行业研究报告题录
制造业--石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业(2019年第3期)
(报告加工时间:2019-01-22 -- 2019-02-12)

境外分析报告

  • 越南石化报告2019年
    The government of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam controls both the upstream and downstream sectors, through the national oil company PetroVietnam (PVN). PVN is a major contributor to government revenue; it was on course to contribute a total of USD4.68bn to the state's revenue target of USD23.11bn in 2017, equivalent to 20.5%. Vietnam has a poorly developed petrochemicals industry despite significant oil and gas reserves and a respectably sized refining sector relative to the country's market size. The country has massive growth potential, but it will take many years for the industry to catch up. Binh Son Refinery (BSR) is the sole polyproyplene (PP) producer in Vietnam with a 150,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) plant located in Dung Quat industrial park in Quang Ngai province. The company is a subsidiary of state-owned oil firm PetroVietnam. However, it fulfils just 20% of the market, although the country has potentially huge domestic sources of feedstock.
  • 阿根廷石化报告2019年
    Argentina has traditionally had the highest per capita consumption of petrochemicals products in Latin America, although the petrochemical industry is modestly sized in international terms. Chemical majors such as Dow Chemical and Repsol YPF began investing heavily in the mid-1990s, which helped the Argentine industry recuperate after a period of relatively slow growth. However, since then, investment has slowed considerably and the industry has fallen behind global trends and the renationalisation of YPF in 2012 caused controversy and legal disputes, yet did not result in any improvement in feedstock availability for the petrochemicals industry. President Mauricio Macri is pursuing a more pragmatic and business-friendly period of policymaking, encouraging greater investment into unconventional assets, primarily by larger, more cash-rich producers. This is stimulating downstream investments with the hope that the country's large untapped gas reserves will help yield sufficient feedstock for a new world-scale petrochemicals complex.
  • 哥伦比亚石化报告2019年
    Historically, the development of the domestic industrial chemical and petrochemical industry has been characterised by protectionism. Nevertheless, it is still one of the strongest economic sectors in Colombia. The chemicals and petrochemicals market is competitive and highly price-sensitive as a result of the opening up of the Colombian economy. However, customer and after-sales support are important factors in determining local buyers' purchasing decisions. Compared to other countries, US industrial chemicals are preferred for their higher quality levels.
  • 新加坡石化报告2019年
    Singapore has distinguished itself as one of the leading oil refining and petrochemicals players in Asia. Despite lacking indigenous hydrocarbons resources, it boasts thriving upstream as well as downstream sectors. Petrochemicals and refining remain the lifeblood of Singapore, with strong regional demand growth meaning there is potential for capacity expansion - although investment in countries such as China and Vietnam has led to increasingly fierce competition. With dedicated government backing, the chemicals industry as a whole has proved to be one of the largest contributors to the country's manufacturing output. A strong base in refining, availability of world-class infrastructure, cost-effective logistics and a location at the crossroads of Asia, with ready market access to the Asia-Pacific region, the US, the Middle East and Africa, set the pace for the development of a world-class petrochemicals industry. Major players include US-based ExxonMobil, Netherlandsheadquartered Royal Dutch Shell, Japanese Mitsui, Sumitomo Chemical Singapore (a wholly owned subsidiary of Japan's Sumitomo Chemical Company) and Eastman Chemical Singapore.
  • 里海石油和天然气趋势
    The loan agreement between the European Investment Bank (EIB) and ICGB AD company, implementing the Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria (IGB) project, is planned to be signed by the end of January. Albania approved a decision on the temporary use of property for the project of protecting the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which envisages the transportation of Azerbaijani gas to Europe. Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which envisages the transportation of Azerbaijani gas to Europe, will be put into operation by 2020. BP may discover a new giant offshore field in Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani state oil company SOCAR will start detailed technical and economic research to participate in the Bulgarian gas distribution market.
  • 台湾石化报告2019年
    Taiwan's petrochemicals industry has had a significant impact on the country's economic development. The nation, however, faces strong competition from regional producers that have the advantages of larger domestic markets and relatively lower labour costs. Taiwan is currently in the process of increasing its petrochemicals capacity to meet the revived domestic consumption and take advantage of export opportunities. Taiwan caters to both the domestic and the world markets, especially mainland China. It is able to fulfil the polymer demand needs of the mainland, as there is a supply surplus in Taiwan of the five major commodity polymers - polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polystyrene (PS) and acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS). The estimated 25% surplus of PE production - 1.08mn tonnes per annum (tpa) - has found a market in China. However, Taiwan's PE exports are facing strong competition from the Middle East, which is also targeting the Chinese market. With domestic PP demand at around two-thirds of nameplate capacity, mainland China is a prime export target. Around half of Taiwan's PVC production is also exported, while a substantial percentage of PS capacity (about 80%) enters the export markets.

