1 月 19 日，国家发改委印发《石油发展十三五规划》、《天然气发展十三五规划》，旨在提高石油利用效率，推广替代能源，引领石油消费低速增长。大力发展天然气产业，逐步把天然气培育成主体能源之一，构建结构合理、供需协调、安全可靠的现代天然气产业体系。

The glass fiber reinforced plastics (GFRP) segment accounted for the largest market share of 82.02% in 2015. This significant market share is attributed to lower cost, easy availability, and advanced specifications of GFRP that are used in making hull and interior body parts of boats and cruise ships.Polyester was mainly consumed in the manufacturing of marine composites and accounted for 48% of the market in 2015. This high share is due to the low cost of polyester composite and its ease of use as marine composites.The powerboats segment accounted for the largest market share of 55.14% in 2015. This significant market share is attributed to the technological advancements in this sector. The key drivers for the increasing demand for marine composites in powerboats are the rise in demand for high-speed boats and increasing use of fuelefficient marine transports in recreation activities.

In 2015, Asia-Pacific (APAC) accounted for the highest share (41.58%) of the global molecular sieves market in product consumption. APAC, led by India and China, will emerge as the leading region both in terms of production and consumption of molecular sieves during the forecast period. Economic growth in key developing countries, such as India and China, has been generating continuous growth in the oil and gas, petrochemical, construction, and automotive industries. These industries require desiccants such as molecular sieves to adsorb moisture content in products.In terms of end-use consumption, the oil and gas industry accounted for the largest share with 48.39% of the global molecular sieves market in 2015. Molecular sieves have high demand from the oil and gas industry. The oil and gas industry uses molecular sieves to dehumidify the industrial gases that need to be used in production processes. These sieves are used to dehydrate and clean up gases like propane and butane. Even they help to remove mercaptans, CO₂, H₂S, and other particles from natural gases. Molecular sieves also remove contaminants from natural oil feedstocks efficiently and economically. As oil and gas productionincreases and the industry grows, the consumption of molecular sieves will in turn increase.The strong oil and gas and petrochemical base in MEA, due to supportive government regulations and high R&D expenditure on the oil and gas industry in this region, has a positive impact on the demand for molecular sieves.

In 2015, Asia-Pacific (APAC) accounted for the largest share, 54%, of the global mining chemicals market. It is a key regional market and is projected to grow at the highest CAGR, 9.34%, among the geographic segments. This growth has been attributed to the increasing mining activities in the developing countries of the region and favorable government policies. The rising private and foreign investmentin the region has also been an important driver in the region's market. China, India,and Australia are the key markets in APAC.Many countries are enforcing stringent regulations on the mining chemicals processing industry to minimize the environmental hazards caused by mining activities and to encourage eco-friendly practices. With this in view, the mining chemicals industry has been developing specialized chemicals, such as granular activated carbon, liquid sodium aluminate, sodium hydroxide, ferric chloride, and dewatering polymers, to treat mining water and waste that has been polluted by this waste.Rapid industrialization and urbanization in developing countries is encouraging the demand for metals and minerals heavily. Many new mining fields have been opened in these and other areas to cater to the rising demand.

 近期油价在53美元附近正当，但对目前的油价仍相对乐观，且后期继 续冲破60美元/桶的概率较大，但是否能够站稳在60美元/桶以上甚至重新 回到高油价时代则仍需观察，下游方面，我们认为现阶段的化工品价格普涨以进入下半周期，后期将出现结构性分化，房地产相关的化工品需求不明朗程度较高、而纺织、日化、农化、汽车等产业链的需求相对刚性，可 加大关注。因油价反弹，可关注中国石油股份（0857.HK），目前低 PB 已充分反映油价下跌风险，其年均9亿桶以上的原油开采量具备极大弹 性，且目前国内天然气价格上行，其900亿立方的天然气产量同样弹性巨 大。还可关注中国石化（600028.SH）业绩全面回暖，油价上行勘探板块 拖累减轻，化工品景气度高，油品升级加价逐步落定、柴油需求好带动盈 利提升。

