Duty-free retailers are those that are exempt from certain local and national taxes and duties because they sell goods to international travelers. However, taxes may be imposed on such goods once the buyer reaches their country of destination or when the value or quantity of those goods exceeds certain limits. Such retailers operate at international airports, border towns, seaports, train stations, and onboard aircraft and ships. These retailers offer products like perfumes, cosmetics, alcohol, cigarettes,chocolates, electronics, and accessories.The global duty-free retailing market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.56% over the forecast period. In terms of distribution channels, the market was driven by the airports segment in 2015, followed by border, downtown, and hotel shops; cruise lines, ferries,and seaports; and rail stations and others. It has been estimated that the airports segment will account for a 66.34% share of the global market by 2021. In terms of geography, APAC reported the highest sales of $29.63 billion in 2016 and will likelygrow at a CAGR of 10.13% by 2021.

龙头企业连锁门店的医保资质门店比率不断提高，政策助力行业集中度提升并鼓励中医药发展，处方外流的巨大空间都将推动连锁药店的发展。未来增长有同店内生增长、新店建设加快、并购外延扩张三方面。

我们预计2017-19年水泥需求维持在24亿吨，与2016年持平。一方面房地产投资增速放缓，我们预计2017-19年房地产投资增速分别为6%/0%/0%, 水泥需求将见顶回落；另一方面在宏观经济增速放缓的大背景下，基建投资成为政府刺激经济的必要手段，预计 2017-19 年基 建投资增速分别为20%/15%/15%。

商贸零售（中信）指数上涨 1.44%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0. 23 个百分点。以中信 30 个行业板块间相比，商贸零售板块指数涨幅靠前，位列第 11 位。年初至今，商贸零售板块下跌 8.81%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1 9.59 个百分点。子板块方面，涨幅最大的为超市指数，上涨 1.69%，其次是连锁和百货，贸易指数上涨 1.30%。

2016年下半年以来弱复苏趋势延续：5M2017，社零总额同比增长为10.7%，是2016年初以来的相对高位；广发零售指数（剔除燃料、汽车、建材和医药）同比增长10.7%，创2016年以来新高；50家重点零售公司销售同比增长4.1%，连续8个月实现正增长。

上周商贸零售板块涨幅前五：*ST 人乐（10.67%）、兰生股份（10.55%）、如意集团（8.23%）、东百集团（7.06%）、家家悦（6.93%）；上周商贸零售板块跌幅前五：百大集团（-7.50%）、ST 成城（-5.93%）、茂业商业（-4.93%）、鄂武商 A（-4.39%）、红旗连锁（-3.62%）。