add-on safety feature that complements the anti-lock braking system to offer higher stability, especially during the cornering and tilting of motorcycles. The TCS market is still in its nascent stage because this system is largely restricted to premium motorcycles that are used for touring and racing.The market dynamics of the TCS revolves around the adoption of Anti-lock braking system and the cost of the system. We expect rapid adoption of ABS during the forecast period owing to various governments mandating this technology as a standard fitment in motorcycles, which will set the stage for TCS. On the otherhand, original equipment manufacturers effort toward cost reduction of the system will complement the high-volume adoption of ABS in mid and entry-level motorcycles.

The global mobile pet care market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.27% during the forecast period. The market is driven by the need for convenience in reducing travel time among pet owners who have hectic lifestyles. Service providers are customizing their vehicles to accommodate more equipment and storage space to provide efficient mobile pet care services to clients. Hanvey Engineering and Design, Bowie International, Dodgen Mobile Technologies, and Odyssey Mobile Grooming are some of the mobile van manufacturers providing customized solutions for mobile pet care service providers. The mobile grooming service is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.66% during2015-2020. The segment's fast-paced growth can mainly be attributed to the high number and frequency of customers opting for these services for their pets.Grooming services are needed often to maintain pet hygiene, whereas veterinary care services are used only at certain instances, mainly when the pets fall sick,their vaccinations are due, or for regular check-ups. The mobile pet care service providers are indulging in multimedia advertising to showcase their offering and attract potential customers. For instance, in addition to using their vans to advertise their service offering, the service providers are also posting their advertisements on bulletin boards of vet clinics, animal shelters, pet stores, and animal-related businesses.

One of the primary drivers behind the global motorcycle side view assist system (MSVAS) market is the continued incidence of motorcycle rider fatalities, which has reached an all-time high of 250% compared to the number of registered motorcycles in the US, as of 2014. A distinct lack of riding skills, combined with a failure to appreciate the inherent operating characteristics of a motorcycle with regard to a car, has been found to be some of the prevalent reasons behind motorcycle fatalities. This is the rider safety cavity that MSVAS is expected to fill. Apart from the safety angle, bikers usually gravitate toward touring bikes/maxiscooters due to the comfort offered by these bikes. MSVAS plays right into the expectations of this consumer base by easing the effort on their necks since it replaces the traditional "turning the head" ritual, which bikers usually do when changing lanes.

This market report provides a comprehensive overview of the mobile network operator and MVNO telecom market across the various economies of Asia. The list of operators ranges from the giant China Mobile with more than 850 million subscribers right through to a number of much smaller operators with only a few thousand subscribers each. And of course there are the mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs).The focus of this report is on the operators within their individual national markets. In addition to these individual operators there are those companies such as SingTel, Vodafone, and Axiata (formerly Telekom Malaysia International) that have built a substantial presence around the Asian region beyond their own domestic market through their shareholdings in operators in multiple other markets. While this aspect of the regional operations is not discussed in any detail, it is mentioned in passing in the relevant country reviews.

The global mobile negative-AND (NAND) flash market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.2% during the forecast period. NAND flash is gaining more popularity over dynamic random access memory (DRAM) as it does not have to be powered continuously to retain data.Vendors are shifting their focus from the production of 2D NAND to 3D NAND, as the latter stores more bits of data per layer of memory cells and lowers the cost per gigabyte.The smartphone and tablet application segments are the two largest segments of the global mobile NAND flash market. NAND flash is ideal for portable devices due to its non-volatile feature and hence it is widely used in smartphones and tablets.The smartphone market is growing at a CAGR of 7.61% and the tablet market is growing at a CAGR of 8.32%, which provide an incentive for NAND flash vendors.

Uncertainty has a cycle, like everything else, which threatened to peak in 2016, as geopolitical risk took centre-stage in shaping the fortunes of global corporates. Our view: the net effects of anti-trade sentiment from growing nationalism, protectionism, and Brexit are likely to outweigh greater hope for fiscal stimulus in corporates’ investment planning.An overall stable outlook for corporate ratings in 2017 also fails to show persisting high levels of regional disparity. Net Negative Outlooks and Watches improved strongly in the U.S, but Latin American corporates are facing increasingly challenging conditions and a weakening credit trend with Negative Outlooks comprising 31% of our international rating portfolio. The slow recovery from the recession in Brazil, weak domestic growth rates in Chile, tax reforms in Colombia, and economic uncertainty in Mexico will continue to pressure ratings over the next 12 to 18 months.

