农业农村部、财政部日前联合发布通知，2018 年将继续在全国开展国家现代农业产业园创建工作，进一步突出产业融合、农户带动、技术集成等功能作用，打造现代农业建设样板区和乡村产业兴旺引领区。

We are turning more positive towards the commodities complex and have made significant upward revisions to a large number of our commodities price forecasts for 2018 over the past several weeks, including for oil and metals. Global fundamentals remain relatively supportive for prices, amid a pickup in global economic growth this year and a gradual rise in global price inflation. We remain above consensus on oil and grains and have turned more positive than consensus on some non-ferrous metals. We maintain the view that weakening Chinese metal demand this year will weigh on ferrous metals.

我们认为最近几年的猪周期呈现出明显的供给周期，或者产能周期，或者盈利周期特征。因此，成本线将是未来猪价的一个重要参考。我们的结论是：短期（1-2年内）猪价已经接近现金成本，因此下跌空间不大。中长期（一轮周期以上）行业成本曲线呈不断下移的趋势。其结构变化是高成本的散户不断被挤出，而低成本的规模化不断壮大。