高盛在本月初发布了一份题为“The Genome Revolution（基因组革命）”的报告，认为近年来迅速崛起的生物技术公司有望开发出一次性治愈慢性疾病的疗法，并认为：“快速甚至是一次性治愈患者的商业模式并不利于长期利润，比如说基因疗法”。

4 月 17 日，国家药品监督管理局召开干部大会，深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，动员部署机构改革工作，研究谋划药品监管事业改革发展思路和举措。国家药品监督管理局党组书记、副局长李利发表讲话，国家药品监督管理局局长焦红主持。

1～2 月，受春节、天气因素、各项审评审批越来越严格等因素影响，医药企业生产动能下降。1～2 月，医药行业工业增加值为 12.3%，增速较上年末下降 0.1 个百分点。 需求：1～2 月，医药品总体需求下降，医药终端增长放缓，中西药品零售总额为 890.9 亿元，同比增长 10.1%，增速较上年末下降 2.3 个百分点。效益：1～2 月，医药企业效益开局向好，实现利润总额 512 亿元，同比增长 37.3%，增速较上年末提高 19.5 个百分点，较上年同期提高 22.0 个百分点。

美国4月3日提出要对总值约500亿美元的1300种中国商品加征25%关税。4 日，中国商务部宣布，决定对总值 500 亿美元的美国农产品、汽车、化工品、飞机等，共 106 种商品加征 25%关税。5 日，特朗普再发声明，提出考虑对另1000 亿美元的中国商品加征关税，使中美贸易争端持续升级。

供给：2018 年以来，受各项审评审批越来越严格、市场需求恢复较慢等因素影响，医药企业生产动能较弱。1～3 月，医药行业工业增加值为 11.4%，增速较 1～2 月下降 0.9 个百分点；3月，医药行业工业增加值为 9.8%，增速较上年同期下降 1.8 个百分点。 需求：随着新医改的推进，医保控费越来越严、医院药占比越来越小、药品招标降价和辅助用药、抗生素、大输液等限制力度加大等，医药行业零售额增速放缓。3 月，中西药品零售总额为 470.9亿元，同比增长 10.9%，增速较上年同期下降 1.2 个百分点。

Third largest market in the CEE region. • Per capita spending is below the CEE average. Slowest market growth in the CEE region, in US dollar terms. Other medical devices and consumables have the largest market shares. The market remains heavily reliant on imports. Turkey has a large number of manufacturers, but these tend to be small-scale, concentrating on cheap, low-technology items. In recent years, Turkey has focused on developing its healthcare system, with the goal of providing universal healthcare, although this is yet to be achieved. Over three quarters of total health expenditure comes from the public sector, primarily central & local governments and social security programmes.

One of the largest markets in the Middle East & Africa (MEA) region, similar in size to the UAE. • Market size is supported by a large population and Africa's most industrialised economy. Owing to the size of the population, per capita spending is low. • Spending on medical devices as a proportion of wealth is below average for the MEA region. Other medical devices accounts for around 40% of the total market. Underdeveloped market offers considerable potential for growth but currently constrained by funding issues, poor infrastructure and staff shortages. National Health Insurance programme in the early stages of implementation, but question marks remain on funding and delivery of key targets. Limited medical device production, therefore market largely dependent on imports.

Eighth largest market in the CEE region. Per capita spending is the fifth highest in the region. Market will record high single-digit CAGR. Consumables and orthopaedics & prosthetics have the largest market shares. The market is heavily reliant on imports in most sectors, as local manufacturing capacity is more geared to exports. Longstanding local production of dental apparatus. Comprehensive public health insurance system introduced in 1993. Relatively underdeveloped private sector.

We have estimated nutrition and dietary supplements market by segmenting it into four levels: functions, formulations, age category, and region. On the basis of functions, the market is segmented into medical foods, sports nutrition, dietary supplements, and functional foods. Furthermore, dietary supplements are categorized into vitamins, minerals, enzymes, amino acids, and others. By formulations the market is segmented into tablet, capsules, powder, liquid, soft gel, and gel caps. On the basis of age category, the market is segmented into infant, children, adult, pregnant, and geriatric. For purpose of estimation, the Latin America market is segmented into Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Costa Rica, Chile, and Venezuela.

Sixth largest market in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region. Above average per capita spending within APAC region and globally, similar to Hong Kong, but well above mainland China. The market will exhibit high single-digit growth over the 2017-2022 period. Imports supply over three quarters of the market. The US is the largest supplier of imported products, followed by Japan, Germany and China. Taiwan has a large manufacturing industry with particular strengths in wheelchairs, patient aids and basic medical & surgical instruments.

Second smallest market in the CEE region. Per capita spending is well below the CEE average. Market will record moderate single-digit CAGR in local currency terms. Consumables and other medical devices have the largest market shares. Most requirements need to be imported; the US and Germany are major partners. Weak and undercapitalised domestic production sector. Relatively strong hospital sector, although the need for modernisation is great. • EU negotiations began in December 2015; 12 chapters have been opened to date.