A 股基础化工板块各子行业涨跌幅：上周（02.03-02.10），基础化工子行业中， 聚氨酯、涂料涂漆、印染化学品、粘胶、塑料制品板块涨幅居前，分别上涨 3.92%、 3.37%、3.09%、2.93%、2.46%，其他化学制品、有机硅、无机盐、磷肥板块 跌幅居前，分别下跌 4.53%、4.39%、1.16%、0.10%。一年以来，磷肥、其他 化学原料、绵纶、氯碱、日用化学品、氮肥、涂料涂漆板块涨幅居前，其中磷肥 板块上涨 83.85%、其他化学原料、绵纶、氯碱、日用化学品、氮肥、涂料涂漆 板块分别上涨 61.34%、61.13%、59.45%、56.05%、53.02%、51.21%，仅钾 肥板块价格下跌 0.02%。

否极泰来，多因素促使下半年纯碱景气反转。2016 年下半年以来，纯碱价格直线拉升， 迎来近年来最大牛市，其中华东重碱市场价已从 6 月份底部的 1400 元/吨上涨至 2250 元 /吨，轻碱市场价也从 1225 元/吨上涨至 2200 元/吨，生产厂商盈利也大幅提升。下半年 纯碱波澜壮阔的行情主要缘于多因素的共振：1）供给端受制于环保巡查，部分企业开工 受压制；2）需求端玻璃复苏超预期，在产产能增加；3）成本端煤炭、原盐价格上涨.

行业动态与投资要点 本周（02.06-02.12）原油市场继续震荡小幅回落，二乙醇胺、TDI、粘胶短纤、 涤纶长丝、DMF 领涨。投资上推荐粘胶短纤、染料、化肥、纯碱、TDI 行业， 布局化工新材料中低估值高成长个股。 板块行情表现：上涨 2.07%，强于大盘 领涨个股包括利安隆、神剑股份、方大化工等，驱动上涨的核心原因是主题概 念、国企改革和股权转让等；本周领跌个股包括 ST 明科、清水源、世龙实业 等，主要因素是估值回归等。

受节后补库存等因素推动，化工周期品涨价如期“百花齐放”， 我们产品价格数据库显示：粘胶、涤纶、钛白、丁二烯、尿素、 炭黑、有机硅、制冷剂等大部分产品节后或多或少地涨价。去 年下半年以来不少化工品价格及相关标的股价已经历较为强势 的上涨，在“相对高位”和“审美疲劳”下，市场逐步认为涨 价的化工品不再具有稀缺性，稀缺的是涨价持续性和业绩兑现 能力。此前我们已明确提出涨价持续性最核心的仍然由供需决 定，并结合对各主要细分行业的梳

石化和化学工业是国民经济的重要支柱产业。“十三五”时期（2016年-2020年）是我国全面建成小康社会最后冲刺的五年，也是石化和化学工业加快转型升级、我国由石化工业大国向强国迈进的关键时期。“十三五”规划是行业在经济新常态下编制的第一个五年规划，编制出台《石化和化学工业发展规划（2016-2020年）》（以下简称《规划》），作为“十三五”时期石化和化学工业发展的指导性文件，对于石化和化学工业贯彻落实《国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划纲要》（以下简称“十三五规划纲要”）、《中国制造2025》等文件，推动石化和化学工业由大变强，促进行业持续科学健康发展有着重要的意义。

丁二烯是重要的石油化工基础有机原料和合成橡胶单体，主要用于合成顺丁橡胶、丁苯橡胶、丁腈橡胶、苯乙烯-丁二烯-苯乙烯弹性体以及1，2-低分子聚丁二烯。丁烯氧化脱氢是生产丁二烯的主要途径，而钼酸铋是一种广泛研究且简单有效的丁烯氧化脱氢生产丁二烯的催化剂。为了符合工业应用对催化剂耐磨损程度的要求，采用浸渍法制备负载型的钼酸铋催化剂，并对其反应性能进行考察。载体类型包括γ-氧化铝、二氧化硅小球、氧化锆、镁铝尖晶石以及硅溶胶，并选择了效果最好的二氧化硅小球作为载体进行了系统考察，包括粒径、负载量、稳定性。当使用比表面积较大的100～200目的二氧化硅小球作载体、并且活性组分γ-Bi2MoO6的负载量为30%时，最利于正丁烯的转化，丁二烯的收率达到54.74%，碳氧化物的收率仅为3.16%，这种催化剂的稳定性也很好。