投资分析报告

  • 油服行业:油价回升+政策支持,国内油服行业景气向上-深度报告
    油服行业位于油气产业链上游,受油价影响呈现明显的周期性,随着油价回升,油服行业也呈现出底部复苏的态势,2017 年油服市场规模达到 2335.2 亿美元,同比增长 5.5%。竞争格局方面,国外油服行业竞争充分,行业集中度较高;国内三桶油旗下油服公司主导,民营企业快速成长。
  • 石化化工行业:技术为王,关注成长
    互联互通和LNG扩容使得北方地区LNG季节性波动减弱,保供压力降低;燃气板块整体观点偏谨慎。煤气比价过高是燃气板块的投资切入点,重点推荐煤气、煤油套利标的新奥股份和广汇能源。

综合分析报告

  • 2018年4季度我国石油和化工行业政策环境分析
    2018年4季度,相关部门继续从安全环保、行业发展、价格管理等方面保障石化行业健康运行。安全环保方面,“11·28”事件再次敲响行业警钟,提升行业安全环保工作的专项行动正式启动。中国石油和化学工业联合会认定44家石化行业绿色工厂、133种绿色产品以及3家绿色园区,逐步建立健全行业绿色标准体系,破解绿色发展难题和瓶颈,提升行业可持续发展能力。产业发展反面,发改委等七部门联合发文推动成品油质量升级,但受制于国六严格的标准规定,成品油质量升级的实施时间被不断推迟。工信部等四部门联合印发了《原材料工业质量提升三年行动方案(2018-2020年)》,对石化化工原材料质量提升提出要求。应急管理部正式下发“建立危险化学品重大危险源源长责任制”的通知,在涉及重大危险源的化工和危险化学品生产、经营企业全面实施“源长制”。成品油价格机制亟需进一步改进,2019年成品油定价机制有望受到密切关注。
  • 中加石油领域深化合作前景展望
    中国与加拿大作为世界主要的石油消费国与生产国,长久以来在石油贸易领域鲜有合作。两国石油合作集中于上游,中下游合作较少;石油运输通道无法打通,极大地限制了两国石油合作的深化发展。中资企业作为加拿大原油的需求方和上游投资方,与加拿大企业共同建设面向亚洲的石油出口通道,既符合中加双方的能源利益,也有助于双方企业发挥各自优势,提升项目建设与运营效果。建议中加两国增强政治互信,共同打造能源共同体;中国政府应引导和支持中国企业加大加拿大原油进口力度;中资企业应积极参与加拿大石油储运设施的建设与运营,推进加拿大西向石油管道与西海岸码头仓储等配套设施的投资建设项目。
  • 中国炼油行业现状及发展对策建议
    我国炼油行业的发展面临生产能力严重过剩、产品结构和产业布局不合理、两极分化严重、产品价格市场化不足、管理政策滞后等问题,难以适应新形势下的发展要求。建议国家在宏观调控、产业布局以及进出口管理政策和税收政策方面进行调整,引导产业健康发展,提高市场化水平。同时炼油企业要加大科研投入,合理安排产品结构,进一步提高炼油企业的数字化和智能化水平等。
  • 国际石油公司采购供应链管理模式解析
    作为全球最大的石油天然气能源公司之一,R公司的采购供应链管理经历了一百多年的发展,创办了一套完整、实用、可靠的采购供应链管理体系。介绍R公司上游领域采办的品类管理、全球化战略采购、采购风险管理和采购软件平台应用等。R公司的采购供应链管理为其加强采办管理、杜绝腐败、提高效率、节约成本、降低风险提供了有力的支持和保障,其管理模式对经验给国际同行具有积极借鉴作用。
  • 2018年1-11月我国石油和化工行业运行分析
    2018年1-11月,我国石油和化工行业运行呈以下特征。一是石化行业投资动力均有所好转,油气开采业和化工行业固定资产投资均高于上年同期水平。二是生产保持平稳。油气开采业生产情况有所好转,石油加工业和化学工业维持平稳增长。原油产量依然为负增长,但降幅放缓;原油加工量保持中速增长,年内增速放缓;化工产品大部分实现稳定增长,农药产量开始增长。三是11月国际油价持续下跌,国内成品油经历了三轮下调周期。在国际油价影响下,石油化工行业主营业务收入增速放缓。四是受阶段性供应紧缺及企业补货心理预期,成品油进口量攀升,累计进口增速高于上年同期,累计出口量维持稳定增长。短期内,化工行业出口贸易受中美贸易摩擦影响,出现报复性出口现象,出口交货值增速有所提高。
  • 深化成品油消费分析的几点思考
    成品油消费涉及汽车、航空、建筑施工、工矿、商业民用、水路运输、发电等众多行业,现有分析方法主要有供给侧的国家统计局口径分析法、国家发改委口径分析法,需求侧的分行业消费分析法,以及与宏观经济指标或行业指标进行关联的关联系数分析法,由于诸多限制,当前各种分析方法均有其不完善之处,需要取长补短,加以完善。本文提出的供给侧深化分析的建议主要有采用国家统计局口径的企业范围、主营炼厂和复杂系数相结合的产品收率,深化民营炼油企业的产销、替代能源和隐性资源、社会库存分析。需求侧深化分析的建议主要有深化汽车等重点行业的用油分析,深化全口径用油分析,特别是要重点分析成品油+燃料油的消费。同时,要多种方法互相印证,不断提高成品油消费分析预测水平。

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