本周我们持续推荐后周期板块，认为随着规模化猪场补栏稳步推进，后周期龙头最为受益。结合近期草根调研我们认为后周期板块业绩确定性较高，未来有望持续表现，继续重点推荐疫苗（生物、中牧、普莱柯） 和饲料（禾丰、唐人神、海大、金新农）板块优质个股，同时关注回调后的种植链机会，尤其是低估值种子龙头（登海、隆平）和受益于粮价差的象屿股份（北粮南运粮商）。

受禽流感影响，西班牙已经实际封关，短期内新西兰、波兰复关难度较大，预计 2017 年全年引种量将继续下滑，或仅约 30-40 万套。目前国内祖代、父母代环节存在普遍强制换羽，正因为换羽信息“黑箱”导致价格拐点判断失误。 从父母代存栏数据来看，产能消化仍需要时间。当前国内H7N9 疫情较往年严峻，鸡肉消费低迷，随着季节变化疫情爆发将进入平稳阶段。建议关注益生股份、圣农发展、民和股份、仙坛股份。

农业部 2 月 21 日召开全国农村承包地确权登记颁证工作视频会议，强调随着试点范围扩大和各地不同进展，要切实加强分类指导：对于基本完成的省份，要加快推进确权成果应用，促进农村集体产权制度改革，推进“三权分置”有序实施，加快建立承包合同网签和农村承包地确权登记制度；对于计划 2017 年底完成的省份，要规范检查验收，严格验收程序和标准，规范证书发放，保质有序颁发权属证书，各类档案资料做到一户一档，准确完备；对于计划 2018 年底完成的省份，要确保数据信息收集的准确、完整，严格执行公示程序，进一步完善合同，建好登记簿。

Aquaculture is the rearing and cultivation of aquatic animals and plants for food under controlled conditions. It involves the farming of over 540 species of finfish, mollusks, crustaceans, and other invertebrates; about 35 species of seaweed; over 30 species of freshwater macrophytes; a few species of amphibians and aquatic reptiles; and about 50 species of microalgae and invertebrates as fish-food organisms in hatcheries.

Health-conscious millennials, aged between 20 and 35 years, worldwide are preferring quinoa and quinoa-based food owing to the nutritional benefits; quinoa contains protein, fiber, various vitamins and minerals, and essential amino acids.During 2014-2015, the food and drink products launched globally with quinoa as an ingredient increased by around 27%. This is attributed to the rising status of quinoa as a superfood. Also, the number of new food and drinks products launched with a claim of being a superfood or supergrain increased by more than 200% during 2011-2015.Owing to quinoa's adaptability and tolerance to arid conditions, it has emerged asan attractive crop for farmers across various geographical regions. Over the years,quinoa has been receiving greater attention from crop scientists as well as the agribusiness sector, which in turn, will lead to the development of more productive varieties and improved crop yield and quality.Health experts and dieticians nowadays are recommending quinoa-based foods as a part of the diet. This is because of the easy digestibility as well as nutritional profile of quinoa.During the forecast period, food technologists and innovators will continue incorporating quinoa into new product lines to offer consumers a cost-effective solution for nutrition and health maintenance.

本周我们持续推荐后周期板块，认为随着规模化猪场补栏结构性特征明显，补栏速度与养殖规模高度相关，动保龙头最为受益。结合近期草根调研我们认为后周期板块业绩确定性较高，未来有望持续表现，继续重点推荐疫苗中高端苗板块（生物、中牧、普莱柯）和饲料（禾丰、唐人神、海大、金新农）板块优质个股，同时关注回调后的种植链机会，尤其是低估值种子龙头（隆平、登海）和受益于粮价差的象屿股份（北粮南运粮商）。   

3 月第二周与2 月均价相比：1）猪肉零售价跌5.9%，禽肉价格上涨3.0%至18.5%；2）油脂价格跌4.5%；3）海珍品涨3.2%；淡水鱼价格涨2.9%；4）原粮价格跌0.8%；5）蔬菜价格跌5.4%；6）鸡蛋跌2.2%；7）南宁糖价跌0.6%。

农业现代化发展面临的主要挑战发生深刻变化。“十三五”时期，农业现代化发展面临的主要挑战发生了深刻变化，主要体现在以下四个方面：一是部分农产品供求结构性失衡的问题日益凸显；二是我国农业大而不强、多而不优的问题更加突出；三是农业发展方式粗放，农业面源污染问题严重；四是农民持续增收难度加大的问题日益凸显。

原材料价格下跌导致草甘膦价格回落。目前草甘膦价格为23,000 元/吨（95%原粉华东地区价格），较之前25,000 元/吨有所回落，主要原因是之前原材料全线过快上涨带动草甘膦价格快速上涨。

本轮猪周期产能恢复“结构性”特征明显，规模化猪场产能上升迅速、广大中小养殖户大量退出，结构化产能恢复对下游疫苗、饲料的影响正逐步体现，其中以散户为主体目标客户的饲料企业压力最大，而以规模化猪场为客户群体的下游企业则充分受益，建议关注生物股份、海利生物。从估值角度，继续推荐水产饲料龙头、东北饲料龙头。 

上周大盘震荡调整，农林牧渔表现欠佳，板块跌幅为-1.08%，跑赢沪深300（-1.32%），在中信一级行业中列位倒数第九。