2 月轻工造纸板块表现抢眼，上涨 5.39%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.77 个百分点，在申万一级行业中轻工指数排名第五；子板块中造纸继续领涨（6.85%），家具板块渐入佳境（5.83%）。我们认为，轻工行业景气度有望持续：造纸 3-4 月是行业涨价的重要窗口，建议密切跟踪涨价真实落地情况；家具板块继续看好规模化定制和渗透率亟待提升的新品类两大主线；包装上游涨价压力有所缓解，企业盈利能力有望好转，看好客户拓展、并购整合能力强，内生外延成长性好的龙头企业；主题板块看好互联网和电话售彩，3 月底三部委督查结果将上报财政部，建议密切关注。

The packaging and labeling and printing industries are the two major end-user industries of synthetic paper. The growth of these sectors is attributed to the rapid rate of urbanization in the developing countries and the rising affluence of the middle-class population. These reasons have led to a rise in the opportunities for consumerism, such as a high demand for lifestyle services and consumer goods. The biaxially-oriented polypropylene (BOPP) segment was the largest material segment for synthetic paper due to its unique properties, such as easy printability, superior strength, versatility, and cost effectiveness. The segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6% from 2015 to 2020.Labeling is the fastest growing application of the synthetic paper market. This fastpaced growth is attributed to the increased consumption of packaged foods and beverages, which is characterized by stringent labeling regulations.Asia-Pacific (APAC) was the largest synthetic paper market, and the growth can be attributed to the rise in demand from end-use industries including chemicals, cosmetics, and food and beverage. These industries have experienced an increase in consumption as a result of the increase in purchasing power and growth in disposable income of the working middle-class population.

需求平稳，并非主要矛盾。箱板瓦楞主要用于货物运输过程中的二次包装，下游行业较多，归根结底人口结构和地产周期是推动中期需求弹性的核心因素，而长期趋势则与宏观经济相关。过去一年，地产大年是需求改善的主因，婴儿潮红利尚需时日，整体来看，对箱板瓦楞需求的拉动有限。

The global photo merchandising market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.69% during the forecast period as vendors can charge a price premium for their services.The US is the leading country for photo merchandise due to huge popularity of photo cards. The photo card market in the US contributed 60% to the global photo card market due to the custom of sending cards during festive occasions.Photo gifts constitute the fastest growing segment in the market due to an increasing number of innovations that use photo merchandise.

我们认为本轮造纸价格上涨的直接原因是原材料成本上涨，但其背后根本原因在于供需结构已悄然发生变化。“一叶落而知天下秋”，造纸产业链中去库存加速、中小企业频频退出、准入门槛不断增加都在聚集涨价动能，在需求并未有明显变化之下而仅出现成本上涨却促使纸价一波波如火如荼的攀升，瓦楞纸平均出厂价相对于 2016 年年初上涨达到 56.2%，牛卡、灰底白板纸则分别上涨 52%、24.8%。

随着消费能力的提升和消费主力群体的转变，轻工消费品正由过去的看重高性价比、耐用性向强调品牌、个性化、美观度演进，需求层次由满足基本的生存和功能性需求向娱乐型需求推进；供给端轻工制造企业也由简单的规模化生产、贴牌代工向设计+品牌两端提升，通过提供高附加值服务获取更多产品溢价。重点推荐家具、玩具、文具、教育领域的品牌崛起。

地产三四线销量超预期，大部分家具品牌门店去年四季度订单火爆，部分订单转移到一季度完成，行业增速有望延续高增长。近期部分品牌家具涨价导致盈利弹性扩张逻辑并不可持续。对于低频次可选消费品，盈利能力提升发生在供给收缩以及需求扩张阶段，目前家具销量受制于地产周期下行，且终端需求无爆发式增长。对于经销商而言，原材料价格上涨与终端价格上涨不具可比性。因此，终端门店价格上涨并不代盈利能力提升。

上周大盘小幅调整，全周收跌 1.08%，轻工制造板块强于大盘（家用轻工>造纸>包装印刷）。去年以来，多数纸品在原材料价格、煤炭价格以及运输成本上涨等因素推动下，价格普遍实现较大涨幅。由于环保政策及供给侧改革推动产能约束以及纸厂库存普遍偏低等原因，我们认为纸品价格还将保持高位运行。本周，我们重点推荐拥有国内外完整废纸采购网络体系，股权激励高度彰显经营信心，同时具备多项业绩驱动因素的国内前三大包装纸供应商山鹰纸业。