Packaging has become an integral part in the supply chain of any industry. There is a growing demand for packaging in sectors such as food and beverages, agriculture, healthcare, and construction. This has led to the introduction of innovative packaging materials and designs by vendors. Over the past two decades, the packaging industry has been experiencing a huge transformation in terms of innovation and design. From the use of simple packaging materials like glass, metal, and paper, the industry has come a long way to the use of different plastic polymers such as PE, PET, EVOH, LDPE, and HDPE. In addition, there have been a lot of changes in the types of packaging like the introduction of bag-in-boxes, pouches, and paper bags.

Labels are made of different types of material, such as cloth, film, paper, and plastic and have different features, such as in-mold and pressure-sensitive adhesives. The glue applied labels hold a substantial percentage in the global label market, but because of the increase in demand for pressure-sensitive and sleeve labels, the glue applied label market will be affected. Glue applied labels have become popular in many retail outlets. With several new products being launched by vendors, packaging companies are being encouraged to adopt technologically advanced glue applied labels, which has resulted in the growth of the market.

The trend of lighter corrugated containerboard packaging in the retail sector plays a significant role in determining the demand for containerboard shipment.The increased demand for corrugated boxes from the food and beverage industry to package fresh fruit and vegetables and dairy products is expected to increase the shipment volume in the future.Companies are trying to innovate their packaging designs to increase the sales of corrugated boxes, which are used for secondary packaging. So, companies are using digital printing to make boxes more appealing. It provides an opportunity to print high-quality images on the boxes and present their products at the point of sale. They are also focusing on recycling products to further production, which propels the sales of containerboard products.

上周大盘震荡下行，全周收跌 1.44%，轻工制造板块强于大盘（造纸>家用轻工>包装印刷）。我们推荐的组合中，索菲亚、好莱客、鸿博股份和珠江钢琴录得正收益。回顾 3 月份市场行情：由于年前贸易商囤货现象严重，年后终端客户需求下降，箱板瓦楞纸陷入滞销状态，月初至月末主流纸厂瓦楞纸降幅约1,200 元/吨，箱板纸降幅也达 800 元/吨左右，包装纸市场降温明显；与包装纸行情相形成对比，文化纸成为 3 月份各纸种中价格最为坚挺的品种，铜版、双胶成交良好，纸厂集中发布 300-500 元/吨的涨价通知。

上周几家家居公司陆续公布 2016 年年报，印证我们行业第一梯队持续整合的判断：大亚圣象（产品结构改善，高毛利产品占比提升；人造板毛利率同比提升 5.6pct，地板毛利率同比提升 1.7pct； 公司整体净利率同比提升 3.1pct；谨慎会计处理 16 年计提减值准备 1.1 亿元）、曲美家居（Q4 收入增长提速，柔性化、规模化推升 Q4 毛利率创历史新高，笔八定制系列收入同比增长 93%至 2.9 亿元）、好莱客（Q4 收入增长提速，客单价提升，持续强化品牌宣传力度）。 

首推兼具内生增长和涨价弹性的晨鸣纸业（16和17年净利20.64亿和25亿+，一季度 高增长确定，目前市值206亿元）、山鹰纸业（吨利维持高位带来业绩弹性，中长期 看好公司强劲的内生增长能力和行业集中度提升。公司350wt箱板瓦楞产能和10亿平 包装产能，16-18年预计净利CAGR为78%，一季报有望超预期）、太阳纸业（17年 80万吨包装纸产能贡献业绩增量，铜版纸和溶解浆盈利提升值得期待；18年20万吨特 种纸/老挝溶解浆/80万吨箱板纸持续落地，预计17-18年净利分别为15亿元和18亿元