1. 关税冲击导致美国 8 月份就业数据进一步走软 2. 美国企业制造业投资相对占比连续第二季度下降 3. 美国政府利息支出占 GDP 比例降至 5 个季度低点 4. 上周标普 500 指数迷你合约投机净空头持仓下降 10% 5. 广义美元投机净多头持仓规模继续处于 5 个月高点 6. 沪深 300 指数权益风险溢价（ERP）周度更新 7. 中国 10 年期国债远期套利回报周度更新 8. 美元兑日元互换基差和美元融资溢价周度更新 9. 铜金价格比与离岸人民币汇率走势周度更新 10.中国在岸股债总回报相对表现周度更新

2025 年 8 月经济数据整体延续偏弱走势，规模以上工业增加值同比回落 0.5pct 至 5.2%，一致预期为 5.8%；社零同比增速较上月回落 0.3pct 至 3.4%，一致预期为 3.8%；1-8 月固定资产投资累计同比回落 1.1pct 至 0.5%，一致预期为 1.3%。

全球经济系统，正在开启新局，新局四条主线。国际货币系统主线、资产价格系统主线、现代产业系统主线，贸易市 场系统主线。以中国为代表的亚洲经济的崛起，在新格局中成新气象，A股、港股“新四牛”的态势初现。主线一：国际货币。国际货币，革故鼎新；国际储备，黄金归来；新兴央行，购金伊始；浪成微澜，空间广阔；美元宽松，资产利好。主线二：资产价格。A股港股，领涨全球；“新四牛”，资金流入牛，科技创新牛，制度改革牛，消费升级牛。主线三：现代产业。美好生活，全线升级；新质生产，战略新兴；AI新纪元，智火燎原；未来场景，全面应用。 主线四：贸易市场。亚洲潜力巨大；全球贸易和产业链核心；制度型开放和区域一体化。

A gaming console is a dedicated computer designed for interactive video games and viewing services. A video game console works like a PC and consists of the same components, such as CPU, GPU, and RAM. Consumers use controllers to play games. A controller is a handheld device with buttons, joysticks, or keyboards.

Gambling involves wagering money or valuables on an event with an uncertain outcome, with the primary intent of winning additional money or goods. It encompasses activities like sports betting, casino games, poker, lottery, and horse racing.

HoReCa refers to businesses that provide food, beverages and accommodations to individuals and groups, such as hotels, restaurants, cafes, bars, catering companies, and other hospitality establishments.

Human resource (HR) technology refers to the use of digital tools and software to streamline, automate, and optimize various human resource functions, such as recruitment, payroll processing, performance management, employee engagement, learning and development, and workforce analytics. These technologies help organizations improve efficiency, enhance employee experience, ensure compliance, and make data￾driven HR decisions.

Home equity lending, also known as an equity loan, home equity installment loan, or second mortgage, is a type of consumer debt. Homeowners can borrow money using home equity loans as collateral. The difference between the homes current market value and the homeowners outstanding mortgage balance determines the loan amount. Home equity loans are of two types: fixed-rate loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).

Betting on horse racing and other sports is a form of gambling that involves placing a bet on the outcome of sports events. The major objective of betting on horse racing and other sports is to win money. Online and land-based or offline betting is majorly done on various sports events. Brokers and agents act as mediators between customers and bookmakers in the betting process. Betting services are available for various sports, including football (soccer), tennis, basketball, cricket, horse racing, and baseball, among others, at both the professional and non-professional levels. In countries that have relaxed regulations related to sports betting, bettors generally bet through sportsbooks or bookmakers. On the other hand, in countries where betting is illegal, bettors bet through privately run enterprises.

An insurance brokerage is defined as an intermediary that facilitates the purchase of insurance by representing clients in negotiations with multiple insurance companies.

Insurance BPO is the practice of outsourcing specific business processes or functions in the insurance industry to third-party service providers. In this arrangement, insurance companies delegate non-core activities to third-party entities that specialize in those functions. The goal of insurance BPO is typically to increase efficiency, lower costs, and improve overall operational effectiveness, allowing the insurance company to concentrate on its core competencies.

Insurance refers to a contract between an insurance company and an individual or organization that provides financial protection against risks or uncertain events, such as loss of life, property damage, illness, or accident. The individual or organization, known as the policyholder, pays a premium to the insurance company, which then agrees to cover potential losses or damages in exchange for that premium.

Impact investing refers to the act of investing capital with the goal of generating a social or environmental impact, as well as a financial return. Instead of solely focusing on financial gains, impact investors seek to create positive change through their investments by supporting projects and companies that address issues such as poverty, climate change, and inequality. The impact can be measured through specific metrics that evaluate the progress toward achieving a desired social or environmental outcome.

Insurance claims services involve the process of managing and settling claims made by policyholders after an insured event, such as an accident, natural disaster, or health issue. These services ensure that claims are processed efficiently, accurately, and fairly, providing financial compensation to the insured parties as per the terms of their insurance policies.

Insurance third party administrators (TPAs) are companies or entities that provide administrative services related to insurance policies and claims on behalf of insurance companies or self-insured entities.

InsurTech refers to the innovative use of technology to enhance and streamline the insurance industry. This includes the application of artificial intelligence, machine learning, blockchain, and big data analytics to improve efficiency, customer experience, and risk management. They leverage digital platforms to provide services such as online policy management, automated underwriting, and real-time customer support.

Internet of Things (IoT) security refers to the practices and technologies designed to protect connected devices and networks within the IoT ecosystem. This field is critical as it addresses the vulnerabilities that arise when everyday objects, ranging from home appliances to industrial machines, are connected to the internet.

IT solutions are widely implemented in enterprises to manage the IT environment and streamline operational workflow and supply-chain management systems. However, IT infrastructure is often managed by third-party service providers to cut costs and manage the processes efficiently. IoT managed service is a key part of IT services, and it refers to the management of in-house and cloud-based functions of client organizations by third-party service providers. Managed services help organizations enhance their operational performance and cut down expenses.

_十五五_的三条经济线索-宏观经济专题研究-国信证券

【债券日报】内外动能或进入转换期-9月经济数据解读