Foreign automakers gearing up to tap into the growing demand for electric vehicles in China dominates this quarter's investment round-up. Pakistan's automotive landscape is also continuing its transformation with Khalid Mushtaq Motors announcing assembly plans.

Medical device market value in US dollar terms has plummeted due to local currency devaluation. Other medical devices, consumables and diagnostic imaging have large market shares. Barrio Adentro explains much of the historical market growth. The market is heavily concentrated in Caracas and other major urban areas. The market used to rely on imports, which are now tightly controlled by the government. Imports have fallen since peaking in 2011, due to local currency devaluation and import shortages. Per capita expenditure has fallen; it used to leapfrog above other Latin American countries.

Ninth largest market in the APAC region. Per capita spending is well below the APAC average. Market will record double-digit CAGR. Diagnostic imaging and other medical devices have the largest market shares. Imports supply over 90% of the market. Domestic production is limited to basic items. Some multinationals have set up plants, attracted by low manufacturing and labour costs. Ongoing healthcare infrastructure plans for hospitals and primary care facilities ensure demand.

本周生物医药指数上涨3.66%，板块表现优于沪深300的0.11%的跌幅；子板块中，表现最好的医疗服务涨幅为5.61%，最弱势的医药商业上涨2.12%。恒生指数跌幅为0.45%，表现不及恒生医疗保健指数1.17%的涨幅。美股方面，标普500保健指数上涨1.75%，好于标普5000.01%的跌幅；代表创新纳斯达克生物科技和纳斯达克HealthCare分别上涨0.63%和0.82%，好于纳斯达克100指数0.17%的跌幅。

18Q1增长加速：2017年医药板块收入增长15%，扣非净利润增长14%（剔除原料药增长14%），相比2016年略放缓；18Q1收入增长22%、扣非净利润增长32%（剔除原料药增长21%），实现加速增长。VS：统计局公布的医药制造业（包含原料药）17年&18Q1收入增长12.5%、15.8%；利润总额增长17.8%、22.5%。上市公司增长持续快于行业。

以互联网为载体的医疗服务，政策明朗终获支持：互联网医疗，是互联网在医疗领域的新应用，弥补了我国稀有且分布不均的医疗资源与日益增长的医疗健康需求之间的巨大缺口，缩短传统诊疗程序，并大大减少相关医疗成本，极大的改变了人们的生活方式。国家对于互联网医疗的态度也日渐明显。2018年4月12日，李克强主持召开国务院常务会议，确定发展“互联网+医疗健康”措施，缓解看病就医难题、提升人民健康水平。我们认为，未来国家将大力推广“互联网+医疗健康”发展，行业即将迎来新的变革。

行业数据继续回暖，龙头企业强者恒强。国家统计局数据显示，2018年1-3月医药制造业累计主营收入6252亿元，同比增长16.1%，增速较2017年同期增加3.0pp；累计利润774亿元，同比增长22.5%，增速较2017年同期增加4.3pp，呈明显持续加速趋势。在医保支付压力缓解、药品招标加速且总体趋于温和、各项有力改革政策持续落地的情况下，医药行业有望持续向好。

上周，申万医药生物指数上涨3.66%，涨跌幅居全行业首位，跑赢沪深300指数3.77个百分点。医药板块今年以来领先的因素是多方面的，首先是行业增长向好：申万医药上市公司2017年全年合计营业总收入和归母净利润分别同比增长15.82%和19.12%，增速较2016年略有上升。2018年Q1板块合计营业总收入和归母净利润分别同比增长22.05%、30.42%，相较2017年同期有显著高增长。我们认为，高增长一方面来自于各省新标陆续执行后产品逐渐上量，另一方面由今年1、2月份严重的流感疫情所拉动。对比统计局最新公布的2018年1-3月份医药制造业数据，主营业务收入和利润分别同比增长16.10%和22.50%，与2017年同期相比，分别提升了6.0和8.3个百分点，医药制造业整体数据持续向好，而上市公司的增速又优于行业整体，反映了医药制造业的结构性分化，行业资源和集中度将逐渐向优质公司靠拢，未来强者恒强是大势所趋。

2018Q1医药制造业实现主营业务收入6252亿（+16.1%）和利润774亿（+22.5%），医药行业增速明显回升。医药上市公司2018Q1收入和归母净利润增速分别为25.2%和30.7%，呈现明显加速的趋势，而且增速超过医药行业，龙头集中度持续提升。业绩高增长为2018年医药牛市提供支撑。2018年是医药行业牛市，主要原因包括：1）医药行业数据持续向好，疫苗、大输液等多个板块业绩超预期；2）创新药审批速度加快；3）商业保险快速增长、消费升级为创新药添新翼；4）医保支出结构演变，有利于医保“兜住”创新药放量；5）公募基金对医药配置仍较低、为医药牛市留下空间；6）医药板块估值性价比仍较高。