Increased adoption of smart devices such as smartphones, tablets, and laptops is contributing significantly to the market growth. Connected devices (smartphones and tablets) will continue to drive the industry momentum.High-scale deployment of LTE networks for better connectivity is favoring the market. The availability of enhanced cellular connectivity is boosting the growth of the global mobile hotspot router market. Decreasing costs of connectivity services throughout the globe has become a prominent factor for increased growth of this market.Increase in online retail activities through smart devices aids the market growth.More than 115 million non-smartphone connected devices (mobile PCs, tablets and mobile hotspot devices) were sold worldwide in 2015 owing to the demand for theinternet to access information.

The global mobile backhaul equipment market will grow steadily during the forecast period, as telecom operators are upgrading their network to high-speed packet access (HSPA+) and long-term evolution (LTE).Mobile network operators serving the global mobile backhaul equipment market are shifting from fiber and copper networks to microwave because of shorter time to market.The Americas, EMEA, and APAC have an increased penetration of smartphones and growth in mobile data traffic.The market has become competitive due to the increased presence of Chinese vendors in APAC and MEA. These vendors are investing heavily in R&D for providing sustainable, innovative low-cost products and business models in the market.Vendors are using millimeter wave, an upcoming technology, to manage the data traffic growth and provide better services to consumers.

The motorcycle infotainment system market is in its nascent stage and is expected to witness steady growth during the forecast period. This is due to the rising numbers of long distance cross-country touring motorcyclists.In 2015, motorcycle infotainment system market was driven by heavyweight motorcycles. However, we expect gradual adoption of infotainment systems in midsegment and commuter motorcyclists.Infotainment system manufacturers are expected to actively invest in R&D to enhance the performance and compatibility with consumer electronics devices such as smartphones. Additionally, an emphasis on product positioning and price optimization may result into their adoption in all segments of motorcycles.

近期，虽然国内市场持续震荡，消费电子板块不温不火，但受益于苹果 FY2017Q1 iPhone 销售及公司业绩好于预期，海外整体消费电子股涨势明显。在这当中，摄像头板块的表现最为亮眼，行业主要的高端 lens 厂商大立光、玉晶光等年初至今涨幅都在 25%+，主要的模组厂商 LG Innotek、舜宇光学等年初至今也都实现较大的涨幅。剖析背后的原因，我们认为是双摄趋势开始兑现在海外龙头的业绩上，带动了这波摄像头机会。 

2016 年软件业平稳収展，收入增速与2015 年基本持平：根据工信部数据，2016 年1-12 月我国软件业实现收入4.9 万亿元，同比增长14.9%，比2015 年的全年增速下降了0.8 个百分点，相比2016 年1-11 月，增速提高0.1 个百分点。16 年年初以来，软件业收入同比增速的降幅在收窄。我们判断，软件行业收入增速已经触底，2017 年全年软件业收入同比增速将会缓慢上行，有望超过15%的年增速水平。

随着春节效应逐步消退，大盘已经开始恢复活力，指数连拉出 5 阳，各个板块均有上涨，交投活跃，赚钱效应明显。在此良好氛围下，通信板块也稳步上涨，其涨幅在 28 个行业中居前，整体上涨 2.48%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.5个百分点，其中中国联通强势带动运营板块上涨了 4.87%，通信设备板块在年报消息面刺激下也有所走强，上涨 1.82%。由此看来，在整体环境回暖之际，无论大盘股还是小盘股都会有表现的机会。

“一带一路”建设配套重点是信息基础设施，处于全球领先的国内电信设备企业预期将最受益一带一路地区的信息基建。结合估值，相关子行业及个股重点推荐上游-光迅科技（光器件），中游-烽火通信/亨通光电/中天科技（光传输网设备&光纤光缆）、海能达（专网设备）、星网锐捷/紫光股份（IP数通设备），下游-高新兴（新疆地区“智慧城市”）、网宿科技（CDN国际市场） ，及关注中兴通讯(全产业链综合型) 、二六三（跨境企业及个人通信服务业务）等。